A computable general equilibrium analysis of the welfare effects of trade liberalization under different market structures

Using a static world computable general equilibrium model with 16 sectors and 14 regions, this paper compares welfare effects of trade liberalization of the perfectly competitive model and eight imperfectly competitive models. Our main findings are as follows. First, the size of the welfare impact systematically depends on the type of model. Second, the welfare impact of the perfectly competitive model is not necessarily smaller than those of imperfectly competitive models. Third, the integrated market model tends to have a larger welfare impact than the segmented market model. Fourth, the model with the fixed number of firms tends to have a small welfare impact. Finally, the variety effect tends to have a stronger influence on the welfare effects of liberalization than do scale and markup effects. Differences in the models can be viewed as differences in the economic structures of the regions being analyzed, and therefore the analysis in this paper makes it possible to derive policy implications with regard to the relationship between economic structure and trade liberalization.     

The CUSUM of squares test for the stability of regression models with non-stationary regressors

In this paper, we propose a modified CUSUM of squares test in time series regression models with a non-stationary regressor and show that the limiting distribution of this test is the sup of the absolute value of a Brownian bridge.     

Housing as a Means of Sustainable Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia

This paper addresses the economic crisis in Southeast Asia as it effects the housing sector there. Our basic argument is that the lower end of the formal housing market sector (worker housing) provides the best opportunity to restore productive employment activity while addressing basic housing needs. We call for a range of policy measures to support this outcome, based in part on the recent experience in Japan with declining real estate markets. The policies include limited subsidies, guarantees and insurance for housing loans, along with a downward indexing of housing loans, strategic infrastructure investment and promotion of local building materials. These measures are necessary under the current circumstances of deficient aggregate demand. The key is to target demand increments where they are most likely to meet the basic need for shelter while generating productive market-based activity.     

Dynamic programming and mean-variance hedging with partial execution risk

In this paper I consider a hedging problem in an illiquid market where there is a risk that the hedger’s order to buy or sell the underlying asset may be executed only partially. In this setting, I find a mean-variance optimal hedging strategy by the dynamic programming method. The solution contains a new endogenous state variable representing the current position in the underlying. The exogenous coefficients in the solution are given by recursive formulas which can be calculated efficiently in Markov models. I illustrate effects of the partial execution risk in several examples.      

Economic growth and the riskiness of investment in firm-specific skills

This paper develops a simple growth model in which workers face risks to their firm specific skills, such as far-reaching changes in business and transaction styles or drastic technological innovations, and invest in general skills to prepare for these risks. This model demonstrates that, in the presence of the economy-wide positive externality of general skills, workers’ investment in general skills exhibits a strategic complement, and thus, a low-growth trap may arise. Since a lower risk to firm-specific skills decreases workers’ incentive to invest in general skills, multiple equilibria possibilities and the amount of government subsidies for general skill investment that are required to remove the bad equilibrium increase.     

Lethal Effects of Pollution and Economic Growth: Efficiency of Abatement Technology

The accumulation of pollution negatively impacts human health. Extreme increases in pollution, in particular, may have lethal implications for human beings, and, indeed, all living organisms. This paper thus devises a new model of economic growth that takes into account these lethal effects of accumulated pollution via a pollution threshold to show two key results. First, if an abatement technology is relatively inefficient, there exists a stationary steady state in which consumption and pollution stop growing. Second, if the abatement technology is sufficiently efficient, there exists a path along which pollution decreases at an accelerating rate until it finally reaches zero. In this case, consumption grows at a constant rate.     

The relationship between production and unemployment in Japan: Okun's law in comparative perspective

This paper studies the question whether the celebrated ‘Okun's law’, a relation between excess capacity and unemployment, applies to the postwar Japanese economy. Though the fitness of estimation is weak, the coefficient that measures the responsiveness of the output gap to the unemployment rate is very large, reaching 28. This large coefficient can be attributed to the elastic response in the female participation ratio, to flexible working hours, to the slow adjustment in employment, and to changes in industrial structures. The results are compared with those in the United States.