INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

Communication and Comovement: Evidence from Online Stock Forums

We study investor communication and stock comovement using a novel data set from an active online stock forum in China. We find substantial comovement among the returns of a stock and its “related stocks,” which are frequently discussed in the subforum dedicated to the given stock. Comovement is greater when the discussion of related stocks is more intensive. Further, the effect of communication on comovement is stronger for stocks associated with higher information uncertainty. Codiscussed stocks are more actively traded and experience more correlated trading. A trading strategy that exploits communication‐driven comovement generates abnormal returns. Our findings highlight the impact of investor communication on asset comovement.     

Unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing

Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

Dewatered alum sludge: a potential adsorbent for phosphorus removal.

Alum sludge refers to the by-product from the processing of drinking water in water treatment works. In this study, groups of batch experiments were designed to identify the characteristics of dewatered alum sludge for phosphorus adsorption. Air-dried alum sludge (moisture content 10.2%), which was collected from a water treatment works in Dublin, was subjected to artificial P-rich wastewater adsorption tests using KH2PO4 as a model P source. Adsorption behaviours were investigated as a function of amount and particle size of alum sludge, pH of solution and adsorption time. The results have shown that pH plays a major role not only in the adsorption process but also in the adsorption capacity. With regard to adsorption capacity, this study reveals the Langmuir adsorption isotherm being the best fit with experimental data (R2 = 0.98-0.99). The maximum adsorption capacities range from 0.7 to 3.5 mg-P/g when the pH of the synthetic P solution was varied from 9.0 to 4.3, accordingly. The outcome of this study indicated that alum sludge is suitable for use as an adsorbent for removal of phosphate from wastewater.     

基于投影寻踪的径向基函数网络在参考腾发量预测中的应用

径向基函数网络(RBFN)已广泛应用于参考腾发量预测等领域，但常用的K均值聚类和自组织特征映射等方法在求取径向基函数网络隐层节点中心时存在较大不足。针对这一问题，本文引入投影寻踪方法，在投影降维的基础上实现对大量高维数据的聚类，建立了基于投影寻踪的径向基函数网络模型，并将该模型应用于山西潇河灌区参考腾发量的预测，研究了不同气象因子输入对参考腾发量预测精度的影响。结果表明，基于投影寻踪的径向基函数网络具有较强的适用性，只需使用最高温度、最低温度、日照时数和旬序数作为输入因子，就能以较高的精度预测参考腾发量。     

以IBAC为核心处理洗浴废水的试验研究

根据洗浴废水的水质特征,采用原水→混凝沉淀-过滤→固定化生物活性炭(Immobilized Biological Activated Carbon,IBAC)→微滤膜(MF)→UV消毒→出水的工艺流程.混凝沉淀-过滤物化预处理单元可以有效地减少洗浴废水中的各类污染物.IBAC生化处理单元,实现有机污染物、LAS、浴臭等有效去除,是保证出水合格的根本措施.微滤膜发挥物理截留作用、UV消毒杀死细菌和总大肠菌群.出水水质达到＜城市供水水质标准＞(CJ/T 206-2005).     

搞好新时期农建关键在于创新机制

围绕建设社会主义新农村这一主题,就农建工作如何适应新形势和新任务的要求,扎实推进现代农业和社会主义新农村建设,提出了必须坚持改革与创新的观点。     

水工混凝土修补技术应用

针对水工混凝土的老化病害,介绍了不同类型修补材料的特点、性能、适用范围,以及修补技术应用中的一些实例和经验。     

国家助学贷款中信息不对称问题及其矫正

国家助学贷款工作的实施,为帮助贫困大学生顺利完成学业发挥着重要作用。但是由于助学贷款中的信息不对称所引起的逆向选择和道德风险问题使该项工作陷入了贷还两难的窘境。因此,必须通过建立完善的信用制度,健全法律法规,设计合理的还贷激励机制,构建风险分担体系,加大高校的工作投入,使助学贷款工作能够顺利实施,发挥更大的作用。