SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifications that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing and policy.     

Online Shoppers' Perceptions and Use of Comparison-Shopping Sites: An Exploratory Study

Comparison-shopping sites currently offer online shoppers various combinations of free services such as price comparisons, merchant ratings, links to e-tailers’ websites, and/or customer reviews in the search results page(s). The utility and market values of shopping comparison sites have attracted Internet giants such as eBay, Google, and Yahoo to the extent of developing or acquiring such sites. Scholarly research on comparison-shopping sites has focused on (1) trust in online recommendation agents, and (2) methods used by electronic agents to produce the recommendations. Our study explored how online shoppers’ attitudes toward comparison-shopping sites impact perceived credibility and usefulness of these sites. We also examined online shoppers’ merchant selection criteria and their likelihood to continue using comparison-shopping sites. One interesting finding from our study was that merchants need to be strong on site ratings and brand awareness to appeal to a wide online market. The finding dispelled the notion that e-tailers presented by shopping comparison sites need to compete, basically, only on price.     

Online Shopper Reviews: Ramifications for Promotion and Website Utility

Today's consumers are empowered with online shopper reviews which are mostly written and posted by buyers, customers, users, or visitors at a website. Shopper reviews will become more popular and ubiquitous in e-tailing in the near future. However, the marketing literature is still limited when it comes to knowledge of how shoppers perceive and use online reviews in their purchase decisions. Hence, this study explored shoppers’ predispositions toward positive or negative reviews and examined the impact of consumers’ attitudes and usage patterns on their perceived helpfulness and credibility of online shopper/peer reviews. One interesting finding from our study of 342 online shoppers was that consumers who would pay greater attention to positive reviews gave reviews more credible and usefulness ratings than their counterparts who would focus on the negative reviews.     

Do REITs Manipulate Their Financial Results Around Seasoned Equity Offerings? Evidence from US Equity REITs

This study addresses two questions: Is there earnings management in the REIT industry around seasoned equity offerings (SEO)? How is earnings management affected by financial and governance factors? Discretionary accruals methods are used to measure earnings management. In addition, the difference between actual and calculated FFO is used to capture the potential FFO manipulation. We examine how these manipulation measures change in the five quarters around SEOs. Moreover, we investigate how a REIT’s earnings management decision is affected by its financial structure, operating style, external auditor and corporate governance. We find clear evidence of FFO manipulation around SEOs, but the extent of earnings management is relatively weaker. We find that REITs issuing SEOs more often are more aggressive in manipulating FFO than earnings. Moreover, there is a notable difference between these two types of financial results manipulation. A mean-reversion trend is found in discretionary accruals, but not for FFO manipulation. Manipulation in financial results is influenced by various factors. A diminished capability to generate cash flow, high leverage, volatile cash flow, frequent SEOs and slack corporate governance are all the features of REITs more likely to manipulate financial results.     

REIT Institutional Ownership Dynamics and the Financial Crisis

Collectively, institutional investors hold large ownership stakes in REITs. The traditional view is that institutions are both long-term and passive investors. The financial crisis beginning in 2007 provides an opportunity to analyze the investment choices of institutional investors before, during, and after the crisis. Our results indicate that institutional ownership increased prior to the financial crisis, declined significantly during the period of market stress, but rebounded after. These results hold for four institutional investor subtypes: mutual funds/investment advisors, bank trusts, insurance companies, and other institutions, with mutual funds/investment advisors and bank trusts most clearly exhibiting this pattern. We also find evidence that institutions actively manage their REIT portfolios, displaying a “flight to quality” after the market downturn by reducing beta and individual risk exposure, and by increasing ownership in larger REITs.     

“Since You’re Asking. . . ”: Free Text Commentaries in an Epidemiological Study of Low Back Pain Consulters in Primary Care

As part of a longitudinal mixed-method study on low back pain (LBP), free-text comments were invited at the end of the 12 month follow-up survey questionnaire. 80% of respondents used this option and provided a wealth of material so that comparisons could be made with survey and interview results. People reported pain in other parts of the body apart from LBP, and illustrated the impact of LBP on physical ability and work, psychological well-being and social activities. Free-text material offers valuable insights that strengthen the findings of the survey, and the study as a whole.     

Quarterly reporting in a voluntary disclosure environment: Its benefits, drawbacks and determinants

We primarily examine three issues pertaining to quarterly reporting; its benefits, drawbacks and determinants. This study is conducted in a voluntary-disclosure environment with respect to reporting quarterly earnings. On the benefits side, we find that quarterly reporting is associated with higher analyst following, and on the drawbacks side we find it is associated with high price volatility. If left to its own discretion, we find that a firm with high growth prospects, large size and a technology orientation is likely to disclose earnings on a quarterly basis.     

Seasoned Equity Issuance by Japan and Singapore REITs

This paper examines the effects of market conditions and asset acquisitions on announcement returns and the probability of equity offerings by REITs in Japan and Singapore. The Asian experience is interesting given the prevalence of yield accretive strategies, but more so, we establish that past acquisitions have a significant effect on the probability of equity offering, over and beyond the effect of debt and market conditions. A contemporaneous acquisition announcement mitigates the negative price effect of the SEO announcement. We also find that equity clustering affects market reaction and SEO issuance.     

Water Environment Research Foundation (WERF) anaerobic digestion and related processes, odour and health effects study.

Biosolids odour emissions can affect the ability of wastewater utilities to implement beneficial biosolids processing and reuse programs. Communities often become more sensitised and vocal about biosolids issues, once they experience odours emanating from a nearby site. Odour impacts from biosolids, including potential human health effects, have been targeted recently by many national and local newspapers, citizens' groups, and regulatory agencies, who have raised significant concerns, ranging from viable disposal methods/sites to outright bans. Many national and local regulatory agencies in the United States are considering biosolids disposal bans in their communities because of misinformation, poor science, and citizen pressure, but primarily because of odour impact concerns. The wastewater industry has a relatively poor understanding of the operations and treatment parameters that influence biosolids odour emissions. Thus, wastewater treatment plants are often unable to control the odour quality of the biosolids that are delivered into communities. A research study to demonstrate the influence of anaerobic digestion, mechanical dewatering, and storage design and operating parameters on the odour quality of the final product was performed and is the subject of this paper. Established and new sampling and analytical methods were used to measure biosolids odour emissions from 11 test sites in North America. By determining the impacts of these control variables on biosolids odour quality, design and operations of anaerobic digestion systems might be enhanced. This paper also summarises a corollary study performed as part of the WERF research study that addresses the health effects of biosolids odours.