Inflation and Welfare in Latin America

This paper follows Bailey (J Polit Econ 64:93–110, 1956) and Lucas (Econometrica 68:247–274, 2000) and estimates the welfare cost of inflation for 17 Latin American economies. We use annual data, from 1955 to 2000, and recent advances in the field of applied econometrics to estimate the inflation rate elasticity of money demand and report significantly high and differential welfare cost estimates for these economies.     

The International Reserves Issue in the EMU

This paper examines the effects of the Economic and Monetary Union on demand for foreign reserves. The traditional theory on demand for international reserves assigns a pivotal role to imports. However, in a currency union part of imports are settled in the common currency, leaving no incentive for keeping foreign reserves. Moreover, the pooling of the demand for reserves in the currency union and an increasing role of a currency as an international reserve currency may also influence, among other things, the union demand for reserves. Based on estimated demand functions for reserves it is shown that the Economic and Monetary Union has reduced the demand for reserves substantially. It is argued that an enlargement with new member countries of the European Union will result in further savings of reserves. A simple calculation at the end of the paper illustrates the welfare gain associated with the reduced need of reserves in the Economic and Monetary Union.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Induce Domestic Mergers?

This paper examines the impact of foreign firm entry on the industry consolidation process in a host country that operates through mergers and exits of incumbent firms. Using a three-stage oligopolistic model, the paper shows that foreign direct investment (FDI) may trigger consolidation via a merger since the approval of a domestic merger by the antitrust authority is more likely in the case a foreign firm enters via FDI and a firm’s incentive for a domestic merger is greater and that, in turn, the possibility to merge and become more efficient modifies the outcome of the game by making FDI compared to exports less likely.     

Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.     

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

Customer Centric Company

Literaturhinweise

Customer centric company     

Impact of IT Service Management Frameworks on the IT Organization

Over 90 percent of companies are estimated to use IT Service Management (ITSM) frameworks, yet there is little research on their benefits to the Information Technology (IT) department and the business units. An international survey of 491 firms was conducted to assess the benefits of the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL), the de-facto ITSM framework, specifically on how these benefits evolve as companies increase their adoption of the ITIL model. Also studied are the perception of challenges of the implementation and the number of ITIL processes implemented in relation to the progress of the adoption of ITIL. Results indicate that as the maturity of implementation increases, the perception of challenges decreases. Findings also show that as the maturity of implementation increases, the number of realized benefits increases, as well as the number of implemented ITIL processes. Implications for practitioners and researchers are also discussed.