Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models

The paper estimates and examines the empirical plausibility of asset pricing models that attempt to explain features of financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron, low-frequency movements, and time-varying uncertainty in aggregate consumption growth are the key channels for understanding asset prices. In another, as typified by Campbell and Cochrane, habit formation, which generates time-varying risk aversion and consequently time variation in risk premia, is the key channel. These models are fitted to data using simulation estimators. Both models are found to fit the data equally well at conventional significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further, scrutiny using a rich array of diagnostics suggests that the LRR model is preferred.     

An Error Component Logit Analysis of Corporate Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risk in Australia

This paper introduces a four-state failure model to depict a wider range of distress scenarios that public companies typically face in the real world. We use a multinomial error component logit model to analyse firm failure, a major advance on the modelling techniques used in previous research. The error component logit model, being an extension of the more familiar mixed logit model, relaxes several questionable statistical assumptions associated with standard models. Using a sample of Australian firms we provide an interpretative illustration of the error component logit model and contrast its behavioural performance with the standard logit model widely used in previous research.     

Are Co-integrated Stock Prices Consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

This paper responds to the unsatisfactory argument that there is no correspondence between co-integration and the efficient market hypothesis. A law of one co-integrating vector of prices is proposed for the exchange rate and domestic and overseas stock prices. Markets must therefore be efficient in long-run equilibrium because no arbitrage opportunities exist. However, arbitrage activity via the disequilibrium error correction allows above-average (risk-adjusted) returns to be earned in the short run. The elimination of these arbitrage opportunities means that stock market inefficiency in the short run ensures stock market efficiency in the long run.     

Corruption, Bribery, and Wait Times in the Public Allocation of Goods in Developing Countries

What are the nexuses between corruption, bribery, and wait times in the public allocation of goods in developing countries? This question has received scant attention in the literature. Consequently, we use queuing theory to analyze models in which a good is allocated publicly, first in a non‐preemptive corruption regime and then in a preemptive corruption regime. Specifically, for both regimes, we calculate wait times for citizens who pay bribes and for those who do not. Second, we use these wait times to show that bribery is profitable for citizens with a high opportunity cost of time. Third, we show that high and low opportunity cost of time citizens will have dissimilar preferences as far as the corruption regime is concerned. Finally, we conclude with some across‐citizens and across‐corruption regimes observations about the value of preemption, the benefit from bribery, and a measure of resource misallocation in the economy.     

Megatrends as perceived in Turkey in comparison to Austria and Germany

Countries and companies use foresight studies to manage uncertainty. Environmental scanning and trend analyses are important tools for identifying and monitoring change. Trend analysis requires more than simply extrapolating to the future. The content of communication serves as the basis of inference so those trends could be explored.This research uses an interdisciplinary approach combining media content analysis and factor analysis to discover many ways Turkey and the world may restructure and what the new society may look like as perceived by the individuals who participated in the survey. It determines six types of individuals in Turkey with different personal attitudes towards megatrends. Similarities and dissimilarities with previous studies in Austria and Germany are identified and discussed.     

Regional and Sector-specific Determinants of Industry Dynamics and the Displacement–replacement Effects

In this paper, we empirically assess the importance of regional and sector-specific determinants of industry dynamics. To this aim we test three hypotheses (originally proposed by Shapiro and Khemani (1987, Int J Indust Organ 5:15–26)) for the relationship between the entry and exit of firms: independence, symmetry and simultaneity. Estimates from a panel data system of equations seem to confirm the simultaneity hypothesis for Spain, i.e. we find evidence of a displacement (replacement) effect between the gross rate of entry (exit) and the gross rate of exit (entry). Also, our results show that, irrespective of the hypothesis we use, both sectorial and regional variables affect entry and exit.

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

The influence of redemption time frame on responses to incentives

In the present research, Construal Level Theory is used to predict that consumers will mentally characterize incentive offers differently as a function of their redemption time frames. Data from two experiments indicate that concrete features, such as the face value of an offer or its mode of presentation (as a dollar figure or as a percentage discount), are prominent for incentives with short time frames but not for incentives with long ones. In the latter case, abstract features, such as the incentive’s goal congruity or fit with personal values, are more likely to influence responses.     

ASIA'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

The global economic and financial landscape has been transformed over the past decade by the growing economic size and financial power of emerging economies. The new Group of Twenty summit process, which includes the largest emerging economies, has established high‐level international policy cooperation in this new setting. This article argues that effective global economic governance will also require changes in key global organizations—such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and the Financial Stability Board—and closer collaboration between global and regional organizations. We suggest that federalism be introduced on a global scale by creating hierarchies of global and regional organizations with overlapping ownership structures in various functional areas (as is already the case with the World Bank and regional development banks in the area of development finance). Asia could contribute to this transformation by building effective institutions to promote macroeconomic and financial stability and deepen regional trade and investment integration. Similar logic could be applied to a broader issue of providing international public goods, such as environmental and climate protection, communicable disease control, and disaster risk management. (JEL F02, F13, F33, F55, O59)