An agenda for futures research

Is there an identity crisis in futures research ? The author reviews the character of the discipline in the light of its ten years of development and maintains that futures research is empirical, “pre-scientific” and in the category of operations research. The scope for a scientific approach is therefore in forming a coherent methodological body of principles. The author identifies specific tasks in 21 areas, related to data collection, model construction, experimentation, systems analysis, exploratory and normative applications, which seem to him to be particularly in need of such attention.     

Kursunterschiede und Renditen deutscher Stamm-und Vorzugsaktien

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

On the link between volatility and growth

A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible parametric restrictions. This analysis implies that controls for taxes should be included in the standard growth-volatility regressions. Our estimates show that the conventional Ramey–Ramey coefficient is affected sizeably. In addition, tax levels do indeed appear to affect volatility in our empirical application.     

A cost-benefit analysis of moose harvesting in Scandinavia. A stage structured modelling approach

A cost-benefit analysis of moose (Alces alces) harvesting in Scandinavia is presented within the framework of an age structured model with four categories of animals (calves, yearlings, adult females, and adult males). The paper aims to demonstrate the economic content of such a wildlife model and how this content may change under shifting economic and ecological conditions. Two different harvesting regimes are explored: landowner profit maximization, where the combined benefit of harvesting value and browsing damage is taken into account, and overall management, where the costs and damages of moose-vehicle collisions are taken into account as well. An empirical analysis of the Norwegian moose stock indicates that the present stock level is far too high compared with the overall management scenario, and that the composition of the harvest could be improved.     

Versicherungsfremde Leistungen in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung

In der jüngeren Vergangenheit ist eine Tendenz zur verst?rkten Finanzierung der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung mit Haushaltsmitteln des Bundes erkennbar. Mit einem Bundeszuschuss sollen die Aufwendungen der GKV für versicherungsfremde Leistungen fi nanziert werden. Ob der Bundeszuschuss korrekt bemessen ist, kann aber nur dann festgestellt werden, wenn auch der Umfang der versicherungsfremden Leistungen in der GKV bekannt ist.     

Vorschau 6 / 2010

Vorschau

Vorschau 6 / 2010     

Integration of management systems: A methodology for operational excellence and strategic flexibility

Organisations employ various management systems (MSs) to systematically address the needs of their stakeholders. As the number of MSs is mushrooming, the need has arisen to integrate them into one holistic business management system that addresses various stakeholder requirements in an integrated manner. However, the dynamics of the integration process are not yet fully understood and research has yet to establish how the integration of MSs gives rise to various types of organisational improvements. This paper focuses on how the integration process unfolds in practice to give rise to a number of socio-technical changes essential to the integration of MSs. This research is based on four cases; it reveals that integration streamlines operational processes through a number of structural, functional, and operational changes. Integration reforms bureaucratic structures, further giving rise to operational excellence and strategic flexibility. The research also provides the extension of lean production practices bundles, and an operationalisation of Adler’s concept of enabling bureaucracy.     

Do Retail Investors Follow Insider Trades?

On the basis of transaction records of retail investors provided by a large financial institution, this article analyzes whether, in the aggregate, retail investors do copy insider trades. The results suggest that insider trades are indeed an important piece of information for the transactions of retail investors, whose buy–sell imbalances (BSIs) increase in stocks which insiders buy, and whose BSIs decrease following insider sales. These results are robust when considering stock characteristics and general attention effects. With regard to trading insider stocks, retail investors’ preferences for growth and attention are less pronounced when compared with trades of noninsider stocks.