政治关联、金融发展与债务治理——以我国国有控股上市公司为例

债务融资要发挥治理功能,需要硬的约束环境。然而,政治关联的存在会破坏这种硬约束环境。但金融发展水平可以降低政治关联的这种不利影响,从而促进债务治理作用的发挥。基于这一推理,以我国沪深两市A股上市公司2006～2010的全面板数据为样本,研究了政治关联、金融发展对债务治理功能的影响程度及方向。研究结果表明:政治关联会削弱长期债务的治理功能,其对短期债务的治理功能没有产生负面影响;金融发展水平的提高一方面可以进一步提升债务的治理功能,另一方面可以减弱政治关联带来的不利影响。     

International Propagation of the Credit Crisis: Lessons for Bank Regulation*

The authors use a large sample of non‐U.S. banks to examine the origins and spread of the 2007–2009 crisis. Using both stock market and structural variables, they test whether the effects of the crisis on individual banks are better explained by crisis models or by the VaR‐type analysis of the Basel system. The latter emphasizes risk weightings for individual assets while ignoring linkages that could leave banks exposed to systemic shocks. Consistent with crisis models, the authors find that a small set of pre‐crisis measures of a bank's international linkages, leverage, and the fragility of its liability structure does a good job of discriminating between banks that suffered a large impact and those that did not. (Indeed, these measures explain almost 50% of the differences among banks' stock returns during the crisis period, and almost 40% of the changes in the variability of those returns.) The authors also provide evidence of both a direct linkage among banks' stock returns and an indirect linkage that could reflect either linkages in the real economy or common demands by investors for liquidity. The authors run a “horse race” that demonstrates that simple measures of book leverage were better predictors of bank performance than the Basel capital ratios. They find that banks with lower Basel risk weightings prior to the crisis proved, on average, to be more exposed to the crisis. The authors' explanation is that banks with lower Basel risk measures tended to operate with higher leverage and more aggressive funding strategies, which in turn exposed them to greater crisis risk (even as they conformed to the letter of the Basel system in terms of asset risk measures). Finally, the authors find no evidence that substandard governance was a separate contributing factor to crisis exposure. Banks with substantial international business that were exposed to systemic shocks had high governance scores.     

Morphing: The Linkage of Inward Private Equity and Outward Ventures

Private equity is impacting the global economy and competitive landscape of multinational enterprises (MNEs) worldwide. In this pioneering study, we find an important new pattern for global interfirm connections: an inward private equity investment is inductive for emerging MNEs to conduct an outward venture. This inward‐outward linkage implies that emerging MNEs are more likely to undergo a series of organizational changes after receiving private equity investments. These changes include restructuring their boards of directors, rebuilding their top management teams, reconfiguring their corporate resources, reframing the industry structure, and altering competitive dynamics. These organizational changes induce emerging MNEs to modify their strategies such as speeding up the internationalization process, locating additional outward ventures in advanced economies, and choosing more complex entry modes, particularly cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We describe this type of evolving internationalization of emerging MNEs as a “morphing” process with in‐depth case studies on emerging Chinese MNEs including Lenovo, Zoomlion, Geely, Alibaba.com, Huawei, NVC Lighting, and BYD. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

外资银行进入对内资银行绩效影响的文献回顾及实证研究

外资银行进入对内资银行的绩效究竟将会产生怎样的影响?本文通过实证研究的分析方法,阐述了外资银行进入新兴市场经济国家,对东道国内资银行业的绩效影响。得出长期比短期更具有积极影响的结论,并进一步阐述了外资银行进入对我国银行业的影响及实证研究结论对我们的启示。     

Modeling the bid/ask spread: measuring the inventory-holding premium

The need to understand and measure the determinants of market maker bid/ask spreads is crucial in evaluating the merits of competing market structures and the fairness of market maker rents. This study develops a simple, parsimonious model for the market maker's spread that accounts for the effects of price discreteness induced by minimum tick size, order-processing costs, inventory-holding costs, adverse selection, and competition. The inventory-holding and adverse selection cost components of spread are modeled as an option with a stochastic time to expiration. This inventory-holding premium embedded in the spread represents compensation for the price risk borne by the market maker while the security is held in inventory. The premium is partitioned in such a way that the inventory-holding and adverse selection cost components, as well as the probability of an informed trade, are identified. The model is tested empirically using Nasdaq stocks in three distinct minimum tick size regimes and is shown to perform well both in an absolute sense and relative to competing specifications.     

