The effects of mergers on price and output: Two case studies from the airline industry

The literature on industrial organization contains very little direct evidence on the effects of actual mergers. This study estimates the effects of two recent airline mergers approved by the Department of Transportation over the objection of the Department of Justice. The merger of TWA and Ozark appears to have caused a slight increase in fares and a far greater reduction in service on city pairs out of St Louis. The merger of Northwest and Republic appears to have caused a significant increase in fares and a significant reduction in overall service on city pairs out of Minneapolis-St Paul.     

The local economic impact of construction projects in a small and relatively self-contained economy: The case of Lancaster University

Whilst the local multiplier impacts of the annual operation of universities has been the subject of intensive research, the economic impacts of capital construction projects have been almost completely ignored. This paper presents the results of detailed analysis of capital projects at Lancaster University in 1993-The reasons for the radically different annual operation and construction multipliers estimated in the Lancaster study are examined. Despite the smaller size of construction multipliers it is argued that it is a serious mistake to estimate local construction multipliers by making simplifying assumptions on the size of the key parameters in the multiplier equations.     

Nash equilibrium reconsidered and an option for maximin

In this paper we will discuss some peculiarities of the Nash equilibrium which are at odds with its standard applications: (a) the underlying dynamic interpretation, (b) the incentive independency if equilibria are mixed, and (c) the unprofitability if equilibrium and maximin are mixed and the game is 2-by-2. Maximin is proposed as an alternative solution concept in “relevant situations”.     

The Structure of Protection in Indonesia in 1989 1

Around the mid-1980s, Indonesia's protectionist regime supported an industrial structure in which industries were mainly oriented towards producing for the domestic market. Since then, trade policies have shifted to a more outward-looking strategy, stimulating the growth and diversification of non-oil manufactured exports. This paper attempts to quantify the nominal and effective rates of protection resulting from trade policies at the end of the 1980s. After an introduction in which the 1989 trade policies are discussed, estimates of nominal and effective rates of protection are presented. It is shown that though the level of protection has declined since 1987, it still varies widely across economic sectors. Furthermore, despite the more open trade strategy, the paper's findings show that the trade regime remains biased against exports. Finally, by examining some trade policy issues, the paper presents further ways of rationalising the structure of protection in Indonesia's industrial sector.     

THE LOCATION OF NONMETROPOLITAN HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES: A Comparison of Regional Determinants

A study of the location of three classifications of high-tech industries in rural areas was undertaken using ordinary least squares, Tobit, and a two-step estimation procedure suggested by Heckman (1976). The results indicate that the location decision for high tech firms is influenced primarily by the county population, adjacency to an SMSA, and the expenditures on public infrastructure (exclusive of education expenditures). However, location near interstate highways was generally not a significant factor. Results were similar between branch and unit (single ownership) plants. Some differences in signs of orders of magnitude occurred among the estimation procedures. Making a choice between Tobit and Heckman approaches depends upon the goal of the research.     

Optimal Collective Investment in Generic Advertising, Export Market Promotion and Cost-of-Production-Reducing Research

Optimal investment rules are developed for a producer agency investing in domestic-market generic advertising, export market promotion, and cost-of-production-reducing research. These rules are derived assuming either maximization of producers' surplus or social surplus. The form of the optimality rules differs according to which objective is pursued. Fixed producer agency budgets are also allowed by incorporating a constraint limiting total expenditure on the three activities. Addition of such a constraint substantially alters the structure of the optimal investment rules. Differences in these rules highlight the importance of accounting for the financing mechanism when modeling optimal checkoff fund investment decisions. Optimality rules are simulated using data for the Canadian beef sector. Results suggest historic underinvestment in domestic-market generic advertising but overinvestment in export market promotion. Sensitivity of simulation results underscores the difficulty in assessing optimality of historic producer investment in cost-of-production-reducing research.     

Financing budget deficits in the Netherlands

Summary In The Netherlands public debt management is in the hands of the budgetary policy-maker, whose recourse to the capital market can exceed or fall short of the total borrowing requirement in order to absorb or create liquidity. The conduct of that policy since the early 1960's is analyzed in this paper, emphasizing the importance of medium-term control over the public finances as a prerequisite for the ability of debt management to make a flexible contribution to monetary policy. During the 1960's this condition was satisfied and debt management followed a stable countercyclical pattern which, however, was abandoned after the early 1970's as the public finances swung into substantial disequilibrium.The author thanks J. Boughton, L. Bovenberg, D. Hendry, P. Masson, J. Muellbauer, and the referees for comments on earlier versions. However, the views expressed are his alone and do not necessarily represent those of the International Monetary Fund.