台湾农业金库的运作模式及其对内地农信社改革的启示

本文首先分析了台湾农业金库的发展历程、股权结构及其职责作用,然后从法律制度、政府角色、业务开展等方面概括了台湾农业金库运行模式的特点,并参照台湾农业金库的模式,提出内地农村信用社改革发展的建议,包括建立相应法律体系、强化省政府在农信社改革进程中的作用、强化农信社省级联社的行业管理和服务职责等。     

Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

保险公司诉讼与诉讼预期相关性研究

近年来我国保险诉讼案件增势不减,有的历经一审、二审,有的还要再审。从媒体披露的结果看,保险公司无论作为原告还是被告,似乎都是胜少败多。本文通过对北京某人寿保险股份有限公司2005年～2008年诉讼、诉讼预期数据的实证调研,探讨保险公司诉讼预期是否实现及实现程度,在此基础上提出更理性、更具可操作性的建议。     

团队氛围、董事会内部沟通与战略绩效

本文在理论分析的基础上提出研究假设,通过问卷调查的方式搜集数据,以47家企业董事会454份有效问卷为样本进行实证研究,结果表明,团队氛围中的团队信任对董事会内部沟通具有显著的正向影响;团队氛围中的情感冲突对董事会内部沟通具有显著的负向影响;董事会内部沟通对企业战略绩效中的团队学习力、决策有效性和战略一致性均具有显著的正向影响。研究不仅丰富了董事会团队过程理论,而且能够有效地指导公司治理实践。     

目标管理运用的障碍

1954年彼得·德鲁克(PeterF.Drucker)在其名著《管理实践》中提出了目标管理,德鲁克认为:并不是有了工作才有目标,恰恰相反,应该是有了目标才能确定每个人的工作。所以“企业的使命和任务,必须转化为目标”。自此以后,目标管理的思想被美国企业所广泛应用,并很快为日本、西欧国家的企业所仿效。今天,目标管理已经成为企业管理中最基本的方法之一,该方法也被公认为是德鲁克对管理实践的主要贡献之一。美国总统布什在将2002年度的“总统自由勋章”授予彼得·德鲁克时,提到他的三大贡献之一就是目标管理。但是在今天企业界对目标管理的运用过…     

Entrepreneurship research in China: internationalization or contextualization?

Entrepreneurship is an emerging research field that has received much scholarly attention in recent decades. Given the global scope of this attention, this article compares entrepreneurship research in China with that in the USA and Europe. Based on publications in Social Science Citation Index and Chinese Social Science Citation Index databases over the past 10 years, we use bibliometric method to analyse entrepreneurship research in different regions. Our analysis shows that, on the one hand, entrepreneurship research in China has much in common with such research in the USA and Europe. In addition to borrowing ideas from Western researchers, Chinese entrepreneurship researchers study similar themes and use similar theoretical foundations. On the other hand, Chinese contextual environment helps preserve the uniqueness of its entrepreneurship research. Researchers deal with several context-specific topics such as guanxi, i.e. networks of interpersonal relationships, and its influence on entrepreneurship. We further discuss ways for Chinese researchers to explore the distinct context and contribute to the global literature.     

浅议地勘单位实施企业化改革过程中的职工队伍建设

地勘单位实施企业化改革,必须加强职工队伍建设。要针对存在的问题,深化三项制度改革;加强人才培养和引进,提高职工综合素质;加强市场观念意识的培育;实施企业文化建设工程。     

对高职院校学生干部队伍建设的几点思考——从"狼性文化"透视学生干部培训

学生干部在高职院校学生的教育、管理工作中扮演着重要的角色.如何发挥这支队伍的作用,对提高大学生的思想政治素质具有重要意义.文章通过分析学生干部队伍存在的问题,提出在学生干部培训中引入"狼性文化",以培齐和造就一支高素质的学生干部队伍.     

Nonparametric dynamic panel data models: Kernel estimation and specification testing

Motivated by the first-differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogenous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model—the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also propose a consistent test for the correct specification of linearity in typical dynamic panel data models based on the _L2$L_2$ distance of our nonparametric estimates and the parametric estimates under the linear restriction. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives, and prove its consistency against global alternatives. Simulations suggest that the proposed estimators and tests perform well for finite samples. We apply our new method to study the relationships among economic growth, the initial economic condition and capital accumulation, and find a significant nonlinear relation between economic growth and the initial economic condition.     

甘肃省区域经济与区域物流发展关系实证研究

考虑到构成区域经济与区域物流指标体系的复杂性,文章利用主成分分析法提取了代表二者的关键性指标,并以甘肃省区域经济和区域物流发展的历史数据为例进行了实证分析。结果表明甘肃省区域经济对区域物流的发展具有明显的带动作用。