Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

Optimal Locations of Groundwater Extractions in Coastal Aquifers

A regional water supply management model for coastal aquifers was developed. One of its outcomes is the definition of the optimized locations for groundwater withdrawal. Such a tool permits the analysis of alternative plans for groundwater extraction and the sustainable use of water resources in a coastal aquifer subject to saltwater intrusion. The principal components are the evolutionary optimization and the analytical/numerical simulation models. The optimization technique looks for the best well locations taking into consideration the economic results and the satisfaction of the societal water demand. However these two concerns are conditioned by trying to control the saltwater intrusion, i.e., preserving the environmental equilibrium. The simulation model uses the governing mathematical equations for groundwater movement to find the interface between freshwater and saltwater. Because of the non-linearity in the system and the possibility of a jumping interface, a security distance was defined. This is a controlling variable which can be set by the decision makers. The model was applied to a typical case with interesting results. For example, diagrams showing the relationship between the location of the wells and the security distance(s) are of importance to the managers. It was also crucial to have an understanding of the tradeoffs between groundwater withdrawals, positions of the wells from the coast line, and the security distance. The model was also applied to a real case in order to relate the extractions, distances and artificial recharge (not presented in this paper).