Further developments in estimation of the largest mean ofK normal populations

We revisit the bounded maximal risk point estimation problem as well as the fixed-width confidence interval estimation problem for the largest mean amongk(≥2) independent normal populations having unknown means and unknown but equal variance. In the point estimation setup, we devise appropriate two-stage and modified two-stage methodologies so that the associatedmaximal risk can bebounded from aboveexactly by a preassigned positive number. Kuo and Mukhopadhyay (1990), however, emphasized only the asymptotics in this context. We have also introduced, in both point and interval estimation problems,accelerated sequential methodologies thereby saving sampling operations tremendously over the purely sequential schemes considered in Kuo and Mukhopadhyay (1990), but enjoying at the same time asymptotic second-order characteristics, fairly similar to those of the purely sequential ones.     

An Improved I a S Relation Incorporating Antecedent Moisture in SCS-CN Methodology

Employing a large dataset of 84 small watersheds (area = 0.17 to 71.99 ha) of U.S.A., this paper investigates a number of initial abstraction (I _a )-potential maximum retention (S) relations incorporating antecedent moisture (M) as a function of antecedent precipitation (P ₅), and finally suggests an improved relation for use in the popular Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) methodology for determination of direct runoff from given rainfall. The improved performance of the incorporated M = α and I _a = λ S ²/(S + M) relations, where λ is the initial abstraction coefficient, in the SCS-CN methodology exhibits the dependence of I _a on M, which is close to reality; the larger the M, the lesser will be I _a , and vice versa. Such incorporation obviates sudden jumps in the curve number variation with antecedent moisture condition, an unreasonable and undesirable feature of the existing SCS-CN model.     

The Timing and Stock Selection Abilities of Bank Funds: Evidence Based on Meta-Analysis

This study investigates the risk-adjusted investment performance of the equity portfolios of bank trust departments, over the 1975–1992 period, attributable to their micro stock selection and macro market timing abilities. This paper first employs a widely known parametric statistical procedure developed by Henriksson and Merton to test jointly for the presence of either superior stock selection or market timing abilities. The paper then utilizes an alternative technique, called meta-analysis, to further examine the regression results obtained under the Henriksson–Merton model. The meta-analysis essentially eliminates such study artifacts as sampling and measurement errors through cumulation of results across studies. The findings of the joint test, based on the Henriksson–Merton model, do not support either superior stock selection abilities or market timing skills on the part of bank equity fund managers: selectivity measures are positive and timing measures are generally negative, but both measures are statistically insignificant. In contrast, the evidence based on the meta-analysis suggest that the managers of bank equity investment funds possess superior stock selection abilities and somewhat negative timing skills. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that, even though bank trust departments, like other categories of institutional investors, are unable to outperform a passive buy and hold investment strategy through timing the equity market, they are able to improve their investment performance through superior stock selection abilities.     

Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

Modelling safety of gantry crane operations using Petri nets

Being a powerful tool in modelling industrial and service operations, Petri net (PN) has been extremely used in different domains, but its application in safety study is limited. In this study, we model the gantry crane operations used for industrial activities using generalized stochastic PNs. The complete cycle of operations of the gantry crane is split into three parts namely inspection and loading, movement of load, and unloading of load. PN models are developed for all three parts and the whole system as well. The developed PN models have captured the safety issues through reachability tree. The hazardous states are identified and how they ultimately lead to some unwanted accidents is demonstrated. The possibility of falling of load and failure of hook, sling, attachment and hoist rope are identified. Possible suggestions based on the study are presented for redesign of the system. For example, mechanical stoppage of operations in case of loosely connected load, and warning system for use of wrong buttons is tested using modified models.     

Tecnología,deslocalización y tareas definitorias de las ocupaciones en el Reino Unido

Los autores analizan los cambios de las tareas definitorias (margen intensivo) y de los niveles de empleo (margen extensivo) de las ocupaciones en el Reino Unido de 1997 a 2006 con datos de la Encuesta nacional sobre calificaciones (Skills Survey). Encuentran que las tareas definitorias de las ocupaciones cambiaron significativamente, y que la magnitud del cambio fue similar a la encontrada en el margen extensivo. Según sus resultados econométricos, este cambio de las tareas definitorias puede explicarse por los avances tecnológicos, pero no por la deslocalización.     

Epidemiology of inflation expectations and internet search: an analysis for India

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - This paper investigates how inflation expectations of individuals are formed in India. We investigate if the news on inflation plays a role in the...