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above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review
of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic.
Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002
Published online: April 30, 2003
We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra
for their help in writing this paper. 相似文献
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Explaining Japan’s recession 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Benjamin Powell 《Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics》2002,5(2):35-50
86.
Marcela Brugnach Andrew Tagg Florian Keil Wim J. de Lange 《Water Resources Management》2007,21(7):1075-1090
The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and
difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However,
despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from
being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers
have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this
apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence
in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve
the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying
out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into
policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities. 相似文献
87.
Optimal Locations of Groundwater Extractions in Coastal Aquifers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A regional water supply management model for coastal aquifers was developed. One of its outcomes is the definition of the
optimized locations for groundwater withdrawal. Such a tool permits the analysis of alternative plans for groundwater extraction
and the sustainable use of water resources in a coastal aquifer subject to saltwater intrusion. The principal components are
the evolutionary optimization and the analytical/numerical simulation models. The optimization technique looks for the best
well locations taking into consideration the economic results and the satisfaction of the societal water demand. However these
two concerns are conditioned by trying to control the saltwater intrusion, i.e., preserving the environmental equilibrium.
The simulation model uses the governing mathematical equations for groundwater movement to find the interface between freshwater
and saltwater. Because of the non-linearity in the system and the possibility of a jumping interface, a security distance
was defined. This is a controlling variable which can be set by the decision makers. The model was applied to a typical case
with interesting results. For example, diagrams showing the relationship between the location of the wells and the security
distance(s) are of importance to the managers. It was also crucial to have an understanding of the tradeoffs between groundwater
withdrawals, positions of the wells from the coast line, and the security distance. The model was also applied to a real case
in order to relate the extractions, distances and artificial recharge (not presented in this paper). 相似文献
88.
Andrew Orange 《Journal of Financial Services Marketing》2004,8(3):270-278
Interactive television has arrived, thanks to substantial technology investments that have been made by Sky and others. It is growing in importance as innovative interactive applications are developed for broadcast programmes (eg the BBCi service and Big Brother), and for advertising — and will develop further when broadband deployment gets to critical mass. Readers should not expect a television-variant of the world wide web, however. This was tried during 2000–2002 in the form of web look-alike, interactive ‘walled garden’ sites, and failed to attract critical mass footfall. The model has evolved and now revolves around interactive content synchronised with broadcast, which offers financial services companies an interesting new way to increase awareness and to differentiate the service presentation. Furthermore, over the next ten years, broadband is expected to usher in a new era of personalised television — in which specialised broadcasts (such as personal pensions advice programmes) can be made available on demand. The observations in this paper are mainly drawn from the UK, where digital television penetration is high; the lessons can be applied more broadly, however, and are relevant to any organisation thinking of promoting its service through entertainment channels. 相似文献
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