Outsiders' threat and consecutive offers

Summary. We study the effects of outsiders' threat and consecutive offers in the two-person bargaining model of Shaked and Sutton (1984). In our first model, there are no outsiders and the firm can make two consecutive offers for every given number of periods. Our first model has the same unique equilibrium as in Shaked and Sutton (1984). In our second model, the firm can switch between rival partners but cannot change the alternating proposing sequence. Our second model has the same perfect equilibrium as in Rubinstein (1982). So the key factor that leads to the equilibrium of Shaked and Sutton (1984) is the possibility of firm's consecutive offers, not the outsiders' threat. Received: 23 December 1998; revised version: 21 May 1999     

Has the EMS reduced member-country exchange rate volatility?

Using tests for unit roots, serial correlation, and conditional heteroskedasticity, we find that the stochastic structure of the percentage changes in both the Franc/DM and Lira/DM rates is well described by a low order autoregression with ARCH disturbances. While this assertion is not rejected in either the Pre-EMS or the EMS period, we present evidence indicating a structural shift between sub-periods. In particular, while ARCH is present in each sub-period, its explicit parameterization changes dramatically.Likelihood-ratio tests indicate the desirability of a bivariate analysis, and significant ARCH effects are found in the conditional variances and covariances over both subperiods. Likelihood ratio tests also indicate substantial structural change between the subperiods. The conditional variances of exchange rate innovations are used as natural measures of exchange rate volatility; it is found that volatility decreases substantially for both rates in the EMS period. Furthermore, the Franc shows a relatively greater volatility decrease with the move to the EMS, a result consistent with the narrower parity bands established for the Franc. Finally, the covariation of shocks to the two intra-EMS rates is shown to decrease between the Pre-EMS and EMS periods.     

杉木——籽西瓜套种模式的生物生产力及收益的研究

8年(1985～1992年)的试验和大面积(1356ha)应用结果表明,在杉木连栽林地套种籽西瓜对杉木幼林生长有显著的促进作用,套种林地的生物生产力和材积生产力分别比不套种林地提高95.75％～213.94％和128.03％～339.09％。模式的短期收益十分显著,平均每公顷纯收入达2627元,达到了长短结合,以短养长,以短促长的经营目的。具有广阔的推广应用前景。     

顺应理论下的翻译策略与方法——以《红楼梦》杨宪益英译本为例

Verschueren的顺应理论为从语用学的角度研究翻译提供了新的理论框架。翻译策略和方法的选择应该分别实现对宏观交际语境和微观语言语境的动态顺应。归化和异化是实现动态顺应的翻译策略,直译和意译则是翻译方法。《红楼梦》的杨宪益译本为顺应论视角下翻译策略和方法的成功选择提供了例证。     

油气田科研院所如何开展质量管理小组活动

根据油气田科研院所产品的特点。从活动范围、活动程序、各自的特点、目的、关注点等方面论述了科研项目研究活动与QC小组活动的异同。并结合实例对科研院所如何开展QC小组活动进行了阐述。     

Location advantages and subsidiaries’ R&;D activities in emerging economies: Exploring the effect of employee mobility

With multinational corporations increasingly seeking subsidiaries’ specific advantages in foreign countries to develop their innovative capabilities, internationalization of research and development has been greatly emphasized. However, in emerging economies, managers are encountering the challenge of high employee mobility under the weak intellectual property protection regime. This article investigates subsidiaries’ employee mobility and proposes that it negatively moderates the relationship between location advantages and the level of subsidiaries’ R&D. This article extends R&D internationalization and enhances current understanding of subsidiaries’ R&D activities. Further, it provides managerial implications as to how managers can improve R&D outcome by mitigating obstacles in emerging economies.

基于博弈论的代建制研究

政府投资项目采用代建制的模式,实现了项目的专业化管理,有利于提高项目的投资效益。针对代建制实施的特点,运用博弈论的相关知识,依次建立了2 个模型 —— 激励相容约束模型和效率工资模型,并通过数学推理得到若干有益结论。     

Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns

There is substantial evidence of short‐term stock price continuation, which the prior literature often attributes to investor behavioral biases such as underreaction to new information. This paper investigates the role of information uncertainty in price continuation anomalies and cross‐sectional variations in stock returns. If short‐term price continuation is due to investor behavioral biases, we should observe greater price drift when there is greater information uncertainty. As a result, greater information uncertainty should produce relatively higher expected returns following good news and relatively lower expected returns following bad news. My evidence supports this hypothesis.     

数字普惠金融发展对居民消费结构升级的影响研究

随着数字产业化的推进,数字普惠金融发展正成为推动现代消费的重要元素之一.本文基于我国2011—2018年居民消费支出和北京大学数字金融研究中心发布的数字普惠金融指数数据,采用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型研究数字普惠金融发展对居民消费结构升级的影响及作用机制.研究发现:数字普惠金融的发展所带来的普惠效应有利于促进居民提高发展与享受型消费占比,实现消费结构升级;不同维度的数字普惠金融发展水平对居民消费结构升级的影响存在差异,数字普惠金融的覆盖广度和使用深度都能促进消费结构升级,但使用深度的促进作用更显著;数字普惠金融发展通过影响金融可及性促进农村居民消费升级的中介效应占比41.7％,而对于城镇居民来说直接效应比间接效应显著.     

新股发行、价格确定与信息效率

本文从新股发行价格对各类信息的反应效率这一角度来研究核准制下新股发行定价效率问题。针对影响新股发行定价的信息因素具有多层次、多维度的特点,本文建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映新股发行价格影响因素的理论框架,并采用协方差结构模型分析方法进行实证研究。结果显示:在核准制下新股价格基本上反映了内在价值因素和市场环境因素,具有一定的信息效率;而对发行因素反映的较少,缺乏这方面的信息效率。总体而言,我国新股发行定价的信息效率仍较为有限。