Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

First-Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Monte Carlo analysis were applied to characterize the uncertainty in selected water levels and velocities simulated by a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Upper St. Lawrence River downstream from Lake Ontario. The analysis utilized an application of the Resource Management Associates’ RMA2 model. Both FOSM and Monte Carlo analysis provided similar estimates of uncertainty, with Monte Carlo analysis results being 15% less than FOSM. Based on the findings of this work, the FOSM is preferred. FOSM provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty and it is simpler to apply than Monte Carlo analysis, requiring less information and fewer model executions. FOSM also provides an immediate indication of the primary contributors to the uncertainty in the output, where Monte Carlo analysis requires additional effort to do the same. Results indicate that the parameter describing bottom resistance using Manning's n contributed more to model uncertainty than other factors investigated. The uncertainty in and sensitivity in Manning's n is large which results in a significant amount of uncertainty in the model outputs is contributed by this parameter. The calculations described in this study show that uncertainty analysis is a practical addition to the two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling process. It provides insight to the model developer, quantifying how good the model actually is. It also provides a measure of the accuracy of the model for future model developers or clients using hydrodynamic modeling outputs     

奥林匹克森林公园人工湖营养盐与藻类生长规律研究

城市再生水回用于景观水体的主要问题是水体富营养化导致水华的暴发。奥林匹克森林公园水面是世界上迄今为止规模最大的以再生水为主要水源的人工水景,在现有处理水平下,再生水带来的营养盐会促进藻类的生长(特别是磷的影响更加显著)。通过2008年的跟踪试验,研究结果表明再生水厂出水水质稳定达标,奥林匹克森林公园水系没有出现水华,水系水质达到设计功能。     

International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion

The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) balance sheet expanded more dramatically than any of its major international counterparts during the past decade. The main contribution to this expansion was the rapid accumulation of the central bank's foreign assets, as a result of foreign exchange market intervention. In this paper, we examine the possible international transmission of this expansion by analyzing monthly data for China and 15 other countries over the period 2000–2012. Impulse response analysis based on vector autoregression modeling suggests that the PBoC's balance sheet expansion has greater impacts on developing than on developed countries. So far the influences appear to be dominated by “trade channels” instead of “financial channels,” possibly due to China's capital account controls. However, the impacts of the PBoC's balance sheet expansion on other countries' interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market prices could strengthen significantly in the coming years as China's economic scale grows and its capital account opens up.     

对发展个人跨境人民币业务的思考

随着对外开放程度的提高和对外经济交往的日益紧密,将跨境人民币结算业务扩展到个人领域的呼声渐高。本文从个人跨境人民币业务的现实需求入手,分析了开展个人跨境人民币业务的可行性,并对发展个人跨境人民币业务的管理框架和模式安排进行了探讨,以期为推进个人跨境人民币业务发展及实施有效管理提供参考。     

Understanding the Decline of China's State Sector

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

美国制造业怎么啦?

2004年1月16日,美国商务部发布了一份题为《美国制造:一项帮助美国制造业者应对挑战的综合战略》报告。该报告分析了美国制造业目前面临的挑战,提出了具体的应对措施。本文根据报告的主要内容,分析了美国制造业的现状,介绍了美国政府将采取的主要对策。     

EVA与银行业的价值创造

中国的银行业,近年来由于体制、不良资产等各方面的原因,造成了效率低下,并且从有关的EVA统计数据看出,中国的银行业不仅没有在创造价值甚至在毁灭价值。面对着WTO五年保护期的即将届满,以及外资银行的纷纷踏入,中国的银行业应该怎样来创造自身价值呢?本文从经济增加值(EVA)的计算公式出发,从五个环节指出了中国银行业怎样进行价值创造,并通过举例的方式进行形象的说明。     

从工程冲刷破坏谈挡潮闸的消能设计和调度运行

挡潮闸的消能设计一直是该类工种设计的难点，从我省沿海的几个挡潮闸来看，工程冲刷破坏是一个普遍现象。由于外海潮水位的不确定性，使得挡潮闸的消能设计和调度运行成为整个工程设计合理、运行安全的关键。本文结合工程实例，从分析工程冲刷破坏的原因出发，对挡潮闸消能设计和调度运行提出了较为合理的方法。     

臭氧-活性炭-反硝化生物滤池在污水再生回用中的应用

在酒仙桥污水处理厂建立200m3/d的示范工程进行高品质再生水的生产,在二级出水强化脱氮除磷的基础上,采用臭氧(O3)-活性炭(GAC)-反硝化生物滤池(DNBF)工艺进行试验研究。经过13个月的试验证明,该工艺由于O3在脱色除臭基础上,能够强化活性炭滤池的生物多样性及活性,从而使出水CODCr能够长期稳定在30mg/L以下,NH3-N小于1mg/L。在外加碳源CH3COONa条件下,系统经DNBF后出水TN小于2mg/L。同时试验发现,为了实现经济节能及良好的污水再生效果,DNBF和O3单元在流程中的位置设置非常关键,有别于污水二级处理工艺。     

大型综合性会展物流供应商选择研究

分析了会展物流的特点,发现这些特点决定了选择合适的物流供应商是会展物流高效运行的关键因素之一。构建了会展物流供应商的一级、二级评价指标体系。应用QFD基本原理,对质量屋（HoQ）进行适当的变形,将其应用于会展物流供应商的选择,规划选择过程。最后以某大型会展物流供应商的选择为例证明该理论的有效性。同时该方法的动态适应性也为物流供应商的管理和进一步改进指明方向。