Hydro-economic Modeling in River Basin Management: Implications and Applications for the European Water Framework Directive

Economic ideas and processes are becoming increasingly integrated with more traditional engineering and hydrologic models of water management problems. Combining economic management concepts and performance indicators with an engineering-level of understanding of a hydrologic system can provide results and insights more directly relevant for water management decisions and policies. When such models are developed and used with involvement of stakeholders, they can become a basis for shared understanding of water problems as a foundation for negotiated management and policy solutions. When implemented with optimization software, integrated hydro-economic models also can suggest promising innovative solutions for policy-makers to consider. Their applications to river basin management problems are reviewed. Economic and integrated economic-engineering-hydrologic modeling is then discussed in the context of the evolving European Water Framework Directive. Relevant items are cost recovery and water pricing, cost-effectiveness of water management measures, and public participation in decision processes.     

Price-maker型水电厂策略性报价

用古诺模型研究了Price-maker型水电厂在电力市场下的策略报价问题.将系统中各厂商的竞争简化为己方和虚拟对手组成的双人博弈,提出一种基于历史数据、分析对手行为的可行方法.该方法通过分析历史可获得数据,求取对手成本函数参数及系统的逆需求函数,由此获得合理的对手策略估计,并求取在此可能对手策略下的己方最优策略,从而达到己方收益最大的目标.     

Preliminary Assessment of Contaminants in Soft Sediments of the Detroit River

Soft sediments from the Detroit River were analyzed for the USEPA priority pollutants to generally characterize contaminant distribution. Forty-three were detected. Highest heavy metal concentrations were found in the Trenton Channel and immediately downstream of Grosse Ile. They ranged from an area mean (N = 2) of 0.19 mg/kg mercury to 338.7 mg/kg zinc (dry weight). Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons ranged from 0.1 mg/kg to 38.8 mg/kg (mean, N = 2) with the highest levels near Grosse Ile. PCBs ranged from 0.015 mg/kg to 1.7 mg/kg (mean, N = 2). Organochlorine pesticides were not detected except for a trace of heptachlor in one sample. Sediment contamination in the Detroit River is widespread with higher concentrations on the U.S. side downstream of the Rouge River and in the Trenton Channel. The significance of these in-place pollutants to biota and as a source to Lake Erie is still unknown.     

Wastewater treatment in tsunami affected areas of Thailand by constructed wetlands.

The tsunami of December 2004 destroyed infrastructure in many coastal areas in South-East Asia. In January 2005, the Danish Government gave a tsunami relief grant to Thailand to re-establish the wastewater management services in some of the areas affected by the tsunami. This paper describes the systems which have been built at three locations: (a) Baan Pru Teau: A newly-built township for tsunami victims which was constructed with the contribution of the Thai Red Cross. Conventional septic tanks were installed for the treatment of blackwater from each household and its effluent and grey water (40 m3/day) are collected and treated at a 220 m2 subsurface flow constructed wetland. (b) Koh Phi Phi Don island: A wastewater collection system for the main business and hotel area of the island, a pumping station and a pressure pipe to the treatment facility, a multi-stage constructed wetland system and a system for reuse of treated wastewater. The constructed wetland system (capacity 400 m3/day) consists of vertical flow, horizontal subsurface flow, free water surface flow and pond units. Because the treatment plant is surrounded by resorts, restaurants and shops, the constructed wetland systems are designed with terrains as scenic landscaping. (c) Patong: A 5,000 m2 constructed wetland system has been established to treat polluted water from drainage canals which collect overflow from septic tanks and grey water from residential areas. It is envisaged that these three systems will serve as prototype demonstration systems for appropriate wastewater management in Thailand and other tropical countries.     

Baseline assessment of metals and hydrocarbons in the sediments of Lake Mulwala, Australia

An assessment of hydrocarbon and metal/metalloids (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, selenium, zinc) contamination in sediments from Lake Mulwala, Australia, was undertaken. The objectives of the study were: (i) to determine the extent of contamination in the lake sediments, compared to Australian and international sediment quality guidelines, and (ii) to attempt to identify the contaminant sources to the lake. With the exception of a few samples containing elevated levels of arsenic and/or mercury, the levels of all contaminants in the sediment samples taken from the lake were below the ‘lower trigger’ of the Australian Sediment Quality Guidelines that would warrant further investigation. High molecular weight hydrocarbons (up to 700 mg kg⁻¹) were found in most sediment samples. Non‐metric statistical analysis indicated that the contaminant distribution was different in different parts of the lake, with the lowest concentrations generally found at the influent to the lake. No definitive source(s) of contamination could be identified for either metalloids or hydrocarbons.     

Simultaneous visualisation of biofouling, organic and inorganic particle fouling on separation membranes.

Fouling is a major problem in membrane processes of water treatment. It can be caused by the deposition of inorganic and organic particulate material, and of microbial cells which may subsequently form biofilms. In practice, usually more than one foulant participates in the formation of membrane deposits. Knowledge of the composition of fouling layers is important for the development of appropriate countermeasures. For this purpose, an experimental system was established for the generation and microscopic visualisation of mixed deposits, using fluorescently labelled model foulants: (i) drinking-water bacteria stained with nucleic acid-specific dyes (biofouling), (ii) synthetic clay mineral laponite stained with rhodamine 6G (inorganic particle fouling), and (iii) fluorescently labelled polystyrene microspheres (organic particle fouling). Polycarbonate and polyethersulfone membranes were challenged with these foulants by dead-end filtration. On the basis of different fluorescent labels, the single foulants in these mixed deposits could be visualised separately by confocal laser scanning microscopy which, in combination with image analysis, allowed the generation of three-dimensional views of the complete deposits. This method offers the possibility for the estimation of quantitative surface coverage by foulants and for the determination of the efficacy of cleaning measures with respect to the removal of different foulants.     

Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

Manipulating uncertainty

Uncertainty about the distributional incidence of policy reforms may, if it impinges selectively on particular subsets of voters, alter the direction of the majority vote. This possibility should be a matter of special concern when subject to potential manipulation by a purposeful agent such as a Leviathan-like bureaucracy. This paper discusses a constitutional defense against such prospect. This paper was prepared for a conference on “Constitutional Status Quo and Prospects for Change” held at George Mason University in April, 1994. I am grateful to participants in that conference and to my colleagues at Nova, especially to Mário Páscoa, for their comments and criticisms. I also benefited from comments of an anonymous referee. Responsibility for errors remains with me.