What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

CEPA对福建经贸的影响及有效应对

一、CEPA出台背景 香港经济面临回归以后最困难时期。经历了亚洲金融风暴冲击的香港经济,在2000年经济强势反弹后,又因世界经济大气候而逐步陷入低谷,SARS侵袭更使香港经济雪上加霜。目前,香港经济面临着产业空心化,90％的制造业向内地转移;经济增长长期低迷;失业率居高不下;民众不满情绪增加等问题。 CEPA政策出台的直接目的。通过降低关税壁垒和非关税壁垒,促进内地与     

全球存款保险制度：如何运作？

1.简介 在过去的二十年中,一股银行体制危机浪潮席卷全球。这股浪潮袭击了发达国家和发展中国家,在93个国家造成了112起体制性危机,在46个国家中造成51起边线危机。 大规模银行危机的扩散是极具破坏性的,且代价昂贵。储户失去了使用他们资金的权利,     

水轮机运行经历的重大问题(美国陆军工程师团的经验)

美国陆军工程师团经管运行的有344台水轮机,有些水轮机运行已超过50年。某些机组曾经历过重大的运行问题。为获得满意的解决,在工程师团成员、设计者、制造者和运行人员之间的有效合作是必需的。美国陆军工程师团已建成的水力发电设施遍布全美国,现在仍有70％在运行。其规模可从弗吉尼亚州罗诺克河上的14MW费尔波特水电站起,到位于华盛顿州和俄勒冈州哥伦比亚河上的2200     

SIMILARITY LAW OF FLUCTUATING PRESSURE WITHIN HYDRAULIC JUMP AREA

Through a series of model tests of five scales for 2-D free hydraulic jump, the da-ta of fluctuating pressure acting on the floor level within the hydraulic jump were obtained. Dur-ing the experiments, Froude number varied from 2.94 to 8.61, and Reynolds number rangedfrom 2×10~4 to 6×10~5. Experiment results indicate that the amplitude scale of fluctuating pres-sure is the length scale of model, i. e. P'=L, which agrees with gravity similarity law: Thefrequency scale of the fluctuating pressure is a unity i. e., f=1, which does not satisfy thegravity similarity law.     

THE FLOW PRODUCED IN PARTICLE-SUSPENSION BY AN INFINITE ROTATING DISK:SERIES SOLUTION

To the flow produced in particle-suspension by a rotating disk of infinite extent,the asymptotic behavior at infinity is analyzed.A corresponding series solution is presented.It isshown that this approach yields widely valid solutions of high accuracy for all the cases in whichthat suction or weak injection at the disk surface exists.For the cases that strong injection or par-ticle-free band exists,the series method fails.     

TURBULENCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT WITH A SILICON PIEZORE-SISTANCE BEAM

A newly developed turbulence measurement instrument is introduced in the paper.The transducer of the device is based on the principle of the effect of silicon piezoresistance that isintegrated in a Wheatstone bridge on a pure silicon beam. At one end of the beam, a small lightball is installed as the target forced by the water flow. The other parts are prevented from thewater flow with a sophisticated stainless steel tube. The instrument can be used to measure turbu-lent velocities either in clear Water or in flows bearing hyperconcentration of sediment. It can al-so be used to measure velocities in both glass flume and model experiments as well as in pipe ex-periment by being mounted in a special way.     

提高动力问题直接积分法的精度

一、概述在结构动力分析中,广泛采用直接积分法求解时域内的运动方程。主要的方法分两类。第一类为显式方法。即将加速度和速度用连续的位移值表示,在运动方程中,加速度和速度被每一时间步长内所要求出的位移矢量所代替。这类方法的主要区别在于有各种不同的假定,它们的—个主要缺陷就是它们是条件稳定的。事实上可以说明所选时间步长增量必须远