中国开放式基金赎回影响因素研究

通过对中国29只偏股型开放式基金的面板数据分析,本文研究发现基金的赎回与股票市场行情、基金的规模、基金单位累计净值与净值增长率有关.其中与国外成熟市场不同的是,中国开放式基金的赎回与基金业绩成正相关,即业绩好的基金面临的赎回压力也大.本文分析了此异常现象的原因,并针对基金赎回、维护基金投资者的利益提出了建议.     

Risk Probability Assessment of Sudden Water Pollution in the Plain River Network Based on Random Discharge from Multiple Risk Sources

Starting from the time variance and uncertainty of accidental discharge, this paper describes the probability of the occurrence of the “normal-accident” alternate state for a risk source using the Markov state transfer model, simulates the behaviour of pollutants in rivers using the hydrodynamic and water quality models for non-conservative substances, and tracks the transport path of pollutants in rivers using the water quality model for conservative substances. The above models are coupled with the Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, and the risk probability analysis model for sudden water pollution in the plain river network is established and applied to the Yixing river network. The results show that (a) the risk probability of exceeding ammonia nitrogen standard (PES of ammonia nitrogen) is lower in the upper reaches and higher in the middle and lower reaches; (b) dynamic changes in pollutant concentration lead to different changes in the PES of ammonia nitrogen in each reach; (c) the differences in the simulated PES values between the sudden scheme and the stable scheme (NPES of ammonia nitrogen) in the upper and middle reaches show a patchy distribution of high and low values, which are related to the risk source location, the water movement direction and the concentration change in the reach after accepting pollutant loads from the risk sources; (d) the NPES of ammonia nitrogen in the lower reaches results from the coupling effect caused by accidental discharges from multiple risk sources; and (e) the different effects of the lower boundary hydrological conditions on the upstream water inflow lead to the different coupling effect on the water quality probability of sections in the downstream area.

     

The water–energy nexus: energy use for water supply in China

China’s strategy to meet increasing water demand is to increase the use of inter-basin transfer water and unconventional water. This study evaluates the energy requirements of this strategy by disaggregating and quantifying the regional energy use for water supply in 2020 and 2030; the energy use in 2014 is calculated to represent the present situation. We find that the energy use for water supply in 2014 amounted to 81 billion kWh. This value is expected increase to 90 and 109 billion kWh by 2020 and 2030, respectively. In 2030, the urban domestic sector will overtake the agricultural sector as the most energy-intensive sector, with major contribution from inter-basin transfer water.     

City storm-flood events in China, 1984–2015

This study uses web-based information to explore the spatial and temporal trends of reported city flood events for all mainland China cities from 1984 to 2015. Panel data were compiled on flooding (or the lack thereof) within China’s cities for every year in this period, and the relationship between the annual number of cities with reported flood events and possible influencing variables was analyzed. Few cities experienced flood events before 2001, but this situation then increased dramatically after 2010. In 2015, approximately 60% of China’s cities experienced a storm-flood event, which is three times as many as the government estimated in 2011.     

Social networks,mass media and public opinions

Our opinions and ideas are shaped by what our friends said and what we read or watched on mass media. In this paper, we propose a concise and analyzable model to study the effects of mass media modeled as an applied external field, and social networks on public opinions based on the multi-state voter model, and a tuned parameter can control the relative intensity of the effects of mass media and social networks. We consider a generalized scenario where there exist committed or stubborn agents in the networks whose opinions are not affected by their friends or mass media. We find that the fraction of each opinion will converge to a value which only relates to the fractions and degrees of stubborn agents, and the relative intensity between media and network effects. The final agents with media opinion, except the stubborn agents, also include the increment produced by the internal impact of social networks and that caused by the external impact of media. Interestingly the second increment is composed of two parts, one is from the media effect when there are no interactions between agents and the other is from the influence of media on agent opinions caused by social network structure. That is the interactions among agents within social networks can amplify media influence. Finally we also discuss several extensions to the dynamics model which consider more realistic scenarios.     

京杭运河船型标准化研究

基于京杭运河标准化船型的重要性,对航道现状及现有船队进行分析,对船型研究提出了改进运输编组方式、采用升降式驾驶室、改进货船双层底、采用环境保护等一系列措施,具有一定的参考价值。     

何时“寸有所长”:组织支持感调节下员工自恋人格对工作塑造的影响

工作塑造是指员工主动塑造工作的任务、关系和意义.以往探讨个性特征与工作塑造的研究多集中在“光明”人格(如主动性人格等);而寸有所长,研究显示即使是“黑暗”人格(如自恋)也可能在一定情况下对如创造力等员工行为有着积极影响.基于情境强化模型和主动性行为的动机路径机制,本研究以374名金融行业初级管理者为调查对象,考察了员工自恋人格与组织支持感的交互效应对工作塑造以及主观职业成功的影响.研究结果表明:自恋人格与组织支持感的交互作用显著影响工作塑造,在高组织支持感下高自恋人格的员工有更多的工作塑造,但在低组织支持感下自恋人格与工作塑造不相关;研究还发现员工的工作塑造与其主观职业成功正相关;而自恋人格与组织支持感的交互作用通过工作塑造间接影响主观职业成功.     

强制分布评价法有效性的研究述评与展望——如何提高强制分布评价法的有效性

强制分布评价法在提高绩效水平上有着突出的优势,但同时也存在着引发不公平感与破坏性竞争,提高企业相关成本的风险.对于这个充满争议的绩效考核方法,学者们开始关注其有效性,并对其影响因素进行研究.本文从强制分布评价法有效性的研究背景出发,通过对强制分布评价法有效性的相关研究进行梳理,总结出影响强制分布评价法有效性的四大影响因素,包括环境、操作、考核者和被考核者四个方面,并指出企业在实施强制分布评价法时可以通过企业文化匹配性、设计合理性以及加入团队指数考核等方面来提高考核的有效性,最后总结得出关于强制分布评价法有效性的实践启示与方向展望.     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

Does the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduce investors’ short-termism?

The practice of providing quarterly earnings guidance has been criticized for encouraging investors to fixate on short-term earnings and encouraging managerial myopia. Using data from the post–Regulation Fair Disclosure period, we examine whether the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduces short-termism among investors. We show that, after guidance cessation, investors in firms that stop quarterly guidance are composed of a larger (smaller) proportion of long-term (short-term) institutions, put more (less) weight on long-term (short-term) earnings in firm valuation, become more (less) sensitive to analysts’ long-term (short-term) earning forecast revisions, and are less likely to dismiss chief executive officers for missing quarterly earnings targets by small amounts, relative to investors in firms that continue to issue quarterly earnings guidance. Our study provides new evidence of the benefit of stopping quarterly earnings guidance, that is, the reduction of short-termism among investors.