Response measurement and optimization of direct mailings

Beginning with 1995, we discuss different studies that deal with response measurement and optimization of direct mailings. Most of these studies analyze data sets from mail order companies or charities. We classify various dependent and predictor variables and??w.r.t. the latter distinguish static and dynamic effects. Response models are divided into parametric and flexible models. Besides, we analyze important modeling aspects, i.e., latent heterogeneity and endogeneity. Optimization methods are presented according to whether they refer to static or dynamic objectives. Based on these modeling aspects we evaluate the different studies. Considering various studies of model evaluation it becomes evident that logit models frequently constitute a good choice. However, Bayesian neural nets and Tobit models turn out to be good alternatives. As predictor effects are concerned results vary. Authors do not completely agree on which variables are the most important. Furthermore, signs and significances of predictors vary across studies. The majority of studies neglect latent heterogeneity and endogeneity. Finally, results show that there are still plenty of interesting research possibilities, such as a comprehensive evaluation of models or new specifications of (mailing) variables.     

Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility

We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample tests. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight US dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980–2005 period—implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates—and GARCH(1,1) parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the structural breaks. We also find that it almost always pays to allow for structural breaks when forecasting exchange rate return volatility in real time. Combining forecasts from different models that accommodate structural breaks in volatility in various ways appears to offer a reliable method for improving volatility forecast accuracy given the uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of the structural breaks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Connectivity and control in the year 2000 and beyond

By now, most executives are familiar with the famous Year 2000 problem--and many believe that their companies have the situation well in hand. After all, it seems to be such a trivial problem--computer software that interprets "oo" to be the year 1900 instead of the year 2000. And yet armies of computer professionals have been working on it--updating code in payroll systems, distribution systems, actuarial systems, sales-tracking systems, and the like. The problem is pervasive. Not only is it in your systems, it's in your suppliers' systems, your bankers' systems, and your customers' systems. It's embedded in chips that control elevators, automated teller machines, process-control equipment, and power grids. Already, a dried-food manufacturer destroyed millions of dollars of perfectly good product when a computer counted inventory marked with an expiration date of "oo" as nearly a hundred years old. And when managers of a sewage-control plant turned the clock to January I, 2000 on a computer system they thought had been fixed, raw sewage pumped directly into the harbor. It has become apparent that there will not be enough time to find and fix all of the problems by January I, 2000. And what good will it do if your computers work but they're connected with systems that don't? That is one of the questions Harvard Business School professor Richard Nolan asks in his introduction to HBR's Perspectives on the Year 2000 issue. How will you prepare your organization to respond when things start to go wrong? Fourteen commentators offer their ideas on how senior managers should think about connectivity and control in the year 2000 and beyond.     

Australian Labor Relations Through American Eyes

This article describes how Australia's conciliation and arbitration system emerged in the eighteen nineties and the key role it still plays in that county's labor relations. The respective roles of unions, management, and conciliation and arbitration are discussed, as are dispute resolution procedures at the national, industry-occupational, company, and plant levels. The functions of strikes and other forms of "industrial action" are examined.     

TRADE DIVERSIFICATION,INCOME, AND GROWTH: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

This paper surveys the empirical literature on export and import diversification and its linkages with growth. We review widely used measures of diversification and the evidence about their evolution focusing on how export diversification relates to trade liberalization and economic development. We also discuss the linkages between trade diversification and productivity at the firm and industry level, highlighting new advances on the linkages between import diversification and productivity.     

Delphi,political philosophy and the future

Based on the Delphi technique, the project described in this article seeks to integrate the teaching of classical political science with the analysis of problems facing contemporary and future society. Experts on particular political philosophers of the past were asked to imagine how those men would have viewed and solved present political problems, and thus to use their knowledge to develop a new approach to policy analysis.     

Relative Price Determination in the Medium Run: The Influence of Wages,Productivity, and International Prices

This work explores three critical assumptions of the Balassa-Samuelson productivity differential model for the short and medium run: wage equalization, competitive labor markets, and purchasing power parity. The data reveal violations in these assumptions for France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Significant wage and unit labor cost differentials exist across industries, and traded and nontraded sectors and these differentials do not diminish over time. The findings are consistent with the presence of industry and/or sectoral-specific human capital.