The local economic impact of construction projects in a small and relatively self-contained economy: The case of Lancaster University

Whilst the local multiplier impacts of the annual operation of universities has been the subject of intensive research, the economic impacts of capital construction projects have been almost completely ignored. This paper presents the results of detailed analysis of capital projects at Lancaster University in 1993-The reasons for the radically different annual operation and construction multipliers estimated in the Lancaster study are examined. Despite the smaller size of construction multipliers it is argued that it is a serious mistake to estimate local construction multipliers by making simplifying assumptions on the size of the key parameters in the multiplier equations.     

Two-Part Trade Policy under Imperfect Competition

In this paper we consider the potential gain of a government pursuing a two-part trade policy: an import license for entry, along with a per-unit tariff on imports. The model is a two-stage game of complete but imperfect information. In the first stage, the domestic government sets trade policy, while in the second stage the home and foreign producers behave as Cournot competitors. The paper demonstrates that the optimal trade policy depends upon the number of firms, the degree of heterogeneity in cost functions, and the degree of convexity in cost functions.     

Information technology developments and implications for national policies

A review is made of the global status of information technology (IT) development and new opportunities identified for government IT policies. Despite operational problems, IT innovations continue apace. Poor human-computer interaction, user friendliness and lack of standardization are all key issues which must be addressed. Globalization trends, east-west politicomilitary changes and third world development, all have implications for government IT policies over the coming decade—and the right directions must be pursued now to derive real benefits from IT and move towards a true information economy.     

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.     

Development of an empirical mathematical model for describing and optimizing the hygiene potential of a thermophilic anaerobic bioreactor treating faeces.

Poor sanitation and insufficient disposal of sewage and faeces are primarily responsible for water associated health problems in developing countries. Domestic sewage and faeces are prevalently discharged into surface waters which are used by the inhabitants as a source for drinking water. This paper presents a decentralized anaerobic process technique for handling of such domestic organic waste. Such an efficient and compact system for treating faeces and food waste may be of great benefit for developing countries. Besides a stable biogas production for energy generation, the reduction of bacterial pathogens is of particular importance. In our research we investigated the removal capacity of the reactor concerning pathogens, which has been operated under thermophilic conditions. Faecal coliforms and intestinal enterococci have been detected as indicator organisms for bacterial pathogens. By the multiple regression analysis technique an empirical mathematical model has been developed. The model shows a high correlation between removal efficiency and both, hydraulic retention time (HRT) and temperature. By this model an optimized HRT for defined bacterial pathogens effluent standards can be easily calculated. Thus, hygiene potential can be evaluated along with economic aspects. In this paper not only results for describing the hygiene potential of a thermophilic anaerobic bioreactor are presented, but also an exemplary method to draw the right conclusions out of biological tests with the aid of mathematical tools.     

Implementation of sustainable sanitation in existing urban areas: long-term strategies for an optimised solution.

If technologies for decentralised sanitation and reuse (DESAR) and for natural stormwater management should at least partially replace existing systems, then intensive reconstruction work becomes essential. A conversion can only be realised successively over a long period due to high construction and financial expenses and requires new strategies. This paper presents the development and practical implementation of a mathematical tool to find an optimised strategy for the realisation of alternative and more decentralised drainage and sanitation concepts in existing urban areas. The succession of construction measures (e.g. the implementation of decentralised greywater recycling) for the whole period of consideration is determined based upon a mathematical optimisation model on the condition that the favoured future state is known. The model describes the complex interdependencies of the urban water and nutrient cycle and enables the minimisation of both financial efforts and ecological impacts on the way toward the future state. The results of the implementation for a rural area in Germany show that the mathematical optimisation is an adequate instrument to support decision-making processes in finding strategies for the realisation of sustainable urban water management.     

Assessment of Capillary Rise from Shallow Groundwater by the Simulation Model SIMWASER Using Either Estimated Pedotransfer Functions or Measured Hydraulic Parameters

The performance of the water balance and crop growth model SIMWASER to estimate the water supply of a lawn by capillary rise from shallow ground water was investigated by using lysimeter measurements with a sandy and a clayey soil. Moreover the robustness of the model was evaluated by running it either with measured hydraulic soil parameters or with estimated pedotransfer functions (PTFs) derived from texture and bulk density. Simulations were performed for the years 1996–1998 with input data from the lysimeter station Berlin-Dahlem (Germany) for lysimeters containing undisturbed sandy or clayey soil monoliths, with groundwater at 135 cm depth. Simulated evapotranspiration and percolation/capillary rise were in good agreement with the measured data for all variants, while simulated soil water storage was acceptable only for the variants using hydraulic soil data based on laboratory measurements or using PTFs derived from known soil class and bulk density. PTFs based on mean total pore volume of the respective soil classes yielded soil water storages which were evidently too high; therefore they should be used with care and must be avoided at all in simulating the soil water balance of arid sites with shallow groundwater.     

Estrogenic personal care products in a greywater reuse system.

The occurrence and fate of parabens in a greywater system was assessed. The potential for removal of residual paraben concentrations in effluent greywater with chlorine dioxide was also investigated. The influent to the greywater plant was characterised by considerable variation, with concentrations from below the detection limit to 40 microg/L and the five commonly used parabens in consumer products were frequently detected. After the biological treatment only two paraben were detected with concentration from 65-120 ng/L. Chlorine dioxide treatment of the biologically treated effluent with dosages down to 0.75 mg/L resulted in more than 97% reduction of all parabens. Formation of the by-product chloroform was insignificant from the chlorine dioxide treatment.