基于公允价值计量的银行监管改革

在全球性金融监管改革进程中,美国次贷危机带来的影响是重大而深远的,人们重新从不同角度审视过去的监管制度。本文正是从在此次危机中受到广泛争议的公允价值计量角度出发,审视公允价值计量的性质与特征,审视其与银行监管的适应性关系。并基于其本质发现公允价值计量在银行监管体系中的不足和缺陷,进而寻找发挥其效力、规避其不足的监管措施。     

Political Connections and Government Subsidies: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms in China

Previous studies report mixed evidence regarding the effect of political connections on firm value. We seek new evidence in China, an important emerging market with a hallmark of a relationship-based economy. Using financially distressed firms (special treatment or ST firms) as a unique sample, we identify a direct channel through which political connections enhance firm value by showing that politically connected firms receive more government subsidies. Moreover, such effect becomes stronger for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), for firms with a better chance of survival, and after the government implemented a new policy to more strictly enforce the delisting in 2012.     

Does the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduce investors’ short-termism?

The practice of providing quarterly earnings guidance has been criticized for encouraging investors to fixate on short-term earnings and encouraging managerial myopia. Using data from the post–Regulation Fair Disclosure period, we examine whether the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduces short-termism among investors. We show that, after guidance cessation, investors in firms that stop quarterly guidance are composed of a larger (smaller) proportion of long-term (short-term) institutions, put more (less) weight on long-term (short-term) earnings in firm valuation, become more (less) sensitive to analysts’ long-term (short-term) earning forecast revisions, and are less likely to dismiss chief executive officers for missing quarterly earnings targets by small amounts, relative to investors in firms that continue to issue quarterly earnings guidance. Our study provides new evidence of the benefit of stopping quarterly earnings guidance, that is, the reduction of short-termism among investors.     

股票市场发展、资本要素积累与产业结构升级

本文从要素流动角度,在中观和微观层面上实证检验了中国A股市场是否存在推动产业结构优化升级的作用机制。实证结果表明,股票市场规模的扩大有效推动了三次产业和工业产业的结构优化升级,市场流动性的高低对产业结构优化升级存在负向效应,而城市化进程的加快及垂直专业化程度的提高可以降低该负向效应;战略性新兴产业上市公司经营绩效显著,并在创业板市场上最具成长性,而且行业内资本集中度越低、市场风险越高,越能激励行业内企业上市。本文据此在扩大股票市场规模、增强市场流动性、上市资源选择、创业板市场建设等方面提出了相应的政策建议。     

利率冲击对我国消费、产出和通货膨胀的动态效应研究

本文基于中国宏观季度数据,运用SVAR方法,得出了我国利率冲击对消费、产出和通货膨胀的经验事实:下调利率的扩张性货币政策引起消费和产出都呈驼峰型的持续增长,通胀率先以倒驼峰快速下降然后正驼峰上升,惯性回复至稳态。同时,为进一步从经济理论上解析利率冲击对消费、产出和通胀的传导机制,模拟了一个融入深度习惯的动态新凯恩斯主义模型,并运用贝叶斯方法估计模型结构参数,发现其较好地拟合了上述三个经验事实。     

Managerial ownership,board monitoring and firm performance in a family‐concentrated corporate environment

Using data from Hong Kong, a market that has family‐concentrated ownership structure, we examine the relation between managerial ownership, the board of directors and firm performance. We first conduct analysis on the managerial ownership and firm performance to derive the turning points where either ‘convergence of interest’ or ‘entrenchment’ effect of managerial ownership is dominant. Based on these estimated turning points, we find that at low and high level of ownership, effective board mitigates the entrenchment effect associated with managerial ownership; at medium level of ownership, board effectiveness is less demanded. These findings suggest that managerial ownership and board monitoring are substitutes in mitigating the agency problem between managers and shareholders. We also find that effective board curbs the excessive compensation by entrenched managers to themselves at low level of managerial ownership.     

The reform of accounting standards and audit pricing

This paper focuses on the reform of accounting standards in China in 2007 and investigates its impact on equilibrium pricing in the audit market. We find that the concentration of the audit market and the probability of issuing modified audit opinions do not significantly change, but that audit fees increase significantly after the adoption of the new accounting standards in China. Deeper analysis suggests that (1) the implementation of the new IFRS-based Chinese Accounting Standards (CASs) has increased the market risk faced by listed firms and thus auditors’ expected audit risk, causing an increase in audit fees, and (2) the degree of the increase in audit fees is positively related to the adjusted difference between net income according to the old CAS before 2007 and the new CAS after 2007. We thus conclude that the reform has had a significant impact on audit pricing in China.     

Empirically Effective Bond Pricing Model and Analysis on Term Structures of Implied Interest Rates in Financial Crisis

In his book (1993) Kariya proposed a government bond (GB) pricing model that simultaneously values individual fixed-coupon (non-defaultable) bonds of different coupon rates and maturities via a discount function approach, and Kariya and Tsuda (Financ Eng Japanese Mark 1:1–20, 1994) verified its empirical effectiveness of the model as a pricing model for Japanese Government bonds (JGBs) though the empirical setting was limited to a simple case. In this paper we first clarify the theoretical relation between our stochastic discount function approach and the spot rate or forward rate approach in mathematical finance. Then we make a comprehensive empirical study on the capacity of the model in view of its pricing capability for individual GBs with different attributes and in view of its capacity of describing the movements of term structures of interest rates that JGBs imply as yield curves. Based on various tests of validity in a GLS (Generalized Least Squares) framework we propose a specific formulation with a polynomial of order 6 for the mean discount function that depends on maturity and coupon as attributes and a specific covariance structure. It is shown that even in the middle of the Financial Crisis, the cross-sectional model we propose is shown to be very effective for simultaneously pricing all the existing JGBs and deriving and describing zero yields.     

转型经济背景下信任对新创企业资源获取的影响

转型经济背景下,新创企业需要面对复杂的不确定性和机会主义行为,这使得企业获取资源更加困难。信任是一种理想的非正式的市场治理机制,有助于新创企业在法律、法规等正式制度不能完全发挥作用的转型经济环境下,减少不确定性和机会主义行为的影响,获取更多关键性资源。     

浙江省存贷款与GDP关系的实证研究

本文取1990年至2010年浙江省存款、贷款与GDP的数据进行分析,并与发达国家比较,得出其存款/GDP偏高,贷款使用效率偏低。针对该发现,本文分析了五点原因,包括融资结构不够合理,投资市场不够成熟,社会保障程度偏低,金融市场货币化,银行经营体制变化。最后,本文给出几点政策建议:大力推动利率市场化;引导商业银行加强贷款管理,优化信贷结构;改良金融机构间竞争机制;发展其他体内融资形式;促进体外融资;建立健全和完善社会保障体系。