The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households

The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93.
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3.     

Bank Monitoring and Environmental Risk

Abstract:  Loan announcement effects for 152 Canadian companies are examined to investigate the efficiency of monitoring by banks facing lender environmental liability. Market reaction to the announcement of bank debt to 'environmental' firms is more positive and significant than for 'non-environmental' firms and, for firms in industries with a higher likelihood of experiencing spill events, is more positive and significant, reinforcing earlier results that establish a relationship between specific loan/borrower characteristics and announcement period excess returns and providing further evidence on the 'uniqueness' of bank loans by demonstrating the superior ability of banks to monitor corporate borrowers exposed to environmental liability.     

The effects of transition on the distribution of income in China

Using two large samples for 1988 and 1995 we decompose the Gini coefficient of household income according to type of income with the purpose of analyzing reasons for the rapid increase of inequality. The results show that the change in relative size of money income and its changed profile are found to be the major processes behind the rapid increase of income inequality in rural China. Changes in housing allocation and an increased number of retirees in combination with higher benefits have made inequality increase in urban China and in China as a whole. JEL classification: D31, P27.     

Foreign debt and economic growth

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub‐samples of various regions. Cross‐sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American sub‐samples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The sub‐sample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. JEL classification: F34, H6, O23.     

LABOUR SUPPLY ESTIMATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

Abstract. Economists devote considerable energies towards refining their econometric techniques to overcome difficulties connected with conducting empirical research. Despite advances in technique. it is not clear whether further refinement in this direction is worthwhile for policy purposes. It may be that no further amount of statistical adjustment of inadequate data will increase understanding, and that better data is simply necessary to add to our knowledge. But rarely is sufficient credit paid to new forms of data. In short, econometric technique is emphasized to the neglect of data innovation, as if new data were merely lying about waiting for an ingenious suggestion for use. This paper surveys advances of the last twenty five years in estimating labour supply for policy purposes with a view towards appreciating the relative contribution of both improvements in econometric technique as well as developments of new data.
After briefly detailing the key parameters which economists have sought to estimate, we describe the early 'first generation' research (circa 1970), which is plagued by problems of unobservable variables, measurement errors, truncation and selectivity bias, and non linear budget constraints. 'Second generation' research constitute attempts to resolve one or more of these difficulties, and the respective contribution of econometric technique and new data is acknowledged and assessed, including the contribution of data generated by large scale social experiments in which participants are randomly assigned to different guaranteed income plans and their labour supply behaviour measured.     

油(气)田储量技术经济综合评价理论与方法研究

本文从界定油(气)田(藏)储量技术经济综合评价的概念入手,阐述了综合评价的必要性和当前存在的问题;分析了油(气)勘探开发的特点,明确了综合评价在技术经济评价中的重要作用;针对综合评价要求实现定量评价指标与定性描述的有机结合,文章列举了当前综合评价普遍存在的问题为:指标选取不全面、指标权重的确定不够客观,从而形成综合评价的结果的简单无力,不足以作为决策的有力依据等;据此,文章提出构造综合评价指标体系,用层次分析法(AHP 法)确定指标权重的方法.再者,由于油(气)开发决策是模糊决策,因而本文运用模糊集合理论建立油(气)田(藏)储量技术经济综合评价的多层次、多算子二型模糊数学综合评价模型,并通过实例证明该方法的计算方便可靠,符合客观实际。     

China''''s Cooperative Exploration of Oil and Gas and Its Taxation System

China' s foreign-oriented oil taxation system has, from the beginning, been based upon the positive experiences of other oil-producing countries and has incorporated common international practices. The system has been perfected over decades. It of fers more incentives than other oil-producing countries in the following four aspects: (1) Income tax has a "wide tax base and low tax rate"; (2) VAT levies a low tax rate on ma-     

中国邮政储蓄银行中间业务特色化发展战略的设想——以安徽分行为例

自成立之日起,中国邮政储蓄银行依托强大的邮政网络,励精图治,其中间业务迅速发展,呈现出品种丰富、效用增强、规模扩大的趋势。该行在中国作为＂草根银行＂,的确为区域经济的发展做出了应有的贡献,但和金融同业相比,其中间业务发展仍凸显产品研发滞后、业务收益不高、操作风险尚存等问题。本文以邮政储蓄银行安徽分行为例,结合其中间业务发展现状的分析,对邮政储蓄银行特色化发展战略进行设想,提出要通过审时度势、东学西渐、内外联动和左右开弓的系列措施助力其中间业务发展。