Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Capital market trading volume: an overview and some preliminary conclusions

This paper suggests an explanation for the heavy trading volumeobserved on the US capital markets, the world's largest. Heterodoxeconomic theory puts much of this volume down to speculation.Mainstream theory tends to support this thesis, either directlyor indirectly, by giving space to the idea that trading activityis for the most part exogenous to the functioning of the capitalmarkets. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the tradingvolumes observed are an endogenous feature of the capital markets,because they are to a great extent determined by the needs ofthe institutional investors who predominate on these markets.This endogeneity of trading is posited in connection with theemergence of a new ‘core–satellite’ paradigmin institutional investment, a development that essentiallymanifests the asset-management industry's transformation froma small industry serving a few wealthy clients to a mass industryserving large sections of the population.     

税制改革和国有商业银行资本充足率的内源性提升

金融部门被认为是现代市场经济的枢纽和命脉,其效率水平会对整个经济的效率水平产生基础性影响。资本充足率是衡量银行抵御风险能力和稳健性的重要指标,我国国有商业银行资本充足率状况不容乐观。税收作为国家主要政策手段,是金融发展的重要制度因素。文章从税制改革角度,探讨提升国有商业银行资本充足率的问题。     

论废除死刑的法律价值

我国的死刑制度历史悠久,改革现行死刑制度,对于我国构建和谐社会具有重要现实意义.我国死刑制度具有局限性,因此,废除死刑,构建合理的刑罚体系是十分必要的.     

Capital Account Liberalisation by China and the Effects on Global FDI and Trade

We model the partial liberalisation of the capital account by China using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Our results indicate that a reduced capital controls on foreign direct investment (FDI) would lead to a significant increase in FDI capital in China and a significant reduction in the cost of capital in China relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, we observe an increase in capital stocks in most regions, which benefits most regions in terms of GDP and GNP. The Chinese economy grows by 3.3% driven by a significant fall in the rental price of capital that, in turn, lowers domestic costs, causes a real depreciation of the exchange rate and thus increased exports relative to other regions. We also observe an across-the-board increase in the saving rate driven by the rise in the price of consumption relative to investment (saving) in all regions.     

The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?

The bulk of evidence on the lack of international risk sharing is based on regressions of idiosyncratic consumption growth on idiosyncratic output growth. This paper argues that the results from such regressions obtained from international data are, however, not directly comparable to those based on regional data: the standard practice of running such regressions on international data fails to account for persistent international differentials in consumer prices, whereas—implicitly—most of the literature based on regional data has accounted for these differences. When risk sharing regressions are set up in conceptually the same way in international and regional data sets, the estimated coefficients are also very similar. To explore this result further, we adapt the variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (Q J Econ 111:1081–1110, 1996) to allow for deviations from purchasing power parity across countries. While quantity (income and credit) flows are the dominant channel of risk sharing among regions, relative consumption and output price (internal terms of trade) fluctuations account for the bulk of the deviation from the complete markets outcome in international data. To the extent that persistent differences in consumer prices are an indication of goods market segmentation, our findings provide empirical evidence for the proposition by Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 2000) that segmented international goods markets rather than asset market incompleteness may account for the (apparent) lack of risk sharing between countries.

资本市场的实验经济学方法论研究

随着金融市场理论研究和实践检验的不断发展,资本市场的许多基础理论受到了极大的挑战,与现有理论相悖的异象不断涌现。新近兴起的实验经济学为人们研究资本市场提供了一条更为有效的途径。本文分析了实验方法在资本市场研究中的利与弊,介绍了部分资本市场实验的设计过程,并应用该方法分析了风险与收益、资本市场的效率、市场泡沫的产生和破灭、CAPM理论,以及交易制度等。文章指出,在资本市场中运用实验方法进行研究,具有可控性、可比性以及可重复性等优点,为我们对于资本市场诸多理论进行检验提供了可能。在资本市场实验的设计中,我们不但需要考虑实验的各种交易制度,还需要考虑到被试人员的选择、交易资产的确定以及市场信息的设计等很多问题,只有对这些问题进行全面地考虑,才能保证实验结果的可信度,进而为我们对于各种金融理论的检验提供可能。     

研发人力资本配置与技术创新——异质教育层次视角

在经济增长结构性减速和经济向高质量转型发展背景下,探讨研发人力资本有效配置对中国经济结构转型发展具有重要现实意义。基于中国2009-2018年省际面板数据,根据教育层次异质性,将研发人力资本细分为本科及以下、硕士与博士3种类型,运用静态和动态面板回归模型,从创新总量与细分创新类型视角分析不同教育层次研发人力资本作用于技术创新的差异化特征。统计分析和实证研究表明,中国地区不同教育层次研发人力资本配置不平衡,本科及以下研发人力资本占据主导地位,而本科及以下研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有一定抑制效应,硕士研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有显著正向作用,博士研发人力资本对地区技术创新没有呈现显著正面效应,且相比于硕士研发人力资本具有更低的创新产出弹性,在科研创新效率方面没有体现出预期的教育优势。研究结果对中国高层次人力资本在技术创新中的优化配置和经济结构转型发展具有积极的借鉴意义。     

风险投资、行业经验与创业企业专利组合策略研究

长期以来,对于风险投资能否促进以及如何促进创业企业创新能力在学术界和实践界存在广泛争议,揭示风险投资对创业企业专利组合策略的影响是解决这一问题的关键,但相关研究比较薄弱。以2009-2014年中小板和创业板上市创业企业为样本,利用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）建立实验组和对照组,采用发明专利技术范围和专利重点衡量专利组合策略,实证检验风险投资对创业企业专利组合策略的影响,并进一步检验风险投资是否通过行业经验发挥作用。结果表明,风险投资能拓宽创业企业的专利技术范围,帮助创业企业形成专利重点,风险投资行业经验是影响创业企业专利技术范围的重要因素,但其并未对专利重点发挥作用。研究结论对优化我国创业企业专利战略具有重要实践意义。     

资本市场变迁及运行效率相关研究评析

资本市场变迁及运行效率是中外学者研究的重点，形成了许多理论流派，其中信息空间理论为资本市场制度变迁提供了新的分析框架。同时，中国资本市场正处在发展建设之中，亟需有效的理论指导其发展。然而，中国资本市场的不完备性和特殊性导致诸多理论的应用存在局限性。而信息是各理论流派研究的核心，只是角度和侧重点不同，故信息空间理论可为研究资本市场变迁和制度选择提供新的研究思路。