中国失衡时代是否已终结

过去十年,全球性不均衡问题逐渐成为各国宏观经济政策的中心议题。本文重点分析了当前中国的外部失衡问题,研究了2008年后促使中国经常账户盈余下降的影响因素,预测了中国外部顺差的走向。本文认为,未来几年中国的经常账户盈余将保持适度。外部失衡不能反映当今中国国际收支的主要特征。随着中国国内经济越来越依赖投资的拉动,内部失衡问题将愈发明显。     

Rural poverty in Mexico: assets and livelihood strategies among the Mayas of Yucatán

Understanding poverty and sustainability needs livelihood studies that acknowledge heterogeneity at the community and household level. This is particularly true for Latin America where inequality and ethnicity are important aspects of poverty and sustainability. This paper is a detailed examination of the natural resources, socio-economic assets and livelihood strategies of two Mayan communities of the Mexican State of Yucatán. There were three fundamental objectives: to elucidate the people's perceptions of poverty, to analyse their resource use and livelihood strategies, and to suggest ways in which access to markets can reduce poverty and enhance sustainable development. Using qualitative and quantitative methodologies, the dominance of certain successful strategies are made clear. First, milpa—the traditional system of maize production—is a way of life for the Mayas. Secure access to maize-producing land is a valuable asset, partly because it also attracts government subsidies. Second, ownership of small livestock is also part of Mayan life. Ownership of other assets such as beehives gives access to (relatively) lucrative product markets. Third, active agribusiness marketing also requires assets: ownership of transport services; finance to assemble and sell products such as forest fruits, honey and maize; business skills and an ability to create commercial linkages to traders. Appropriate interventions for different wealth groups are suggested to enhance sustainable development of the communities.     

Models of crisis management: an evaluation of their value for strategic planning in the international travel industry

Tourism is particularly prone to external shocks, which by their nature are unpredictable and need to be addressed through effective crisis management processes. The paper reviews the literature relating to crisis management in tourism and identifies and briefly critiques several models that have been developed to help managers in their strategic planning for such contingencies. The terrorist attacks of ‘9/11’ are used as an exemplar of the type of external shock that can lead to crisis if travel industry managers fail to take immediate and decisive action. This paper discusses the reactions of leading UK based tour operators to the terrorist attacks and a case study is presented to examine the reaction of a particular company to ‘9/11’ and to review the ‘turnaround’ strategies used. The crisis management process model is compared and contrasted with the steps actually undertaken at the company. It is evident that there are wider lessons for the travel industry including the need to: integrate crisis management with strategic planning processes, prepare detailed contingency plans, define decisional roles and responsibilities, and to retain a degree of flexibility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Satisfying the basics: reflections from a consumer perspective of attractions management at the Millennium Dome,London

The Millennium Dome, London, was supposed to be the centrepiece of UK celebrations marking the start of the twenty‐first century. Unwittingly, it also emerged as the centrepiece of much media negativity and scrutiny — for the full length of its (projected) 1 year of opening. Four years after the doors closed, and with the perspective of time, this study reflects on the Millennium Dome as a case study of visitor attractions management — with data drawn from the consumer perspective at the time of opening. The focus of the primary research is on the satisfaction of visitors to the Millennium Dome. This was carried out when the attraction was weathering the media storm following its opening. Both quantitative and qualitative data was gathered from 530 exit questionnaires and 350 qualitative interviews. The quantitative data revealed visitor assessments of the experience of the Millennium Dome as a whole, and their assessments of its constituent parts (zones). The findings of the qualitative interviews led to the construction of a typology of meanings for visitors to the Millennium Dome. Even though time has elapsed since closure, both the quantitative and the qualitative findings still have a wider application in the interpretation of the visitor experience in attractions. Recommendations at the time indicated a need for management to focus on ‘the basics’ of the visitor experience with the addendum that a failure to do so could detract from ‘the most amazing day out ever’ or, indeed, ‘a very special day’ — and to ensure a closer match between marketing expectations and the reality of the experience. Reflection has not altered such often neglected but fundamental tenets. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quality perceptions under evolving information conditions: Implications for diet,health and consumer satisfaction

Consumers’ perception of, and satisfaction with, fruit quality is an important issue for both public policy and commercial reasons. However, because of information problems, consumers cannot easily choose fruits of a quality most likely to satisfy their preferences and health needs. The research reported here employed an experimental auction method to test perceptions of fruit quality by evaluating the willingness to pay (WTP) of consumers for five different varieties of soft citrus under three different information conditions: visual inspection of the fruit before peeling; visual inspection after peeling; and after consumption. Significant differences were found in valuations of the different varieties as consumers gained information. Conclusions are drawn about the value of the methodology and the results themselves, and implications are inferred for policy and for growers and traders. It is argued that product information should be oriented not just towards nutritional education but also towards increasing the pleasure of healthy eating.     

