Water Bloom Precursor Analysis Based on Two Direction S-Rough Set

In the field of water quality management, it is vital to determine the main precursory anomalies from the precursor of intricate water bloom in the context of a given area. In this paper, a water bloom precursor analysis method, based on two direction singular rough set, was proposed. This approach was produced on the basis of the different sections and pre-water bloom of water bloom precursor anomalies and characteristic of elements transferred in singular rough set. For testing the validity of two direction singular rough set application in water bloom precursor analysis, Xiangxi River, which is one of the typical tributaries of Three Gorges Reservoir in China, was selected as study area. The result showed that compared with other indexes, pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) are the most valuable indicators of water bloom in the precursory anomalies. Furthermore, regarding with water bloom precursory anomalies in Xiangxi River, most of the nutrient loading and biological community are the key indicators. Hence, this method can determine the main precursory anomaly for water bloom in the study area, which provides powerful knowledge support to water quality specialists for them to comprehensively analyze precursory anomaly so as to find out its relationship with occurrence law of water bloom.     

Analysis of the Spatial Characteristics of the Water Usage Patterns Based on ESDA-GIS: An Example of Hubei Province,China

The spatial characteristics and the high-duty water regions of the Water Usage Patterns (WUP) are very important for the allocation and management of water resources. Taken Hubei province, China as an example, we adopted the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) method to investigate the spatial dependence and local patterns of the WUP from 2003 to 2012. Subsequently, the spatial variation mechanisms were analyzed through the gravity center model. The results indicated that the overall spatial dependence of the agricultural WUP was detected (more significant after 2008). Moreover, the global spatial autocorrelation analysis results on the domestic WUP showed statistical significance (Moran’s I?>?0.1, P?<?0.05). These indicated that the local patterns were presented. The high values clustering areas of the agricultural and domestic WUP were mainly distributed in the central province and in the western province respectively. However, the approximate random distribution was identified for the industrial WUP because the industrial development had been conducted widely in the whole province during these years. Furthermore, the governmental policies and natural environment contributed to the spatial evolution tendency of the WUP. An increasing trend of the spatial association of the agricultural WUP and a significant decreasing trend of that of the domestic WUP, which suggested that the natural circumstance superiority and the industrial structure adjustment related to water utilization has been utilized and implemented effectively. This study can provide a useful reference and guidance for scientific planning of water resource systems.     

Medium-Term Hydro Generation Scheduling (MTHGS) with Chance Constrained Model (CCM) and Dynamic Control Model (DCM)

Medium-Term Hydro Generation Scheduling (MTHGS) plays an important role in the operation of hydropower systems. In the first place, this paper presents a Chance Constrained Model for solving the optimal MTHGS problem. The model recognizes the impact of inflow uncertainty and the constraints involving hydrologic parameters subjected to uncertainty are described as probabilistic statements. It aims at providing a more practical technique compared to the traditional deterministic approaches used for MTHGS. The stochastic inflow is expressed as a simple discrete-time Markov chain and Stochastic Dynamic Programming is adopted to solve the model. Then in order to use the information of long-term inflow forecast to improve dispatching decisions, a Dynamic Control Model is developed. Short-term forecast results of the current period and long-term forecast results of the remaining period are treated as inputs of the model. Finally, the two methods are applied to MTHGS of Xiluodu hydro plant in China. The results are compared to those obtained from Deterministic Dynamic Programming with hindsight and advantages and disadvantages of the two methods are analyzed.     

