The Effects of Uncertainty on Market Prices: Evidence from Coaching Changes in the NBA

Abstract:  This study examines the effects of uncertainty on market prices. Specifically, we use the National Basketball Association betting market to examine whether uncertainty resulting from midseason coaching changes affects the ability of bettors to accurately set betting lines. We find that uncertainty amid midseason coaching changes results in less accurate pricing, as evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines. We also find that uncertainty regarding the ability of the replacement coach and/or his strategies results in less accurate pricing, again evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines.     

IMPACT OF DIVIDEND‐PROTECTED EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS ON PAYOUT POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

Abstract. This study used a sample of 1035 Taiwanese firms to examine the impact of dividend protected employee stock options on stock repurchase and cash dividend policies from 2000 to 2005. This study finds a positive relationship between cash dividends and executive options, implying that executives holding stock options might prefer to distribute cash dividends to boost the stock price. This result, unlike in earlier studies, arises from the dividend protected characteristic of Taiwanese employee stock options. Finally, free cash flow, firm profitability, level of debt, investment opportunities and firm size are found to considerably influence payout decisions.     

Optimal employment contracts and the returns to monitoring in a principal-agent context

Abstract. In this paper we study a two-person firm consisting of a principal and an agent. The principal hires the agent to provide some input into the production process. The output of the production process is determined by the agent's input and an exogenous state realization. Subsequent to joining the firm, but prior to choosing his input, the agent privately observes the state realization. The principal employs an imperfect monitoring system that publicly reports on the state realization. Our purpose in studying this model is to better understand the effects of monitoring on the design of the optimal employment contract and the determinants of the value of monitoring in a model with asymmetric information. Résumé. Les auteurs étudient une entreprise constituée de deux personnes, un mandant et un mandataire. Le mandant embauche le mandataire pour sa contribution au processus de fabrication. Le résultat du processus de fabrication est déterminé par la contribution du mandataire et par la réalisation d'un état exogène. Après s'être joint à l'entreprise, mais avant de déterminer quelle sera sa contribution, le mandataire observe, en privé, la réalisation de cet état exogène. Le mandant a recours à un système de suivi imparfait qui fait le point, à l'intention du public, sur la réalisation de l'état en question. L'étude de ce modèle permet une meilleure compréhension des conséquences du suivi sur la nature de contrat d'emploi optimal et des déterminants de la valeur du suivi dans un modèle caractérisé par une information asymétrique.