虚拟水贸易理论与实证研究进展述评

虚拟水贸易在解决水资源短缺方面有重要作用,研究与利用虚拟水贸易对促进我国水资源管理观念和制度创新具有重要参考价值。文章从理论与实证两个方面梳理了虚拟水与虚拟水贸易的最新研究进展。一方面,分析了虚拟水与虚拟水贸易理念的演变与发展历程,另一方面,系统分析了国内外有关国际贸易中虚拟水含量计算与虚拟水贸易作用等问题。经过对现有研究成果的梳理与分析,发现无论是在研究内容方面,还是在研究方法方面都需要进一步充实与完善。     

山东省农村居民消费结构实证分析

运用扩展线性支出系统模型对山东省农村居民消费结构的特点及变化趋势进行实证分析。结果表明：食品和衣着是居民基本需求的重点,交通通讯和居住可能会成为未来农村居民的消费热点。因此,要实现消费结构升级,需从拓宽增收渠道入手,把握居民消费热点,刺激居民消费。     

Combining the minimum-variance and equally-weighted portfolios: Can portfolio performance be improved?

It is documented in the literature that due to estimation errors, mean-variance efficient portfolios deliver no higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios than does the naïve equally-weighted portfolio (EWP). This paper demonstrates how the out-of-sample performance of the minimum-variance portfolio (MVP) can be improved in the presence of estimation errors by combining the MVP and EWP. Our results indicate that an appropriate combination of the MVP and EWP can enhance Sharpe ratios under any scenarios considered, and can also reduce the portfolio risk if short-selling is allowed. However, the combination strategy is not able to generate a lower risk level than the MVP when a short-selling restriction is imposed. We find that the optimal combination coefficient depends on the factors that greatly impact estimation errors in the MVP, including sample size, estimation method, no-short-selling restriction, and length of the out-of-sample period under consideration.     

Migrate for education: An unintended effect of school district combination in rural China

A large number of village primary schools in rural China were closed since the 1990s. This paper studies the impact of the reduction in the number of primary schools on the migration decision of rural residents. First, using China Health and Nutrition Survey that contains information on community characteristics, we find that both the disappearance of village primary school and the increased distance to nearby primary school increased the migration probability of village residents. Second, using the 1% population survey in 2005 and prefecture level information, we find that the decline in the number of primary schools between 2000 and 2004 increased the migration probability of rural residents. Exploring the heterogeneous effects, we find that the migration of individuals with primary-school-age children is more sensitive to the relocation of primary schools, and that the effect is stronger for families with boys than those with girls. These results suggest that human capital investment motive and regional education policy play an important role in China's urbanization process.     

基于利益相关者理论的卷烟品牌营销渠道控制力研究

本文基于利益相关者理论,深入分析我国卷烟营销渠道中的问题,并从增值客户和加强卷烟销售专卖管理两个方面,提出了增强烟草公司卷烟营销渠道控制力的建议。     

权力变迁冲击下的东亚安全新态势

权力转移是导致国际关系不稳定的重要诱因,是影响安全格局调整的主要变量。随着中国崛起,东亚区域内的权力分配出现了明显的权力变迁,但还远未出现权力转移。即便如此,东亚地区安全格局也正在出现深刻的调整和变化。权力变迁究竟将在多大程度上改变和主导未来区域安全架构的演变,这既是一个理论问题,更是一个严峻的政策话题。美国再平衡战略的根本目的是为了强化美国单极霸权体制下的东亚安全。美国意图在安全和经济两条战线上把握东亚区域政治发展的主导权,维持区域内国家对美国的战略信心和同盟依赖,牵制中国崛起并力图削弱中国崛起给美国单极霸权所带来的消极地区效应,充分获取中国崛起给美国及其盟友带来的诸多战略红利。面对中国崛起,区域内国家会采取强化军事同盟体系,借重域外因素的影响力或者实施新的区域战略等方式调整相应的安全政策。中国崛起的未来应该是在均势与制度合作的同时发展中重建一个更具包容性的东亚安全新秩序。对于权力变迁所带来的地区安全秩序重组,必须要有深刻的认知以确保战略的正确导向和积极效应,在均势与制度合作的双重进程中重建东亚安全的未来。     

