De Proliferatie van Economische Modellen

Bespreking vanE. Scheele, Einkommensverteilung und Wirtschaftswachstum, J. C. B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), Tübingen 1965, 263 blz. enE. Heuss, Die Verbindung von mikroökonomischer und makroökonomischer Verteilungstheorie. Walter Eucken Institut. VortrÄge und AufsÄtze. J. C. B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), Tübingen 1965, 40 blz.     

Stock index dynamics and derivatives pricing with stochastic interest rates

The paper analyzes the equilibrium valuation of stock index derivatives in an economy with stochastic interest rates and with a representative agent having time-additive power utility. The equilibrium short interest rate dynamics and the equilibrium term structure of interest rates are described by an affine one-factor term structure model. In equilibrium the value of the stock index is a non-trivial function of the short interest rate. The paper investigates the consequences of the induced stock index dynamics for the theoretical spreads between index forward prices and index futures prices and the consequences for the valuation of options on stock index futures.The paper was written while the author was a visiting scholar at Department of Finance, Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University. I thank for helpful comments and suggestions from Gurdip Bakshi, Avi Bick, Menachem Brenner (the editor), Zhiwu Chen, San-Lin Chung, Mark Fisher, Andreas Höger, Marti Subrahmanyam, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Western Finance Association meeting in San Diego, the European Financial Management Association meeting in Istanbul, the European Finance Association meeting in Vienna, and the Center of Analytical Finance workshop at University of Aarhus. Financial support from the Danish Natural Science and Social Science Reasearch Councils is gratefully acknowledged.     

Farmers,Middlemen and Exporters: A Model of Market Power,Pricing and Welfare in a Vertical Supply Chain

Markets for cash‐crops in developing countries are typically characterized by a concentration of buyer power at different levels of the supply chain. For instance, small‐scale coffee farmers sell their produce to a middleman, who in turn sells the coffee onward to an exporter, often a foreign multinational, with monopsony power in the hands of the purchasers at both levels. We analyze pricing behavior and welfare with different assumptions regarding market power. In particular, we show that a more powerful exporter is likely to benefit the producers and may even lead to higher welfare for the producer country as a whole.     

Recontextualising a strategic concept within a globalising company: a case study on Carlsberg's ‘Winning Behaviours’ strategy

A corporate strategy is often formulated on the executive floor at headquarters. However, in order to make it live in an organisation, middle management and employees must be involved and make sense of it. These actors thus contribute to, participate in and enact the strategy in processes where it may take on new meanings and forms. This article investigates how ‘Winning Behaviours’, a strategic concept developed on the initiative of top management at the Carlsberg Group in order to improve global integration in the multinational organisation, was recontextualised. It draws upon interviews and observations as well as documents collected at the company headquarters in Denmark and in its subsidiaries in China and Malaysia. Here, expatriate and local managers tried to give sense to the Winning Behaviours in various ways, and employees brought their own local leadership ideals into play when they tried to make sense of the preferred behaviours and turn them into daily practices. The process of creating a new strategic concept and making it live in other sociocultural contexts was facilitated by headquarters staff in the Human Resources and Communications departments, who thus played an important role as change agents in the ‘glocal’ strategy process.     

State support to small stores: A Nordic form of consumer policy

From the early 1970s, the Governments of Finland, Norway, and Sweden have shown considerable concern for the plight of rural consumers consequent on the closure of small stores in sparsely populated areas. In each country, special commissions were established to consider the consequences of retail concentration and legislation has been introduced to provide aid to small retail business in rural areas. The paper examines the background to this legislation and compares and contrasts the measures adopted in each of the three countries. While the policies attempt to improve the viability of rural small stores, it is argued that the measures are essentially a special type of consumer policy and that not only is there a need for more research into the effectiveness of the policies, but that perhaps the measures ought to be extended somewhat, particularly to protect the interests of consumers in urban areas.

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Staatliche Unterstützung des kleinen Einzelhandels: eine skandinavische Form von Verbraucherpolitik

