2008:全球经济预测和中期展望

一、全球经济展望 实际上要想做得精确非常容易,但是要想做正确是很难的,经济学家在社会当中只会"正确"两字,所以我想给大家介绍各种各样的想法,并进行讨论,你们可以自己判断经济的前景到底如何,以及我们面临怎样的风险.     

JETS,PLUMES AND BUOYANT JETS IN STATIC ENVIRONMENT

Turbulence represents an essential aspect in atmospheric and oceanic circulations.In particu-lar,it is a preponderant factor in the dispersion of pollutants of artificial or natural origin.Thevertical turbulent jets,plumes and buoyant jets discharging into static environment is one of themost important and basic flow patterns related with the environment pollution.These flows havenumerous important applications,for example,thrust augmentors,waste disposal plumes fromstacks and combustion systems,and significant problems of turbulent diffusion.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES AND NUMERICAL CALCULATION ON TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER OF WATER FLOW ALONG CURVED SURFACE

This paper will introduce experimental studies and numerical calculation onturbulent boundary layer of water flow along curved surface in our country in recent years.Onthe basis of the experimental studies,the effects of curvature and roughness on velocitydistribution and pressure distribution and the change of turbulent flow boundary layer onoverflow bucket concave surface is discussed.We proposed the empirical formula of velocity,pressure and the change of turbulent flow boundary layer on outlet bucket concave.According tothe momentum principle,we have deduced the momentum integral equation full water depthboundary layer and using the element as control unit inside the boundary layer on concavesurface of bucket.Combining with continuity equation,we have computed the boundary layerdevelopment on the bucket of a spillway.Compared with the field experimental data,thecalculation results are available.Under polar coordinates,a mathematical model for simulatingtime-averaged flow characteristics in concave surface of bucket is established.The turbulent flowfield on concave surface of bucket is calculated by SIMPLE method and this mathematicalmodel.The flow velocity field,pressure field,distribution of turbulent kinetic energy,distribution of turbulent energy dissipating rate and distribution of shear stress are available.Thecalculation value is consistent with measured test data.     

HYDRODYNAMIC FORCE ON SMOOTH HORIZONTAL CYLINDER IN UNIFORM OSCILLATORY FLOW

ＨＹＤＲＯＤＹＮＡＭＩＣ　ＦＯＲＣＥ　ＯＮ　ＳＭＯＯＴＨ　ＨＯＲＩＺＯＮＴＡＬ　ＣＹＬＩＮＤＥＲ　ＩＮ　ＵＮＩＦＯＲＭ　ＯＳＣＩＬＬＡＴＯＲＹ　ＦＬＯＷＨＹＤＲＯＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＦＯＲＣＥＯＮＳＭＯＯＴＨＨＯＲＩＺＯＮＴＡＬＣＹＬＩＮＤＥＲＩＮＵＮＩＦ...     

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF WHOLE FIELD BEHAVIOR FOR ROUND BUOYANT JET

ＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＳＩＭＵＬＡＴＩＯＮＳＯＦＷＨＯＬＥＦＩＥＬＤＢＥＨＡＶＩＯＲＦＯＲＲＯＵＮＤＢＵＯＹＡＮＴＪＥＴＬｉＷｅｉ，ＨｕａｉＷｅｎ－ｘｉｎ（ＷｕｈａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙｏｆＨｙｄｒａｕｌｉｃａｎｄＥｌｅｃｔｒｉｃＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，...     

OSCILLATION AMPLITUDE OF THE FREE END OF A FLEXIBLY MOUNTED RIGID CYLINDER IN TRIANGLE ARRANGEMENT

In this paper,the oscillation amplitude of the free end of a group of threecylinders are studied.The three cylinders are erected at the vertices of an equilateral trian-gle,and three arrangements are made in this study.One of the three cylinders is served asa working cylinder which is mounted by a flexible cantilever and two accelerometers areattached on the free end in two directions.The results of the three-cylinder arrangementare compared with those of two cylinders in tandem/side-by-side arrangement in the samecondition.The experimental results show that the rear cylinder of a group of three cylin-ders is affected more seriously than that of the corresponding two cylinders in the contrastarrangement.The main direction of oscillation is changed.The transversal oscillation isstronger than the longitudinal oscillation in the three-cylinder arrangement.On the con-trary,the transversal oscillation is much weaker than the longitudinal oscillation in two-cylinder arrangement.The largest transversal oscillat     

EFFECT OF STREAMLINE CURVATURE AND SOME OTHER CONDITIONS ON THE TURBULENT STRUCTURES IN THE OTHER REGION OF AN OBSTACLE

ＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＳＴＲＥＡＭＬＩＮＥＣＵＲＶＡＴＵＲＥＡＮＤＳＯＭＥＯＴＨＥＲＣＯＮＤＩＴＩＯＮＳＯＮＴＨＥＴＵＲＢＵＬＥＮＴＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＯＴＨＥＲＲＥＧＩＯＮＯＦＡＮＯＢＳＴＡＣＬＥＬｉｕＳｈｉ－ｈｅ（ＷｕｈａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔ...     

AN EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE STARTING FLOW OF A UNIFORMLY ACCELERATING CIRCULAR CYLIINDER

The starting flow around a uniformly accelerated circular cylinder is investigatedby flow visualization techncque and solving N-S equations numerically in detail.The results ofthe starting flow are similar with those of the impulsively started one.At lower Re_α,numbers the“phenomenon a”is revealed;the“phenomenon β”appears at higher Re_α numbers,but withonly one secondary vortex.At the early stage of the starting vortex formation,the flow islaminar;at the later stage,the flow transforms into turbulent flow.The velocity distribution inthe flow field is measured with the multiwires installment.The calculational results are comparedwith the results of experiment,and both are in agreement with each other.     

NUMERICAL MODEL FOR DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOW

ＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＭＯＤＥＬＦＯＲＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＳＩＭＵＬＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＲＡＦＦＩＣＦＬＯＷＷｕＺｈｅｎｇ；ＺｅｎｇＬｉ－ｎｏｎｇ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔＡｐｐｌｉｅｄＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃｓ，ＦｕｄａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｓｈａｇｈａｉ２００４３３，Ｐ...