Raw materials prices remain low

While there has been little change in prices for industrial commodities since last autumn, the price of oil continued its downward trend to the end of the year. Many commodity exporting countries are suffering under the burden of low prices. Will the long-awaited recovery begin this year?     

Asset market games of survival: a synthesis of evolutionary and dynamic games

The paper examines a game-theoretic model of a financial market in which asset prices are determined endogenously in terms of a short-run equilibrium. Investors use general, adaptive strategies (portfolio rules) depending on the exogenous states of the world and the observed history of the game. The main goal is to identify portfolio rules, allowing an investor to “survive,” i.e., to possess a positive, bounded away from zero, share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon. The model under consideration combines a strategic framework characteristic for stochastic dynamic games with an evolutionary solution concept (survival strategies), thereby linking two fundamental paradigms of game theory.     

Time-series–cross-section Data

This article treats the analysis of 'time-series–cross-section' (TSCS) data. Such data consists of repeated observations on a series of fixed units. Examples of such data are annual observations on the political economy of OECD nations in the post-war era. TSCS data is distinguished from 'panel' data, in that asymptotics are in the number of repeated observations, not the number of units.
The article begins by treating the complications of TSCS data in an 'old-fashioned' manner, that is, as a nuisance which causes estimation difficulties. It claims that TSCS data should be analyzed via ordinary least squares with 'panel correct standard errors' rather than generalized least squares methods. Dynamics should be modeled via a lagged dependent variable or, if appropriate, a single equation error correction model.
The article then treats more modern issues, in particular, the modeling of spatial effects and heterogeneity. It also claims that heterogeneity should be assessed with 'panel cross-validation' as well as more standard tests. The article concludes with a discussion of estimation in the presence of a binary dependent variable.     

Prüfungsforschung im deutschen Sprachraum – Bestandsaufnahme, Entwicklungstendenzen und Herausforderungen

National and European regulatory initiatives like the Bologna process frame the conditions for research activities at universities. The changed conditions increase the pressure to publish articles in highly-ranked, mostly international academic journals. It seems likely that expectations of the international research community will affect the applied research methods, the regional focus of the research object and the tendency towards co-authorship. Against this background, the present article conducts a literature review in order to examine the publication activities of German-speaking auditing researchers and discusses further explanations for the observed developments. We examine 308 journal articles by German-speaking auditing researchers between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis documents an increase in the number of articles over time as well as an increase in articles in highly ranked journals. In recent years a higher share of the research applies empirical methods, in particular statistical interference. A dominant topic of the articles is the audit market and environment. Thematic focuses vary over time, partly due to day to day events. The research object remains focused on a European and especially national context in many cases. We present selected key research results and finally discuss challenges for research activities coming along with the described developments.     

Meta-Functional Benefit Transfer for Wetland Valuation: Making the Most of Small Samples

This study applies functional Benefit Transfer via Meta-Regression Modeling to derive valuation estimates for wetlands in an actual policy setting of proposed groundwater transfers in Eastern Nevada. We illustrate how Bayesian estimation techniques can be used to overcome small sample problems notoriously present in Meta-functional Benefit Transfer. The highlights of our methodology are: (i) The hierarchical modeling of heteroskedasticity; (ii) The ability to incorporate additional information via refined priors; and (ii) The derivation of measures of model performance with the corresponding option of model-averaged Benefit Transfer predictions. Our results indicate that economic losses associated with the disappearance of these wetlands can be substantial and that primary valuation studies are warranted.      

Getting a feel for price affect: A conceptual framework and empirical investigation of consumers' emotional responses to price information

Behavioral pricing research is cognitively biased. Therefore, the research agenda for this paper is to examine consumers' emotional responses to price information, or price affect. A conceptual framework of price affect based on appraisal theory is proposed. Moreover, a psychometric measure of price affect capturing positive and negative emotions is derived. A field experiment involving N = 1533 consumers reveals that a price increase leads to changes in price affect. Also, negative price affect is related to passive consumer behavior, whereas positive price affect is associated with proactive consumer behavior. Yet, a price increase reduces the importance of price affect in predicting consumer behavior. In addition, both price cognitions and price affect mediate the effect of a price increase on consumer behavior. Consistent with appraisal theory, a price increase exerts its causal influence on price affect through changes in price cognitions. Similarly, price affect mediates the effect of price cognitions on consumer behavior. Finally, price affect improves the prediction of consumer behavior beyond price cognitions. Results suggest that price affect is a stand alone, previously overlooked predictor of consumer behavior. Implications are discussed. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Patrick Rössler nach Erfurt berufen

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