Zusammenfassung Die Regierungen Finnlands, Norwegen und Schwedens befassen sich seit etwa zhen Jahren mit der Situation von Verbrauchern in dünn besiedelten ländlichen Gebieten, die sich durch das Verschwinden kleiner Ladengeschäfte verschlechtert. Es wurden Kommissionen zur Untersuchung der Auswirkungen der Konzentration im Einzelhandel gebildet und Gesetze zur Förderung des kleinen Einzelhandels in ländlichen Gebieten erlassen. Dieser Beitrag behandelt den Hintergrund dieser Entwicklung und vergleicht die in den drei Ländern angewendeten staatlichen Maßnahmen, die in ihrem Kern als eine spezielle Form von Verbraucherpolitik betrachtet werden.Der Hintergrund für solche Stützungsmaßnahmen ist gekennzeichnet durch strukturelle Veränderungen im Einzelhandel seit dem 2. Weltkrieg. Seit den 50er Jahren und verstärkt in den Jahren zwischen 1960 und 1973 ging die Zahl der traditionellen Gemischtwarenläden um bis zu 50% zurück. Die Konzentration hat dazu geführt, daß der Kolonialwarenhandel von drei bis vier Ladenketten bestimmt wird und viele ländliche Gemeinden gar keinen oder nur noch einen einzigen örtlichen Laden besitzen.Um dieser Entwicklung entgegenzuwirken, bieten alle drei Staaten Investitionszulagen für die Modernisierung und Vergrößerung von Ladengeschäften. Norwegen und Schweden gewährt darüber hinaus auch Zuschüsse zu den laufenden Kosten. Abbildung 1 (S. 200) gibt einen Überblick über die Unterschiede, die zwischen den drei Ländern bestehen, jeweils im Bereich der staatlichen Maßnahmen, der Voraussetzungen, an die die staatliche Unterstützung geknüpft sind, und der verwaltungstechnischen Abwicklung.Die Betrachtung der Auswirkungen der Unterstützungsprogramme ergibt, daß in Norwegen nahezu 50% der infragekommenden Geschäfte eine Unterstützung erhielten und das Ladensterben im Laufe der Jahre von jährlich etwa 650 auf jetzt etwa jährlich 300 verringert werden konnte. In Finnland wurden bis Ende 1977 109 Geschäfte unterstützt; außerdem richtete die Regierung 10 neue Läden ein und kaufte zusätzlich 113 mobile Verkaufsstellen. In Schweden bekamen in den ersten vier Jahren 97 Läden eine Unterstützung, durch die für 20 000 Verbraucher in ländlichen Gegenden und weitere 5000 Feriengäste die Möglichkeit notwendiger Einkäufe gesichert werden konnte.Der Beitrag plädiert für eine Erweiterung der bisherigen Maßnahmen, um auch die tieferen Probleme des kleinen Einzelhandels angehen zu können. Er stellt dabei die wichtige soziale und wirtschaftliche Rolle heraus, die der kleine Laden im ländlichen und im städtischen Bereich übernimmt. Insofern wird der skandinavischen Gesetzgebung Modellcharakter auch für andere moderne Volkswirtschaften zugesprochen.Der Beitrag schließt ab mit einigen Vorschlägen für künftige Forschung und stellt dabei vor allem heraus (a) die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse der staatlichen Maßnahmen, (b) die Untersuchung der Reaktionen der Händler auf die Förderungsprogramme und der Auswirkungen auf die geförderten Geschäfte und (c) die Analyse der Einstellungen und des Verhaltens der Verbraucher gegenüber kleineren Geschäften, um zu ermitteln, ob diese Geschäfte den Ansprüchen und den Bedürfnissen der örtlichen Kundschaft tatsächlich besser entsprechen. Darüber hinaus richtet sich ein eher theoretisches Interesse auf die Eigenschaften, die eine Volkswirtschaft aufweisen sollte, wenn die Unterstützung des kleinen Einzelhandels zugleich ein erfolgreiches verbraucherpolitisches Instrument sein soll.

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Knut Ekhaugen is Head of Department for Economic Research, Norwegian Productivity Institute, Akersgt. 64, Oslo 1, Norway. Sigmund Grønmo is Research Director, Norwegian Fund for Market and Distribution Research, Fredensborgveien 24, Oslo 1, Norway; and Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Oslo, Blindern, Oslo 3, Norway. David Kirby is Senior Lecturer in Geography and Director of the Small Shops Research Unit at St. David's University College, University of Wales, Lampeter. Currently he is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Norwegian Fund for Market and Distribution Research, Oslo.     

Distributional effects of environmental taxes on transportation: evidence from Engel curves in the United States

Indirect taxes on transportation activities that pollute can correct externalities and close the gaps between private and social costs. However, policy makers often find such Pigou taxes difficult to implement because of political resistance due to possibly adverse affects on equity. For this reason it is important to assess the distributional aspects of environmental levies. This article estimates properties of the demand for transportation in parametric and non-parametric analyses of Consumer Expenditure Surveys for the United States and finds patterns in the resulting set of Engel curves. Private transportation using air flights and new cars has Engel elasticity above unity while public transportation via mass transit has Engel elasticity below unity. The findings can be interpreted in an important way since they show that a differentiated scheme of environmental taxes on transportation may function progressively. A Pigou scheme with larger taxes on modes of transportation that pollute more appears to coincide with larger levies on luxury modes preferred by richer households.     

The Purchase of Equipment in Consumer Production of Outdoor Experiences

Consumers use combinations of goods to produce experiences. In order to produce outdoor experiences, consumers include environmental amenities as production factors in addition to purchasable instruments such as equipment. While amenities are not marketed, equipment is. Inspecting consumer purchases of the latter may uncover attitudes towards the former. Purchases of equipment are realized money outlays in a market and constitute lower bounds for the willingness to pay for one factor in outdoor experience production. This study investigates income and demographic effects in the demand for outdoor equipment over time in Norway, and examines the proportion of purchasing households for each year. Results show that equipment is a luxury item, and that it becomes more popular over time. The findings are relevant to policymakers in two ways since use of equipment may entail environmental degradation, but purchases of equipment may reflect a willingness to pay for environmental standards.     

The performance of model based option trading strategies

This paper analyzes returns to trading strategies in options markets that exploit information given by a theoretical asset pricing model. We examine trading strategies in which a positive portfolio weight is assigned to assets which market prices exceed the price of a theoretical asset pricing model. We investigate portfolio rules which mimic standard mean-variance analysis is used to construct optimal model based portfolio weights. In essence, these portfolio rules allow estimation risk, as well as price risk to be approximately hedged. An empirical exercise shows that the portfolio rules give out-of-sample Sharpe ratios exceeding unity for S&P 500 options. Portfolio returns have no discernible correlation with systematic risk factors, which is troubling for traditional risk based asset pricing explanations.