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31.
It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’
large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable
benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced
by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for
over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision
quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of
the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options
markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.
相似文献
John M. QuigleyEmail: |
32.
This article investigates the impact of spatially correlated unobservable variables on the refinancing, selling and default decisions of mortgage borrowers. Virtually the entire mortgage literature acknowledges that borrower-specific characteristics, such as culture, education or access to information, play an important role in mortgage termination decisions. While we do not observe these variables directly, we note that borrowers of similar background tend to cluster together in neighborhoods. We estimate a competing risks hazard model with random effects using a three-stage maximum likelihood estimation approach. We utilize the space-varying coefficient method to modify the covariance structure according to the spatial distribution of the observations. Beyond a significant improvement of the model performance, this yields a number of insightful implications for mortgage termination behavior. For instance, borrowers of the affluent "West Side" of Los Angeles County both refinance and move at a higher rate than predicted by the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. At the same time, borrowers from some lower-valued neighborhoods tend to stay longer than expected with their mortgages and properties. 相似文献
33.
本文从比较历史制度的视角,分析上海近代标金市场的发展与变迁。20世纪20—30年代,上海不仅是中国的金融中心,也是远东的国际金融中心,其标志是上海标金市场。上海标金市场的交易量巨大,影响到欧美日金融市场,受欧美日金融界所瞩目,位居伦敦、纽约市场之后的第三位。就今天的上海自贸区建设,有如下启示:第一,要明确目标市场的定位;第二,要具有核心竞争力的市场功能;第三,要处理好市场与政府间关系。 相似文献
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This study recognizes that commercial mortgage default is not a one-step process and examines a previously under explored aspect in the whole default process, that is the stage between the initial delinquency and default. We distinguish the servicers’ behavior from the borrowers’ behavior. A multinomial logit model is applied to analyze the servicers’ choice of workout options and a proportional hazard model is applied to analyze the borrower’s default decision-making process under time-varying conditions. We find that cash flow condition is the most significant factor in the servicers’ decision making process. We also find that borrowers make default decisions based upon both the equity position in the mortgage and the cash flow condition in the space market. Key real estate space market variables, such as market-level vacancy rates, also provide useful information in explaining commercial mortgage defaults. We find that special service seems to be successful in reducing the probability that a troubled loan will default. Finally, sensitivity analysis shows nontrivial economic significance of the impact of explanatory variables, real estate market variables in particular have the most significant impact on the pricing of special-serviced loans. 相似文献
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伴随着世界经济和科技全球化进程的加快,近年来尤其是步入新世纪后,在我国政策的大力吸引和跨国公司自身全球经营战略的推动下,跨国公司在华R&D投入规模不断扩大、层次不断提高,现已成为我国研发体系中的重要组成部分,为我国经济发展带来了众多机遇,但同时挑战亦重重. 相似文献
39.
改革开放30年来中国加工贸易发展与FDI效应及开放度效应的协整分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
通过对我国改革开放30年来的加工贸易与FDI的时间序列以及加工贸易与开放度的时间序列数据分别进行协整分析,得出的结论是:FDI的利用对我国加工贸易的发展有着很强的推动性,同时,加工贸易的良性发展又进一步反作用于FDI;我国的开放度在高时滞性的基础上也对我国加工贸易的发展产生了促进作用,拓宽了我国改革开放的广度和深度。 相似文献
40.
Most condominiums in China are sold forward on a pre-sale market, where purchasers and developers transact on an underlying
property that is not yet completed. During the pre-sale period home buyers face a significant forward contract risk. However,
home buyers can borrow mortgages from banks so that they can effectively share the forward contract risk with banks. This
explains the phenomenon of irregularly high early-stage default and prepayment rates observed in residential mortgage lending
in China, where there are few, if any, financial incentives for mortgage borrowers to exercise either put or call options.
Mortgages collateralized by forward housing assets are riskier than are those with underlying assets traded on the spot market.
However, currently Chinese mortgage banks charge the same rate to all mortgage borrowers. This inefficiency in risk sharing
between mortgage borrowers’ groups in the forward and spot housing markets leads to mispricing in secondary mortgage sales
and mortgage-backed security trading. 相似文献