滑坡相似材料试验结果优化分析研究

在运用模糊综合评判确定的滑坡相似材料试验配合比隶属度基础上，利用方差分析确定各因素的数学优化区间，结合变量有上下界的改进单纯形法，获得技术，经济上的最佳配合比，克服了统计优化理论不能在连续区间寻优的缺点，这对从事滑坡相似材料试验研究具有一定的实际意义。     

现役水工钢闸门结构可靠性鉴定时荷载取值分析

采用类比法确定现役水工钢闸门结构的荷载评估基准期。以静水压力为例，得了其在荷载评估基准期内的统计参数，讨论了闸门主梁受弯碱坏时可靠指标随继续使用期的变化。     

Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returns on derivative and underlying securities should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster. The use of high-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time interval to measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of some or many missing observations, causing traditional estimators to either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations. We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships between the cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futures returns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately 10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash market is not completely unidirectional.     

DIRECT RESONANCE OF TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAVER OVER COMPLIANT WALLS

１．　ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅｍａｉｎｇｏａｌｏｆｔｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｉｓｔｏｅｘｐｌｏｒｅｔｈｅｐｏｓｓｉｂｉｌｉｔｙｔｏｌｅａｒｎｍｏｒｅａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆｔｕｒｂｕｌｅｎｔｂｏｕｎｄａｒｙｌａｙｅｒｆｌｏｗｉｎｔｅｒａｃｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｉｔｓｅｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｎｃｏｍｐｌｉａｎｔｗａｌｌｐｅｒｆｏｒｍａｎｃｅ．Ｔｈｅｒｅａｒｅｃｅｒｔａｉｎｐｒｅｒｅｑｕｉｓｉｔｅｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｓｔｏｆｕｒｔｈｅｒｔｈｅｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍ，ｉ．ｅ．ｔｈｅｃｏ…     

Programme Evaluation with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Selective Implementation: The Mexican PROGRESA Impact on Child Nutrition

This paper considers the impact of Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación ( PROGRESA ), a large Mexican rural anti-poverty programme that had an evaluation sample in which overall treatment was randomly assigned to some communities but not others, on child nutrition. When we examine the impact of PROGRESA based on the presumption of randomized allocations, we find that PROGRESA had no or even a negative impact on child nutrition. However, not all children designated to receive nutritional supplements actually did so. Our preferred estimates – child fixed-effects estimates that control for unobserved heterogeneity that is correlated with access to the supplement – indicate a significantly positive and fairly substantial programme effect of the nutritional supplements on children 12–36 months. They imply an increase of about a sixth in mean growth per year for these children and a lower probability of stunting. Effects are somewhat larger for children from poorer communities but whose mothers are functionally literate. The long-term consequences of these improvements are non-trivial; its impact working through adult height alone could result in a 2.9% increase in lifetime earnings.     

改善投资与消费关系的宏观思考

近年来,我国投资和消费关系不协调问题日益突出。当前,投资率接近改革开放以来最高点,而消费率则降为1978年以来的最低水平,并已连续5年下降。持续50多年的投资主导型发展模式,对消费增长形成了抑制,使城乡居民生活条件改善受到影响,有悖于以人为本的科学发展观的宗旨,也导致我国国民经济的粗放型发展,加重了我国资源消耗、能源紧缺、环境污染和生态破坏;增强了经济增长对出口的严重依赖,加大了经济运行的风险,也造成银行呆坏账增加、金融风险加大、城乡差距扩大、劳动就业困难等经济和社会问题,使经济社会的稳定、协调和持续发展面临威胁,…     

南水北调西线工程可调水量分析

在受水区缺水形势严峻的情况下，引水工程可调水量的确定主要与三个因素有关：一是引水河流及引水坝址径流量；二是坝址上下游用水要求；三是引水水库工程规模。在考虑各种因素影响后，提出各引水坝址可调水量占坝比径流量的比例在70％左右比较合适，按现阶段推荐的两种方案，可调水量可达160亿－170亿m^3.     

“三国演义”，麈战纺织

9月5日中国与欧盟经过长达48小时的唇枪舌战，终于达成协议，圆满解决了中欧纺织品贸易的滞港争端。9月1日紧急进行的中美纺织品第四轮磋商依然未果，“拉锯战”被拖至9月下旬，而且前途未卜，恰似给美国造成巨大损失的“卡特里娜”飓风，近期内依然“挥之不去”，令业内人士揪心。     

MODELING OF WATER DYNAMICS AND POLLUTANT SPREADING IN THE LUOMAHU RESERVOIR FOR WATER TRANSFER FORM SOUTH TO NORTH OF CHINA

1 .　ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＷａｔｅｒＴｒａｎｓｆｅｒＦｒｏｍＳｏｕｔｈＴｏＮｏｒｔｈＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ(ＷＴＦＳＴＮＰ)ｉｓａｇｒｅａｔｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎｔｏｓｏｌｖｅｔｈｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｏｆｗａｔｅｒｓｈｏｒｔａｇｅｉｎｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈａｎｄｃｅｎｔｒａｌｐａｒｔｓｏｆＣｈｉ ｎａ .Ｔｈｉｓｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ ,ｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇＥａｓｔ ,Ｃｅｎｔｒａｌ ａｎｄＷｅｓｔ Ｌｉｎｅ ,ｗｉｌｌｄｒａｗｗａｔｅｒｆｒｏｍｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒｔｏｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈａｎｄｃｅｎｔｅｒｏｆＣｈｉｎａｓｏｔｈａ…     

论废旧家电回收利用主体的责任--《废旧家电及电子产品回收处理管理条例》(征求意见稿)之评析

废旧家电的回收利用、再商品化已经成为世界的潮流，国外许多国家相继通过法律来引导并建立完善的废旧家电回收利用体系。我国新近出台的《废旧家电及电子产品回收处理管理条例》(征求意见稿)也对回收利用行为进行了规范。要想建立并完善废旧家电的回收利用体系．就必须明确各责任主体包括生产者、销售商、进口商、消费者，在废旧家电回收利用中所应承担的责任。通过对国外立法的比较分析，以及对《征求意见稿》中关于废旧家电回收主体承担责任有关规定的评析，在对该征求意见稿肯定的同时，提出包括消费者付费、责任比例细化等建议。