On the economics of the longevity risk transfer market

We present a model of a longevity risk transfer market with different market players (primary insurers, reinsurers, and capital market investors) and investigate how market dynamics and the market players' roles evolve with progressing market saturation. We find that reinsurers' appetite for longevity risk is the key driver in the early stage of market development. Since diversification benefits with other businesses decrease with every transaction, the reinsurance market is intrinsically antimonopolistic. With the increasing saturation of the reinsurance sector as a whole, its competitiveness shrinks leading to rising expected risk-adjusted returns for capital market investors. We show that in a saturated market, reinsurers should assume the entire longevity risk from primary insurers, diversify it within their business mix, and subsequently pass on only specific (nondiversifiable) components of the longevity risk to the capital markets. Our findings provide valuable suggestions on how to make the best use of the market's limited risk absorption capacity.     

Development and perspectives of the Australian Coal Supply Chain and Implications for the Export Market

The Australian coal industry is critical for the nation’s domestic energy supply and economy with an export value of almost A$24 bn in the fiscal year 2007/08. With almost 75% of production destined to the export market, Australia is also the world’s largest hard coal exporter and an essential secure source of energy particularly to meet both thermal and metallurgical coal demand in the fast growing Pacific Rim. This paper examines the Australian mining sector prospects to retain its position as the world’s largest coal exporter in the mid-term, by analysing the potential increases in export capacity along the coal supply chain through expansions in mine, rail and port capacities. Despite current financial challenges and restrictions, the authors conclude that export volumes, depending on demand, could rise by 50% in the period to 2014.     

Cross‐hedging and forward‐contract pricing of electricity in the Pacific Northwest

This paper develops a linear regression model for using actively traded NYMEX natural gas futures as a cross‐hedge against electricity spot‐price risk in the Pacific Northwest and for pricing the forward contracts in the presence of temperature and hydro risks. Our approach comports with reality and provides power purchasers with an effective instrument through which they can hedge their electricity bets through natural gas futures. It also demonstrates the sharp month‐to‐month variations in the natural gas futures' optimal hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness. Finally, it finds significant risk premiums in the Pacific Northwest forward prices, supporting the hypothesis that forward‐contract buyers are relatively more risk‐averse than sellers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INVESTIGATING ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO HARMONISE MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT DATA

Over recent years a small number of global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases were developed to describe the entire global economy at high sector detail. We investigate the differences that arise out of applying different construction procedures for two global MRIO databases: The EXIOBASE database, developed as part of the EU FP6 & 7 programs and the Eora database developed at the University of Sydney. The procedures used in EXIOBASE involve a high degree of interrogation and adjustment throughout the construction of the data set, whilst the Eora MRIO relies on single-step mathematical programming techniques and high-performance computing. We unravel the effect of the different approaches taken to develop the databases by undertaking a number of combinatorial experiments in which we exchange parts of the construction process between the EXIOBASE and Eora build pipelines. We conclude that Eora's highly automated data reconciliation approach produces MRIO databases that are of comparable quality to those constructed with EXIOBASE's multi-step approach. However, the reliability and robustness of the resulting MRIO database largely depend on the level of detail and reliability of the underlying raw data.     

Allowing disagreement in evaluations of social welfare

There is no consensus on how to measure interpersonally comparable, cardinal utility. Despite of this, people repeatedly make welfare evaluations in their everyday lives. However, people do not always agree on such evaluations, and this is one important reason for political disagreements. Thus, to keep in control of the normative premises, decision makers may prefer information which can be used as input to an arbitrary social welfare function to information which is the output from a social welfare function specified by the analyst. In this paper we try to identify and simplify sufficient welfare indicators; information which enables decision makers to arrive at welfare evaluations of social states or projects, according to their own ethical beliefs. Our conclusion is that providing factual information about different population groups, their social state, size, and characteristics, may be better for this purpose than the more traditional approach of focusing on ordinal utility information.     

Computer capacity utilisation – a multilevel perspective on decades of decline

This article uses a multilevel perspective to explain why there has been a dramatic decline in the utilisation of computer-processing power during the last two to three decades. It identifies that computers have been used in two different ways – either as single-user systems where each users received his or her own computer or as time-sharing systems where each computer was shared by several users. It finds that the time-sharing systems made considerably better use of the computers' resources than the single-user systems and that the utilisation of computer-processing power began to decline as single-user microcomputers began to replace time-shared minicomputers and mainframes. The article argues that this development contradicts much of the recent research on capacity utilisation, but argues that this contradiction can be explained by analysing this development as a transition process with multiple levels of interaction.