Optimizing Water Management for Irrigation Under Climate Uncertainty: Evaluating Operational and Structural Alternatives in the Lower Republican River Basin,Kansas, USA

Structural and operational management methods are used to meet water demands in watersheds around the world. Most river systems are affected by reservoirs, dams, or other engineering structures, and decisions regarding their construction and operation are made in advance of knowing what water demands will be. Numerical models are used to predict future water needs and evaluate the effectiveness of water management strategies. It is important to consider a variety of management methods and future environmental conditions to ensure future demands can be met. In this work, a coupled surface water operations and hydrologic model of the Lower Republican River Basin in portions of Nebraska and Kansas, USA is used to evaluate the ability of several water management strategies, including structural and operational, to meet future demands of a water-stressed agricultural basin under a variety of future climate scenarios. Simulations indicate recent administrative and operational changes to the distribution of water between Nebraska and Kansas have significantly decreased water shortages for irrigation districts in Kansas and will continue to do so. Simulations also indicate that structural alternative of reservoir expansion is most effective at minimizing shortages to demands under a repeat of historical climate conditions. However, an operational alternative of increasing water supplies for Kansas' exclusive use, such as those historically purchased under the Warren Act (US Code 43 Section 523–524), is most effective at minimizing shortages to demands under a hotter and drier climate, demonstrating how optimal water management strategies can vary significantly depending upon climate scenario.     

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

个性化心理干预对老年2型糖尿病伴高血压患者治疗的影响

为探讨个性化心理干预对老年2型糖尿病合并高血压患者治疗的影响,文章将2012年6月-2013年6月本科确诊的老年2型糖尿病伴高血压患者收治的200例,随机平均分为研究组和对照组,2组患者均由2名以上医生根据患者病情给予正规降糖、降压口服药物治疗。研究组在正规药物治疗基础上,再根据患者不同年龄、文化层次采取个性化的心理干预。2组疗程12周,采用焦虑自评量表(SAS)和抑郁自评量表(SDS)评估患者治疗前后的焦虑、抑郁程度,同时观测治疗前后2组患者的血压、血糖、糖化血红蛋白、低密度脂蛋白、腰臀比指标的变化情况。结果显示:2组在治疗前SAS和SDS评分无统计学差异;12周后研究组患者不仅SAS、SDS标准分与对照组比有显著差异(P0.05),研究组血压、血糖、糖化血红蛋白、低密度脂蛋白、腰臀比与对照组相比差异显著(P0.05)。说明应用适当的心理干预,对于老年性2型糖尿病伴高血压患者的生活质量并有效控制血压、血糖具有良好效果。     

THE EFFECTS OF LOTTO GAME CHANGES AND LARGE JACKPOTS ON INCOME ELASTICITIES AND SALES

Using daily lottery data from Washington State by zip code from January 2011 through mid‐March 2016, we estimate that Powerball income elasticities range from ?0.16 to 0.16 as the Powerball jackpot increases from its minimum to $1.5 billion, while Mega Millions income elasticities range from ?0.08 to 0.03 as the Mega Millions jackpot increases from its minimum to $640 million. Controlling for jackpot size, each of three major game changes during this time period has a significant effect on own‐game and cross‐game sales. Despite these significant game changes, however, these lotto games are a highly regressive source of revenue for Washington State. (JEL H22, H71, L83)