拱肋间距对喷混凝土拱肋加固效应的影响研究

喷混凝土拱肋是加固软弱围岩的一种有效支护形式,其间距主要根据经验确定,可能偏大或偏小。为了揭示拱肋间距对加筋拱肋加固效应的影响,采用基于有限差分法的FLAC3D软件对施工期某地下厂房交通洞软弱围岩在拱肋间距分别在1.0―5.0m之间变化情况下变形、应力和屈服区等分布规律进行了对比仿真模拟。仿真结果表明:拱肋间距越大,围岩变形、顶拱最大主压应力和塑性屈服区越大,拱肋承受荷载越大;且拱肋间距介于2.0―3.0m时,能充分发挥围岩自承作用和拱肋支护潜力,围岩变形稳定满足要求,支护成本最低。本文的研究成果为确定喷混凝土拱肋合理间距提供了重要参考。     

螺旋侧板厚度对浮式风力机Spar平台涡激载荷的影响

Spar平台因其特殊的深吃水立柱式结构,在来流影响下极易发生涡激运动。为探究不同厚度螺旋侧板对浮式风力机Spar平台涡激载荷的影响,基于CFD方法,针对不同厚度螺旋侧板,对平台进行了数值模拟并详细分析平台的升阻力系数、压力场及涡量场等流场参数。结果表明:螺旋侧板可有效抑制涡激载荷,且随厚度增加,升力系数幅值先增加后减小,阻力系数逐步减小;在研究范围内,螺旋侧板厚度为0.10 D时,升力系数幅值最小,阻力系数与原型平台在同一范围内,对涡激载荷的抑制效果最好。     

外掺氧化镁拱坝温控仿真分析及横缝设置研究

基于现阶段条件下的混凝土热力学参数及温控措施,考虑气温、混凝土性能随龄期的变化及MgO的膨胀性等因素,采用三维有限元法对鱼粮水库拱坝的温度场进行仿真计算分析,计算结果表明,坝体混凝土在自然入仓、冬季保温的情况下,无需采取其它温控措施,通过对比不分缝方案及分缝方案,说明设置诱导缝可改善坝体应力分布情况。通过改变缝的位置更加有利于释放大坝温度应力,且各部位应力均能满足规范要求。     

金沙江下游梯级水库汛期分期及汛限水位合理性研究

汛期分期以及分期汛限水位的合理确定,能够较好地协调水库防洪效益与发电效益之间的矛盾,对充分发挥水库的防洪、发电能力,以及提高汛期洪水资源利用率具有重要意义。基于改进的模糊集分析方法并依据金沙江下游乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝4个梯级水库入库洪水对其汛期进行分期,通过隶属度与防洪库容的映射关系确定梯级水库分期汛限水位,提出利用跨期选样法对分期结果及汛限水位进行修正。研究结果表明:金沙江下游梯级水库前汛期为6月1日—7月14日,主汛期为7月15日—9月16日,后汛期为9月17日—10月24日,4个梯级水库合理汛限水位分别为962,800,575,374 m。通过不同典型洪水放大的洪水过程检验了分期汛限水位的合理性。研究得到的金沙江下游梯级分期结果及各库分期汛限水位,均能够在满足防洪安全的前提下提高水库发电等经济效益,在一定程度上提高了汛期洪水资源的利用率。     

从广西看大西南出海通道建设

广西在大西南出海通道的建设中占有极其重要的地位，本文采用网络模型，按现状与规划路网两种情况，综合考虑陆上距离和去不同方向市场的海上距离，分析了北海（代表广西港口群）、湛江、广州等三条出海通道的三个港。各自的吸引范围。并由此得出了一些有益的结论。     

基于模糊优化模型下的IPO投资选择的研究与应用

针对影响新股投资决策的因素的不确定性,尝试把模糊优化模型应用到新股投资决策中,对新股的价值做了更加科学、合理的评价,简化了投资决策过程,得出更加有效的结论,以便于降低投资者的投资风险。给出了实例分析,得到了简便易懂的结果,具有较强的可靠性和实用性,将为投资者进行投资决策提供理论和实践指导。     

关于自然保护投入来源的探究

现阶段自然保护的目标是提高经济增长的稳定性和降低经济增长的社会成本。围绕着这一目标,解决自然保护所需投入问题的关键,是建立行之有效的投入机制。