Modified Quasi‐Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching

In this paper we propose a modified quasi‐likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of one regime against the alternative of two regimes in Markov regime‐switching models. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is a simple function of Gaussian random variables, and the inference is no more complicated than in the standard case. Our simulations show that the proposed test has good finite sample size and power that are comparable to the quasi‐likelihood ratio test of Cho and White. We apply our test to stock returns and Japanese policy functions.     

Do TV-aided model lessons in class improve student performance? Evidence from public primary schools in Papua New Guinea

Lack of access to high-quality education remains a serious concern in many developing countries. This is especially the case for rural areas, including islands suffering from a shortage of skilled teachers and sufficient educational equipment. We examine the impact of introducing TV-aided model lessons in class to enhance the quality of teaching (the EQUITV project) on the national examination test scores of Mathematics and “Combined Subject” (a comprehensive subject comprising 30% science and 70% social studies and other topics) as well as English in the final year of primary education in Papua New Guinea. We employ a panel event study to capture the different timings of the intervention across schools over multiple time periods. We find that the project significantly and robustly improved test scores for girls only in English 3 years after the introduction of the project, but no improvement was seen for boys.     

Analysis on demand‐ and supply‐side responses during the expansion of health insurance coverage in Vietnam: Challenges and policy implications toward universal health coverage

This study examines how the demand and supply of healthcare services have responded to the expansion of health insurance coverage in Vietnam by using biyearly provincial panel data from 2006 to 2014. The results of our analysis indicate significant progress towards universal health coverage (UHC) in Vietnam, with the expansion of health insurance coverage being accompanied by increases in admissions and inpatient days. However, some concerns remain. Our findings show a positive response of supply capacity only in terms of doctors and nurses at higher‐level hospitals (provincial hospitals), and none in other relevant aspects. Moreover, we find no positive response of the number of outpatient visits. Another concern is the issue of financial protection. The decline in out‐of‐pocket payments is not significant throughout our observation period, suggesting that lowering the cost of healthcare is not straightforward and that the expansion of health insurance coverage alone cannot achieve this. We believe that the Vietnamese experience has valuable implications for other emerging and developing countries, considering that the expansion of health insurance coverage is likely to increase utilization of healthcare services significantly and that the supply side needs to be prepared for the increase.     

Population and Urbanization Trends in Post‐war Japan

This paper analyses the population change and urbanization process in post‐war Japan. We trace the process of population concentration into urban areas, in parallel with economic development after the war. The concentration of population into urban areas can be characterized by three major metropolitan regions: Tokyo, Keihanshin (Kyoto‐Osaka‐Kobe) and Nagoya. We also show that the urbanization process of Japan in the period from 1965 to 1985 can be characterized by two spatial phenomena; firstly, the suburbanization of the existing metropolitan areas and, secondly, the spatial dispersal of urbanized areas.     

An axiomatic approach to \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}-contamination

Summary.  Suppose that an economic agent is 100% certain that uncertainty she faces is characterized by a particular probability measure, but that she has a fear that, with 100% chance, her conviction is completely wrong and she is left perfectly ignorant about the true measure in the present as well as in the future. This situation is often called -contamination of confidence. The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple set of behavioral axioms under which the decision-makers preference is represented by the Choquet expected utility with the -contamination of confidence.Received: 25 November 2002, Revised: 15 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers:   D81. Correspondence to: Hiroyuki OzakiWe are grateful to an anonymous referee. The referees comments greatly improved the exposition of the paper. The work reported here is partially supported by a grant from the Economic and Social Research Insitute, the Cabinet Office, the Government of Japan.     

Assessment of passenger benefits brought about by international airport projects

This study sets forth a method to calculate the passenger benefits of an international airport project and assesses the passenger benefits brought about by two international airport projects.An international airport project mainly increases the number of flights and the possibility of determining convenient timetables. It does not significantly decrease the flight time of international travel. Thus, the user benefits brought about by an international airport project cannot be expressed by the conventional concept of ‘traveling time’, which is the term generally used.In this study, the ‘Expected Value of Traveling Time’ and ‘Expected Value of Generalized Cost’ are presented as indexes to evaluate improvements in convenience brought about by international airport projects. The passenger benefits of two airport projects in Japan are measured by consumer surplus calculated from the demand function using these indexes.These indexes are accurately calculated taking into consideration factors such as scheduling connections between domestic and international transport, and so enable a grasp not only of reductions in flight time, but also of passenger benefits resulting from international airport projects, such as increases in the number of flights and reductions in the time required to make transfers during domestic travel.     

Welfare effects of short-sale constraints under heterogeneous beliefs

This paper examines the welfare effects of short-sale constraints in an overlapping generations model of a financial economy with heterogeneous beliefs by focussing on the case of rational beliefs in the sense of Kurz (Econ Theory 4:877–900, 1994). To measure the social welfare, we adopt a measure that is based on the ex post social welfare concept in the sense of Hammond (Economica 48:235–250, 1981), instead of the standard ex ante criterion, since heterogeneity in beliefs invalidates it. Simulation results indicate the existence of socially optimal short-sale constraints.     

Non‐compliance with the Minimum Wage Law when Completely New Minimum Wage Laws Are Established: The Case of South Africa

Abstract: Using the case of South Africa, we study compliance with the minimum wage law when completely new minimum wage levels are established. By even the best estimate, the compliance rate in South Africa would not exceed 40 per cent for the agricultural sector and 30 per cent for the domestic worker sector. The compliance rates by subpopulation groups reveal that the compliance rate is low where the cost to comply with the minimum wage law is high, implying that government inspections are not done where they are likely to have the highest payoff. However, if the government tries to enforce the policy more strictly, the poor/less skilled would be adversely affected.