New institutional economics: what does it have to offer?

This article discusses the empirical relevance of what is considered two prinicipal contributions to the new institutional economics–the contributions of A. Schotter and O. Williamson – and draw three general conclusions. First, it is argued, on the basis of a comparison of the above mentioned two contributions to new institutional economics, their empirical relevance cannot be discussed in general but must be based on separate analyses of the two contributions and will depend on the institutions which are analysed. Secondly, that it is especially within analyses of consequence and design of institutions that the Williamson-approach to new institutional economics presently has something to offer while there seems to be rather limited possibilities for application of the approach of Schotter. Thirdly, that in their future development, the two contributions can probably both mutually benefit each other and benefit from an integration of elements from other institutional theories.     

Technology assessment network building: The International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions

With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.     

On the cultural basis of gender differences in negotiation

We study how culture and social structure influence bargaining behavior across gender, by exploring the negotiation culture in matrilineal and patriarchal societies using data from a laboratory experiment and a natural field experiment. One interesting result is that in both the actual marketplace and in the laboratory bargaining game, women in the matrilineal society earn more than men, at odds with years of evidence observed in the western world. We find that this result is critically driven by which side of the market the person is occupying: female (male) sellers in the matrilineal (patriarchal) society extract more of the bargaining surplus than male (female) sellers. In the buyer role, however, we observe no significant differences across societies.     

Moment explosions in stochastic volatility models

In this paper, we demonstrate that many stochastic volatility models have the undesirable property that moments of order higher than 1 can become infinite in finite time. As arbitrage-free price computation for a number of important fixed income products involves forming expectations of functions with super-linear growth, such lack of moment stability is of significant practical importance. For instance, we demonstrate that reasonably parametrized models can produce infinite prices for Eurodollar futures and for swaps with floating legs paying either Libor-in-arrears or a constant maturity swap rate. We systematically examine the moment explosion property across a spectrum of stochastic volatility models. We show that lognormal and displaced-diffusion type models are easily prone to moment explosions, whereas CEV-type models (including the so-called SABR model) are not. Related properties such as the failure of the martingale property are also considered.

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Sri Lanka’s Rural Non-Farm Economy: Removing Constraints to Pro-Poor Growth

We use a survey of rural enterprises from Sri Lanka to explore characteristics of the informal non-farm sector and identify obstacles to its expansion and productivity. Value added in this sector amounts to 80% of agricultural GDP participating households’ incomes are significantly higher than those of households who do not participate. Barriers to entry are low and the impact of non-farm development on inequality modest, implying a large potential contribution to growth and poverty reduction. Infrastructure constraints negatively affect new startups, investment in, and productivity of existing enterprises, with small enterprises being particularly affected.     

Variance-ratio Statistics and High-frequency Data: Testing for Changes in Intraday Volatility Patterns

Variance-ratio tests are routinely employed to assess the variation in return volatility over time and across markets. However, such tests are not statistically robust and can be seriously misleading within a high-frequency context. We develop improved inference procedures using a Fourier Flexible Form regression framework. The practical significance is illustrated through tests for changes in the FX intraday volatility pattern following the removal of trading restrictions in Tokyo. Contrary to earlier evidence, we find nodiscernible changes outside of the Tokyo lunch period. We ascribe the difference to the fragile finite-sample inference of conventional variance-ratio procedures and a single outlier.     

Price dynamics under imperfect information

The paper considers the pricing decision of a monopolist firm having demand and costs exposed to nominal and real shocks which include both permanent and transitory changes. The firm obtains information through both price and quantity signals and the price equation is found by use of a filtering technique. It is shown that imperfect information implies nominal price smoothing where the price adjusts only partially relative to the past price by incorporating new information observed through price and quantity signals.     

Organizational interfaces and innovation: The challenge of integrating supplier knowledge in LEGO systems

Suppliers have become increasingly important as partners in firms' innovation efforts. Reaping potential collaboration benefits is complex due to challenges in combining internal and external knowledge. The paper explores how various types of organizational interfaces between buyer and supplier create both opportunities and problems for their joint actions. The paper is based on a longitudinal case study of attempts to develop an innovative packaging solution for the toy manufacturer LEGO systems. The study shows that buying firms need to carefully analyse what form of organizational interface access to prioritize since each type offers its specific possibilities and drawbacks. Furthermore, the feasibility of organizational interfaces may change over time due to mutual organizational learning.