Bivariate and multivariate scaled association models. An application to homogamy of social origin and education in Hungary between 1930 and 1979

In this article we compare bivariate and multivariate models for homogamy of social origin and education to test whether bivariate models of homogamy lead to biased results. We use data on Hungarian couples married between 1930 and 1979 and loglinear models of scaled association. The results indicate some differences between bivariate and multivariate analyses. At each point of time bivariate models overestimate homogamy, both with respect to education and social origin. However, results on trends in time do not differ much between the two analyses. The exception is the period 1940–1959, in which bivariate analysis showed decreasing educational homogamy, and multivariate analysis showed an increasing trend. The latter finding can be explained by declining homogamy of social origin, as well as the weaker reproduction and cross-effects in this period.     

Choice of utility function form: its effect on classification of risk preferences and the prediction of farmer decisions

In applications of expected utility analysis, researchers are confronted with a choice among several utility functional forms. Subjective utility values and probability distributions for price and yield were elicited from Sri Lankan producers of minor export crops. Exponential quadratic and cubic utility functions were estimated. The choice of functional form was found to affect both the classification of risk attitudes and the prediction of harvesting strategy. The exponential function was the best predictor of harvesting strategy because it was the best predictor of mature harvesting. All three functions were equally poor predictors of premature harvesting.     

Pricing Options on an Asset with Bernoulli Jump-Diffusion Returns

The price movements of certain assets can be modeled by stochastic processes that combine continuous diffusion with discrete jumps. This paper compares values of options on assets with no jumps, jumps of fixed size, and jumps drawn from a lognormal distribution. It is shown that not only the magnitude but also the direction of the mispricing of the Black-Scholes model relative to jump models can vary with the distribution family of the jump component. This paper also discusses a methodology for the numerical valuation, via a backward induction algorithm, of American options on a jump-diffusion asset whose early exercise may be profitable. These cannot, in general, be accurately priced using analytic models. The procedure has the further advantage of being easily adaptable to nonanalytic, empirical distributions of period returns and to nonstationarity in the underlying diffusion process.     

Restoration challenges for urban rivers.

Urban sources account for significant quantities of important diffuse pollutants, and urban watercourses are typically badly polluted. As well as toxic metals, hydrocarbons including PAHs, and suspended matter, priority urban pollutants include faecal pathogens and nutrients. Can urban watercourses be restored by sufficient reductions in pollution loads? Case studies in the UK and Sweden provide insights and some grounds for optimism. A major trans-Atlantic review of the performance of best management practices (BMPs) is informing BMP planning. New approaches such as the maximisation of self-purification capacity in the receiving waters may also need to be developed, alongside BMPs at source. Other initiatives in Europe, USA and China, including collaborative projects, are trying to address the intractable issues such as persistent pollutants from transport and urban infrastructure. The challenge is daunting, but there are clear ways forward and future research needs are evident.     

Egg Thiamine Status of Lake Ontario Salmonines 1995–2004 with Emphasis on Lake Trout

Alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus), the major prey fish for Lake Ontario, contain thiaminase. They are associated with development of a thiamine deficiency in salmonines which greatly increases the potential for developing an early mortality syndrome (EMS). To assess the possible effects of thiamine deficiency on salmonine reproduction we measured egg thiamine concentrations for five species of Lake Ontario salmonines. From this we estimated the proportion of families susceptible to EMS based on whether they were below the ED20, the egg thiamine concentration associated with 20% mortality due to EMS. The ED20s were 1.52, 2.63, and 2.99 nmol/g egg for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), respectively. Based on the proportion of fish having egg thiamine concentrations falling below the ED20, the risk of developing EMS in Lake Ontario was highest for lake trout, followed by coho (O. kisutch), and Chinook salmon, with the least risk for rainbow trout (O. mykiss). For lake trout from western Lake Ontario, mean egg thiamine concentration showed significant annual variability during 1994 to 2003, when the proportion of lake trout at risk of developing EMS based on ED20 ranged between 77 and 100%. Variation in the annual mean egg thiamine concentration for western Lake Ontario lake trout was positively related (p < 0.001, r² = 0.94) with indices of annual adult alewife biomass. While suggesting the possible involvement of density-dependent changes in alewives, the changes are small relative to egg thiamine concentrations when alewife are not part of the diet and are of insufficient magnitude to allow for natural reproduction by lake trout.     

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.