A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.     

Solving optimal timing problems in environmental economics

Two papers of Pindyck, 2000, Pindyck, 2002 that modeled the control of stock pollutants as optimal stopping problems contained closed form solutions that are incorrect. This paper discusses a subtle error in the derivation and demonstrates how solutions to these and related problems can be obtained numerically. The numerical solutions are contrasted with the ones contained in Pindyck's original papers.     

Scientific and technological interactions between Russia and Ukraine: Forecasting opportunities and mechanisms for their implementation

The paper presents the research results of an investigation into the state of scientific, technological, trade and economic interactions between Russia and Ukraine in terms of their potential, prospects, and problems impeding their cooperation. It is shown that there is a considerable scientific and technological potential both in Russia and Ukraine. Opportunities and conditions for the modernization of both countries’ economies are shown to depend on the coordinated use of their potentials.     

Increasing the Informational Content of Reach and Frequency Estimates

This article discusses the limitations of present methods of analyzing the coverage of advertising schedules and presents a technique for obtaining additional information from traditional measures of schedule coverage. This technique models entire patters of audience exposure to commercials by means of a compound Bernoulli distribution that can be estimated from reach and frequency data. Knowledge of the complete pattern of audience exposure to advertising schedules assists the media analyst in selecting optimally effective advertising schedules and consequently enhances the probability of conducting a successful advertising campaign.     

Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis

The author explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Although oil-price shocks are the most commonly cited examples of aggregate supply shocks, they violate the model's assumption of constant relative prices (as acknowledged by the label, “oil-price shocks”). The resulting problems are effectively masked in textbook presentations by implicitly assuming that the supply shocks occur in a closed economy. However, the typical discussion is glaringly inaccurate when discussing the effects of oil-price shocks on oil-rich countries. Thus, the cogency of the standard model's representation of oil-price shocks on open economies is compromised. A simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption goods enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies.     

The Relationship Between Economic Understanding and the Social Studies Curriculum

Much research is needed to determine the extent to which the high school social studies curriculum, and certain courses within that curriculum, contribute toward economic understanding. Boddy and Tocco report on their attempt to assess the social studies curriculum in Southwest Florida. They also single out one required course, Americanism vs. Communism, which was designed to “emphasize the free-enterprise-competitive economy of the United States,” and measure its impact on a sample of high school seniors. The findings are not encouraging. Although this study applies to one limited geographic area, others may find it interesting because it suggests the need for similar research in other parts of the nation.     

Graduate overeducation as a sheepskin effect: evidence from Northern Ireland

This article examines the nature of graduate overeducation amongst a group of applicants to a graduate conversion programme. It was found that while a substantial proportion of earnings differentials were associated with a mismatch between individual skill levels and job requirements, wage gaps were still likely to occur should such mismatches be eliminated. The evidence suggests that graduate wage levels are heavily related to sheepskin effects associated with the attainment of jobs with graduate level entry requirements. These sheepskin effects suggest that the process of job categorization is arbitrary in nature, with stated job requirements somewhat independent of actual skill requirements. The analysis suggests that graduate overeduction is better understood within the context of both skill and categorization mismatches as opposed to skill matches alone.