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61.
Higher dimensional multivariate time series models suffer from the problem of over-parametrisation which impairs their forecasting performance. Starting from such unrestricted vector autoregressive models the paper discusses two ways to cope with this difficulty. The first approach reduces the number of free parameters by applying a subset modelling strategy. The second approach takes a Bayesian point of view by formulating ‘priors’ which are then combined with sample information, but leaving the original specification unaltered. Using Austrian quarterly macroeconomic time series a comparative study is undertaken by running alternative forecasting exercises. Both methods improve out-of-sample forecasting performance substantially at the cost of some bias in ex-post simulations. Comparing the ex-ante predictions of the two approaches, the former does better at short horizons whereas the latter gains as the forecast horizon lengthens. 相似文献
62.
We analytically assess the effects of changes in longevity on the interest rate, the consumption-savings behavior, and the optimal retirement decision within a dynamic general equilibrium setting. We derive a simple sufficient condition for which the optimal retirement age always increases with life expectancy. Numerical assessment reveals that for realistic parameter values that reflect the situation in industrialized countries, the optimal retirement age indeed increases with life expectancy and the sufficient condition tends to be fulfilled. Together with the fact that the actual retirement age did not increase in industrialized countries over the last decades, while there have been large improvements in longevity, this leads us to conclude that strong monetary and institutional incentives for early retirement exist and these counteract the effects of increasing life expectancy. Our policy conclusion is that the retirement age should be partially linked to life expectancy and that incentives for early retirement should be removed. 相似文献
63.
Klaus Matthies 《Intereconomics》1999,34(2):101-104
While there has been little change in prices for industrial commodities since last autumn, the price of oil continued its downward trend to the end of the year. Many commodity exporting countries are suffering under the burden of low prices. Will the long-awaited recovery begin this year? 相似文献
64.
The paper examines a game-theoretic model of a financial market in which asset prices are determined endogenously in terms of a short-run equilibrium. Investors use general, adaptive strategies (portfolio rules) depending on the exogenous states of the world and the observed history of the game. The main goal is to identify portfolio rules, allowing an investor to “survive,” i.e., to possess a positive, bounded away from zero, share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon. The model under consideration combines a strategic framework characteristic for stochastic dynamic games with an evolutionary solution concept (survival strategies), thereby linking two fundamental paradigms of game theory. 相似文献
65.
Nathaniel Beck 《Statistica Neerlandica》2001,55(2):111-133
This article treats the analysis of 'time-series–cross-section' (TSCS) data. Such data consists of repeated observations on a series of fixed units. Examples of such data are annual observations on the political economy of OECD nations in the post-war era. TSCS data is distinguished from 'panel' data, in that asymptotics are in the number of repeated observations, not the number of units.
The article begins by treating the complications of TSCS data in an 'old-fashioned' manner, that is, as a nuisance which causes estimation difficulties. It claims that TSCS data should be analyzed via ordinary least squares with 'panel correct standard errors' rather than generalized least squares methods. Dynamics should be modeled via a lagged dependent variable or, if appropriate, a single equation error correction model.
The article then treats more modern issues, in particular, the modeling of spatial effects and heterogeneity. It also claims that heterogeneity should be assessed with 'panel cross-validation' as well as more standard tests. The article concludes with a discussion of estimation in the presence of a binary dependent variable. 相似文献
The article begins by treating the complications of TSCS data in an 'old-fashioned' manner, that is, as a nuisance which causes estimation difficulties. It claims that TSCS data should be analyzed via ordinary least squares with 'panel correct standard errors' rather than generalized least squares methods. Dynamics should be modeled via a lagged dependent variable or, if appropriate, a single equation error correction model.
The article then treats more modern issues, in particular, the modeling of spatial effects and heterogeneity. It also claims that heterogeneity should be assessed with 'panel cross-validation' as well as more standard tests. The article concludes with a discussion of estimation in the presence of a binary dependent variable. 相似文献
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National and European regulatory initiatives like the Bologna process frame the conditions for research activities at universities. The changed conditions increase the pressure to publish articles in highly-ranked, mostly international academic journals. It seems likely that expectations of the international research community will affect the applied research methods, the regional focus of the research object and the tendency towards co-authorship. Against this background, the present article conducts a literature review in order to examine the publication activities of German-speaking auditing researchers and discusses further explanations for the observed developments. We examine 308 journal articles by German-speaking auditing researchers between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis documents an increase in the number of articles over time as well as an increase in articles in highly ranked journals. In recent years a higher share of the research applies empirical methods, in particular statistical interference. A dominant topic of the articles is the audit market and environment. Thematic focuses vary over time, partly due to day to day events. The research object remains focused on a European and especially national context in many cases. We present selected key research results and finally discuss challenges for research activities coming along with the described developments. 相似文献
69.
Meta-Functional Benefit Transfer for Wetland Valuation: Making the Most of Small Samples 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
This study applies functional Benefit Transfer via Meta-Regression Modeling to derive valuation estimates for wetlands in
an actual policy setting of proposed groundwater transfers in Eastern Nevada. We illustrate how Bayesian estimation techniques
can be used to overcome small sample problems notoriously present in Meta-functional Benefit Transfer. The highlights of our
methodology are: (i) The hierarchical modeling of heteroskedasticity; (ii) The ability to incorporate additional information
via refined priors; and (ii) The derivation of measures of model performance with the corresponding option of model-averaged
Benefit Transfer predictions. Our results indicate that economic losses associated with the disappearance of these wetlands
can be substantial and that primary valuation studies are warranted.
相似文献
70.