A Look Back at Modern Finance: Accomplishments and Limitations

In a conversation held in June 2016 between Nobel laureate Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago and Joel Stern, chairman and CEO of Stern Value Management, Professor Fama revisited some of the landmarks of “modern finance,” a movement that was launched in the early 1960s at Chicago and other leading business schools, and that gave rise to Efficient Markets Theory, the Modigliani‐Miller “irrelevance” propositions, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. These concepts and models are still taught at prestigious business schools, whose graduates continue to make use of them in corporations and investment firms throughout the world. But while acknowledging the staying power of “modern finance,” Fama also notes that, even after a half‐century of research and refinements, most asset‐pricing models have failed empirically. Estimating something as apparently simple as the cost of capital remains fraught with difficulty. He dismisses betas for individual stocks as “garbage,” and even industry betas are said to be unstable, “too dynamic through time.” What's more, the wide range of estimates for the market risk premium—anywhere from 2% to 10%—casts doubt on their reliability and practical usefulness. And as if to reaffirm the fundamental insight of the M&M “irrelevance” propositions—namely, that what companies do with the right‐hand sides of their balance sheets “doesn't matter”—Fama observes that “we still have no real resolution on the key questions of debt and taxes, or dividends and taxes.” But if he has reservations about much of modern finance, Professor Fama is even more skeptical about subfields now in vogue such as behavioral finance, which he describes as “mostly just dredging for anomalies,” with no underlying theory and no testable predictions. Although he does not dispute that a number of well‐documented traits from cognitive psychology show up in individual behavior, Fama says that behavioral economists have thus far failed to come up with a testable theory that links cognitive psychology to market prices. And he continues to defend the concept of “efficient markets” with which his name has long been closely associated, while noting that empirically based asset pricing models such as his (with Ken French) “three‐factor” CAPM have produced much better results than the standard CAPM.     

The Leveraging of Corporate America: A Long‐Run Perspective on Changes in Capital Structure

In a study published recently in the Journal of Financial Economics, the authors of this article documented a substantial increase in the use of debt financing by U.S. companies over the past century. From 1920 until the mid‐1940s, the aggregate leverage of unregulated U.S. companies was low and stable, with the average debt‐to‐capital ratio staying within the narrow range of 10% to 15%. But during the next 25 years, the use of debt by U.S. companies more than doubled, rising to 35% of total capital. And since 1970, aggregate leverage has remained above 35%, peaking at 47% in 1992. Moreover, this pattern has been observed in companies of all sizes and operating in all unregulated sectors. Changes in the characteristics of U.S. public companies during this period provide little help in explaining the increase in corporate leverage. For example, the displacement of tangible by intangible assets in many sectors of the U.S. economy during the past 50 years would have led most economists to predict, holding all other things equal, a reduction rather than an increase in aggregate corporate leverage. Instead, according to the authors' findings, the main contributors to the increases in U.S. corporate leverage since the 1940s have been external changes, including increases in corporate income tax rates, the development of financial markets and intermediaries, and the reduction in government borrowing in the decades following World War II. The authors' analysis also identifies these last two changes—the development of financial markets, including the rise of institutional investors and shareholder activism, and the post‐War reduction in government debt—as having played the biggest roles in the leveraging of corporate America.     

城镇化水平与经济增长互动效应的动态分析——基于山东省1978-2009年的数据

通过选取1978-2009年山东省城镇化水平与人均GDP的时间序列数据,运用动态经济计量模型,对城镇化水平与经济增长的互动效应进行了实证分析.实证结果表明,山东省城镇化水平与经济增长之间存在着稳定的长期均衡关系,且两者变动具有同向性,短期内城镇化对经济增长的拉动作用要强于经济增长对城镇化的影响,城镇化对经济增长的长期影响则更为显著.方差分解结果显示,山东省城镇化水平与经济增长之间的相互冲击影响差异明显.     

全球经济失衡加剧的政策成因——基于中美内外部经济失衡的视角

本文以中美两国内外部经济失衡为视角,从政策层面解释了2001～2007年全球经济失衡为何呈扩大趋势,提出了全球经济失衡加剧的＂政策引致假说＂。从中美两国角度来分析,全球经济失衡即表现为中美两国的外部经济失衡。结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）分析表明,中国的引进外资政策致使经常账户盈余过多,这种外部经济失衡进一步引起了内部经济失衡。国民收入决定模型（AENI）分析认为,美国为应对其内部经济失衡,采取的减税政策使其外部失衡加剧。为应对全球经济失衡,中国应调整其引进外资的政策,进行出口部门的产业结构升级;美国应适时调整其税收政策,减少财政赤字,削减贸易壁垒,等等。     

Privatization and globalization: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the link between globalization-measured by foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) – and privatization of state-owned enterprises, in a multi-country sample that focuses on developing countries. We hypothesize that privatization has an effect on FDI/FPI as the process of fostering private sector participation is often accompanied by liberalization reforms, and by allocations of substantial shares of newly privatized firms to foreign investors. Similarly, we expect FDI/FPI to foster privatization efforts as new capital inflows, technology and managerial skills that accompany FDI/FPI make the environment more prone to competition, providing governments with incentives to privatize inefficient firms that need to be turned around. This relation is assessed in two ways, first in a dynamic panel using a generalized method of moments approach, and second through panel causality tests. We find a bi-directional positive relation between privatization proceeds and globalization, particularly in the case of FDI.