The welfare state after the great recession

The economic crisis has given rise to significant challenges to the welfare state. Given that welfare expenses account for a large proportion of all state spending in the member countries of the European Union, reducing government spending means cutting welfare measures. Yet social protection, in particular unemployment insurance benefits and minimum income support, has significantly softened the impact of the crisis for millions of individuals. The global recession calls into question the financial viability of current programmes, and the crisis is being used by some as an opportunity to roll back the welfare state permanently. The present Forum discusses challenges to and opportunities for the welfare state after the crisis.     

An indirect treatment comparison of the efficacy of insulin degludec/liraglutide (IDegLira) and insulin glargine/lixisenatide (iGlarLixi) in patients with type 2 diabetes uncontrolled on basal insulin

Aims: To obtain estimates of the relative treatment effects between insulin degludec/liraglutide (IDegLira) and insulin glargine U100/lixisenatide (iGlarLixi) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) uncontrolled on basal insulin therapy.

Materials and methods: Data from phase 3 trials providing evidence for estimating the relative efficacy and safety of IDegLira vs iGlarLixi in patients uncontrolled on basal insulin-only regimens were used in this analysis. Outcomes of interest were changes in HbA_1c, body weight and insulin dose, and rate ratio of hypoglycemia. The indirect comparison of the reported trial findings followed the principles of Bucher et al.

Results: IDegLira was estimated to provide a 0.44 [95% CI?=?0.17–0.71] %-point reduction in HbA_1c compared with iGlarLixi. Body weight was reduced by 1.42 [95% CI?=?0.35–2.50] kg with IDegLira compared with iGlarLixi. Insulin dose was comparable between the two interventions. The rate of severe or blood glucose-confirmed (self-measured plasma glucose [SMPG]?≤?3.1?mmol/L) hypoglycemia with IDegLira was approximately half that of iGlarLixi (rate ratio?=?0.51 [95% CI?=?0.29–0.90]). However, using the American Diabetes Association definition of documented symptomatic hypoglycemia (SMPG ≤3.9?mmol/L) the rate was comparable between the two treatments (rate ratio?=?1.07 [95% CI?=?0.90–1.28]).

Limitations: The assumptions made in the indirect comparison and differences between the included trials in baseline HbA_1c levels, previous use of sulfonylureas, definitions of hypoglycemia, presence or absence of run-in period, the different duration of the trials, and the cross-over design of one of the trials.

Conclusions: The results of this indirect treatment comparison demonstrate that, among patients with T2DM uncontrolled on basal insulin, treatment with IDegLira results in a greater reduction of HbA_1c and a greater reduction in body weight compared with iGlarLixi at similar insulin doses.     

Segregation and gender wage gaps in the private and the public sectors: an analysis of Danish linked employer–employee data, 2002–2012

This paper examines the relation between segregation and the gender wage gap in the public and the private sectors in Denmark from 2002 to 2012. The analysis shows that male–female differences in the share of females in occupations, industries, establishments and job cells (occupations within establishments) constitute 46 % of the raw gender wage gap in the private sector, while segregation in the public sector accounts for as much as 63 %. Segregation thus plays a substantially more important role in accounting for the gender wage gap in the public sector than in the private sector. While the importance of segregation for wage formation decreased substantially in the public sector over time, it only decreased slightly in the private sector. Although the remaining gender wage gap, after controlling for segregation, is close to zero in the public sector, a substantial within-job cell differential remains after controlling for segregation in the private sector.     

An adapted TPB approach to consumers’ acceptance of service-delivery drones

Organisations and marketers have long debated the consumer–brand relationship. Theorising related to this debate led to self-service technologies, which were implemented to both reduce costs and increase productivity by turning customers into co-producers of services or merely to keep up with technological developments. With the emergence of disruptive technologies, it is imperative to discuss the potential shift from a customer co-created value to a customer–technology relationship that could disrupt the value-based relationship model. In line with advancements in service-delivery drones, and based on the theory of planned behaviour framework, this paper pioneers the discussion on consumers’ intention to accept their use based on their related perceived risks, potential functional benefits, and relational attributes, leading to a new type of relationship with the brand – namely, the customer–drone relationship. This discussion opens a new direction for retailers and academics alike to reflect on during the coming years.     

Comparing the Forecasting Performance of Futures Oil Prices with Genetically Evolved Neural Networks

In this paper, a hybrid system combining neural networks and genetic training is designed to forecast future oil prices. The architectural design is that of the multilayer back propagation network that is fed monthly prices for West Texas Intermediate covering the period 1986–2014. The model’s predictions are compared to those of the one, two, three, and four-month futures prices and are evaluated both on their level of accuracy as well as correctness. While accuracy measures the degree of error, correctness tests the model’s ability to predict the direction of the movement. By processing information more efficiently, and identifying patterns that may be ill-defined as a result of pronounced price volatility, this paper aims to improve the accuracy of oil price forecasts.     

Financial profiles and the disclosure of expenditures for socially responsible purposes

Recently the relationship between “socially responsible” activities and the financial performance of corporations has received attention in the business literature. Most studies have focused on the market reaction of shareholders to the disclosure of both monetary and nonmonetary corporate contributions relating to pollution control, employee welfare, affirmative action, and other activities deemed to be in the public interest. Results of this research have been mixed, with some authors finding favorable market response to socially responsible actions, and others finding no difference between the market performance of more and less responsible firms. The purpose of this paper is to examine financial performance and socially responsible activities from a different perspective. Specifically, it examines the relationship between the disclosure of monetary expenditures for various social initiatives and composite financial accounting profiles of disclosing and nondisclosing firms. Using two-group discriminant analysis, the authors conclude that management tends to disclose monetary expenditures for these generally nonproductive purposes at times when the financial statements of the firm otherwise look favorable to shareholders. Such disclosure in a sample of Fortune 500 firms in 1976 and 1977 was clearly not unrelated to financial performance, and neither did it appear to occur in order to explain relatively poor financial statements.     

Scientific publications, patents and technological capabilities in late-industrializing countries

Investments in learning in late-industrializing countries have began to include outputs in the form of scientific publications and patents. We examine the patterns which these outputs take by correlating their growth rates with foreign investment, capital formation, R&D expenditures and other variables. We also analyze the scientfic fields of Publications. Where possible, we compare the patterns of latecomers with those af advanced countries, and try to assess whether there has been convergence or divergence in the number of patents and scientific publications over time.     

International Integration, Risk and the Welfare State

How does international integration affect the welfare state? Does it call for a leaner or an expanded welfare state? International integration may affect the distortions caused by welfare state activities but also the risks motivating social insurance mechanisms. This paper addresses these potentially counteracting effects in a fully specified intertemporal two–country stochastic endowment model, focusing on the implications when product market integration reduces trade frictions across national product markets. It is shown that lower trade frictions may increase the marginal costs of public funds, which gives an argument for reducing (steady–state) public consumption. However, tighter integration of product markets unambiguously leads to more variability in private consumption, and this gives a case for expanding the social insurance provided via state–contingent public sector activities (automatic stabilizers). JEL classification: E30; F10; H11     

Leadership and change management

The purpose of this article is to understand that the reason so many programs fall short in addressing and improving competitiveness is that their single focus is on information technology, to instill in our minds that there are many other elements of change that need to be considered (behavior being one), and to present an overview of the motor, the motive, and the mirror that drive behavior and its characteristics.