Dynamic panel data estimation of an integrated Grossman and Becker–Murphy model of health and addiction

We propose a dynamic panel data approach to estimate a model that integrates the Becker–Murphy theory of rational addiction with the Grossman model o     

The role of science in resolution of environmental crises at Kesterson Reservoir and Mono Lake, California

Two events in California's recent history have had a profound impact in shaping present and future water resources policy: the selenium contamination at Kesterson Reservoir and the battle to save Mono Lake. The irrigation-induced selenium toxicity discovered at Kesterson changed public perception of agriculture as a benign consumer of water, eroded the political power of the agricultural lobby, and has contributed to a revision in the allocation of water between the cities, agriculture and the environment. The Mono Lake Decisions of 1983 and 1994 set an equally important precedent in affirming the State's public trust obligation to preserve public resources and to reconsider previous water right allocations in the light of evolving knowledge and changing priorities. Both of these issues were important precursors for the current multibillion dollar State and Federal (CALFED) initiative to 'fix' the myriad of biologic, hydrologic and water quality problems of the San Francisco Bay estuary. In this paper, we compare the Kesterson and Mono Lake controversies and discuss the role of science and research in attempting to resolve these issues. We conclude by drawing linkages to the current CALFED initiative and suggesting implications for future water quality management in California's lakes and reservoirs.     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION

The volatility of an asset is a primary input to the portfolio selection problem. Information about volatility is available from two sources, namely the share market and the option market. This paper examines the forecasting performance, over a three month investment horizon, of time series forecasts (from the share market) and option based implied volatilities. Three time series models, including GARCH, are used and twenty four implied volatility estimation models are employed. Using a data set of twelve UK companies, it is demonstrated that implied volatilities produce better individual forecasts than time series. However, more remarkably, forecasts combining implied volatilies and time series estimates significantly outperform both component forecasts.     

Nigerian SMEs: Commitment and loyalty to their banks

Commitment has a crucial role to play in underpinning long-term business relationships, and as such, is well established in the related academic literature. Limited research does, however, exist pertaining to the specific relationships between SMEs and their banks. This paper presents and assesses commitment relationship framework that seeks to evaluate such relationships. Various validated scale-sets from the existing studies are combined here to assess commitment, advocacy and repurchase intention. Data were collected from 199 SMEs via interviews with owners or senior (financial) managers. Their assessment involved exploratory factor analysis to determine underlying data structure, with internal reliability assessment of the identified factors. Commitment is established around two components; affective and calculative, whilst advocacy and repurchase intention converge into a single behavioural intentions factor. The two-dimensional presentation of commitment and behavioural intentions are also distinct. Originality lies in the validation of commitment and behavioural intention constructs within this specific business arena and geographical location, as well as showcasing research that involves engagement with smaller organisations rather than their larger counterparts in the consideration of bank performance.     

To touch or not to touch; that is the question. Should consumers always be encouraged to touch products,and does it always alter product perception?

It has previously been suggested that consumers' product evaluations are positively affected by tactile interaction. However, it is not known if it is applicable to products that people usually touch for brief periods of time. This study sets out to explore whether it is possible to influence consumers' tactile perception of fast‐moving consumer goods by altering the surface texture. In this study individual tactile sensing and visual appreciation were compared with the combined visual and tactile sensing of surface textures for two types of products (soap and biscuits). Three types of textures on the outside of either a soap or biscuit box and three separate sample swatches of the textures used on the boxes were used in the study. The three soap or biscuit boxes were visually presented to the participants. This was followed by a blind haptic evaluation of the three textures, and then by a combined visual and tactile evaluation of three differently textured boxes (either soap or biscuit boxes). The results suggest that a consumer's perception of the packaging of fast‐moving consumer goods is affected more by vision than by touch, which raises some questions with regard to when marketers should encourage consumers to engage in extensive tactile interaction prior to purchase. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.