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A wide range of empirical biases hampers hedge fund databases.In this paper we focus upon survival-related biases and disentanglelook-ahead biases due to self-selection of funds and due tofund termination. Self-selection arises because funds voluntarilyreport their information to data vendors and may decide to stopdoing so. By extending existing methodology, we analyze persistencein hedge fund performance over the period 1994–2000, takinginto account the above biases. The results show that look-aheadbiases due to liquidation and self-selection enforce each otherand may lead to overestimating expected returns by as much as8% per year. Overall, the results are consistent with positivepersistence in hedge fund returns at horizons of two and fourquarters.  相似文献   
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A two-sector growth model with endogenous technical change is presented. Concerning technical change, we assume that it is reflected by increases in the stock of human capital which are acquired through learning by doing. As a result, it turns out that transitory or, using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, persistent oscillations of the economic variables may be the outcome. Thus we are able to show that learning mechanisms alone may be sufficient to destroy the circular flow as described by Schumpeter.  相似文献   
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This article presents a case study of a big German enterprise (Siemens) facing a large wave of public critique and protest activities. The public was concerned about the political circumstances surrounding the construction of the Cabora Bassa hydroelectric dam in Mozambique in which Siemens was largely involved.This study reports the escalating protest against the firm over three years (1970–1972) and the firm's responses during that period. The analysis of the case focusses on the behaviour of the firm which is interpreted in the light of the business social responsibility doctrine. The article proposes that the firm experienced a legitimation crisis and responded by reorienting its philosophy of business.Georg Schreyögg is Professor of Management at the Department of Business at Fern Universität Hagen. He has written five books on Quality of Working Life, Organizational Theory and Business Strategy, and several articles, published in various business journals. His recent research has addressed strategic control.Horst Steinmann is Professor of Management at the faculty of business at Universität Erlange-Nürnberg. He has written several books and a number of articles. His most recent research interest focusses on business ethics and the philosophy of dialogue.Our case is based on an analysis of documents and on interviews. Because the project received wide public interest, many documents, handbills, memoranda, articles, etc. were available. In addition, we had access to internal Siemens documents (letters, internal memoranda, policy statements, delivered opinions, etc.). Much of the material was filed in the Cabora Bassa archive of Siemens which was kindly opened to the researchers. Reconstructing the flow of events was facilitated by interviews with Siemens managers then responsible for the project. The company approved of the publication of the internal memoranda and data cited. Special thanks are due to Wilhelm Forstmann for his support and his willingness to answer all our questions in a series of interviews.  相似文献   
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Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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In the midst of the EU’s current “polycrisis “, several serious dangers threaten the future of Europe’s unity. The looming Brexit vote as well as the refugee crisis and–above all–the rise of nationalistic, right-wing extremist parties demonstrate the fragility of the EU. One of the EU’s fundamental problems is its institutional design in general. In particular the role of the European Central Bank is not fit for the challenges of the time. Moreover, the EU is facing disintegrative pressures while simultaneously pursuing moves towards deepening the Union as a reaction to the multiple crises. Against this background, it is highly likely that differentiation within the EU will increase. Deeper cooperation among small groups of member states will likely increase efficiency but may also reduce transparency, accountability and cohesion within the EU. If handled well, differentiation may also open new pathways for cooperation with the EU’s neighbours and accession countries. The foundation for a fresh start in Europe is the Franco-German relationship, as only these two Member States together can prevent Euroscepticism from spreading even further and the new radical right from taking control of Europe.  相似文献   
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