Effect of CEO power and board strength on bank performance in China

Given that a powerful CEO is more likely to overcome problems and control performance in a firm, this study first focuses on exploring whether CEO power positively affects certain measures of bank performance and which sources of CEO power have these positive impacts. Next, this study further analyzes whether the positive impact of CEO power on performance is negatively mediated by board strength. Our sample includes data on the three main types of Chinese banks for 2006 to –2016.Our results show that CEO structural power significantly improves a bank’s overall profitability, risk-taking ability and lending quality, CEO ownership power significantly raises a bank’s lending quality, and CEO expert power significantly increases a bank’s overall and shareholder profitability. As considering the endogeneity, CEO prestige power significantly improves a bank’s overall profitability. Next, we use the proportion of independent directors as our measure of board strength and find that a stronger board reduces the beneficial effects of CEO structural power on a bank’s lending quality, of CEO ownership power on shareholder profitability, and of CEO expert power on lending quality. There are similar harmful mediating effects when we use the proportion of foreign investors and board size as measures of board strength. Our results can help Chinese bank authorities develop policies to appropriately raise bank CEOs’ power and reduce board supervision of CEO power.     

延伸售后保证服务对电子产品供应链决策的影响分析

文章研究了延伸售后保证服务对电子产品供应链决策的影响,分析了三种不同"延伸售后保证服务"提供模式的最优决策问题,结果表明:当服务成本相同时,分散决策结构下,零售商提供延伸售后保证服务,能够降低零售价格和延伸售后保证服务价格,可以获得较高的经济效益与社会效益;无论是分散决策还是集中决策,延伸售后保证敏感系数对不同模式最优决策的影响是一致的,零售价格与批发价格是其增函数,供应链各成员的利润、延伸售后保证服务价格是其减函数;当集中决策时,无论是制造商还是零售商提供"延伸售后保证服务",集中决策有较低的零售价格,和更高的"延伸售后保证服务"价格,延伸售后服务成为系统利润增加的保证。     

我国蔬菜价格垂直传导的非对称性研究——基于面板VAR模型的实证

运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对我国蔬菜的生产价格、批发价格和零售价格的垂直传导机制进行实证研究,结果表明我国蔬菜三种价格的波动幅度和增长速度自上而下呈依次增强的特征;价格的正向传导顺畅,逆向传导存在一到两期的滞后,传导强度上存在正向传递强度明显高于逆向传递的非对称现象;生产价格在整个价格波动的传导链中占主导地位,蔬菜价格的稳定在很大程度上依赖于蔬菜的生产环节。     

Managers as the bridge: How cultural friction influences the integration of cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Going beyond cultural distance, the present study adopts a more contextualized view of cultural friction to account for the “actual cultural contacts” in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs), and meanwhile builds a case-based measure of cultural friction to quantitatively capture the country- and deal-level cultural differences between the acquirer and the target in each CBMA. Differing from the existing research that takes the influence of cultural differences on CBMA performance for granted, we highlight the importance of managers from the acquiring firm by theorizing that cultural friction between the acquirer and the target can shape acquiring managers' choice of managerial practices to complete the managerial tasks during integration, leading to different performance. In particular, we postulate a curvilinear relationship between the cultural friction and CBMA performance. By incorporating regulatory focus theory into our analytical framework, we further hypothesize how this curve is shaped by managers’ regulatory focus, a key motivational trait at the firm management level. Using a sample of 304 completed CBMAs conducted by Chinese listed firms, our empirical results verify the U-shaped relationship between cultural friction and the CBMA integration performance, and suggest that this relationship is flattened by acquiring managers’ prevention focus.