How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?

Some global catastrophes (such as nuclear wars, pandemics, or an asteroid collision) might destroy civilization. Some propose building well-stocked shelters constantly staffed with people trained to rebuild civilization in such cases. These “refuges” would have an unimpressive expected cost per life saved, but could conceivably have an impressive expected cost per future generation allowed to exist. From some ethical perspectives that highly value future generations, building refuges may therefore seem like a promising idea. However, several factors significantly dilute the potential impact of refuges, even if the proposed catastrophes occur. Government/private disaster shelters, people working on submarines, and isolated peoples who prefer to be left alone serve these purposes to some extent already. Many proposed catastrophes do too much/too little damage for refuges to help, affect the environment in ways that make refuges largely irrelevant, or otherwise give relatively limited advantages to the people in refuges. In global food crises or social collapse scenarios, refuges would add little to aggregate stocks of population, resources, food, and relevant skills; but they may add something unique in terms of isolation and coordination. These potential benefits of refuges seem the most promising, and may be worthy of further analysis.     

城市灾害应急预案基本要素探讨

目前,城市灾害管理正在逐渐受到各级政府的重视,为了有效地减轻城市灾害的损失,一些大中城市开始制定灾害应急预案.然而,在应该制定什么样的城市应急预案才能真正在救灾抢险中发挥最大作用等方面仍缺少必要的论证和探讨.文章从政府灾害应急救灾的基本程序入手,对城市灾害应急预案的基本要素进行了探讨,提出了城市灾害预测评价和防灾规划是制定城市灾害应急预案的基础,而灾害应急指挥系统、灾害情报体系、救灾抢险体系、应急医疗体系、应急避难体系和交通管理体系六大主要因素构成了城市灾害应急预案的基本要素.     

适应型城市:将适应气候变化与气候风险管理纳入城市规划

气候变化对城市规划提出新的要求,即:通过人口、土地等资源的时空配置,最大限度地减小城市面临的潜在气候风险。本文从"城市发展如何考虑气候变化与风险管理需求"这一核心问题出发,探讨了气候风险、气候风险管理及适应型城市的概念和内容,指出在中国城市化提升阶段,城市发展迫切需要加强气候风险管理的意识和能力。基于国外城市应对气候变化风险的实践与经验,提出将适应与气候风险管理纳入城市规划,提出构建适应型城市的几个要点。     

RESPONDING TO DISRUPTIONS IN THE SUPPLY NETWORK‐FROM DORMANT TO ACTION

Managing risks in supply networks is a complex task; more so in those supply networks where the core competence lies in dealing with natural disasters, complex emergencies, and large‐scale attacks—namely those of humanitarian, and military organizations where the price of failure can be counted in terms of the loss of life rather than, simply, reduced profits. This conceptual article examines the capabilities of these supply networks to manage such disruptions, based on their resource configuration in a dormant preparation state. The article concludes by presenting how different types of supply networks can manage large‐scale disruptions.     

Persistent myths about emergency seed aid

Seed interventions are the major agricultural response during emergency and recovery phases of humanitarian relief. They are implemented by diverse agencies, and widely promoted: for instance the FAO alone managed 400 such projects between 2003 and 2005. However, seed aid suffers from a lack of critical attention, perpetuating widespread myths among practitioners, policymakers, and the larger humanitarian community. This paper challenges five predominant myths about seed aid: (1) seed aid is needed whenever food aid is; (2) seed aid can do no harm; (3) disasters wipe out seed systems; (4) effective implementation is a straightforward logistical exercise, and; (5) improved seed is the best form of aid. These myths are juxtaposed with recent empirical work across a range of countries, particularly in Eastern and Southern Africa. The perpetuation of such myths highlights a serious absence of scrutiny of emergency seed aid, and helps explain why such aid is repeated year after year in many sites, with little apparent positive effect. The paper argues that the invisibility of seed aid is a major cause for the lack of oversight and concludes that donors and farmer beneficiaries must become centrally involved in seed aid governance.     

Chaos, crises and disasters: a strategic approach to crisis management in the tourism industry

This paper outlines and discusses a strategic and holistic approach to crisis management for the tourism industry. It notes the growing importance of crisis and disaster management for the tourism industry before exploring the definitions and nature of crises and disasters. The paper then proposes a strategic approach to their management from proactive pre-crisis planning through strategic implementation and finally evaluation and feedback. A discussion of crisis and disaster management literature and studies conducted in the tourism field are also introduced. It notes that although crises and disasters cannot be stopped their impacts can be limited by both public and private sector managers. The paper concludes that the understanding and subsequent management of such incidents can be vastly improved through the extension and application of crisis and disaster management theory and concepts from other disciplines, coupled with the development of specific tourism crisis management research and frameworks.     

Organizing for disaster: Lessons from the military

Recent global events have highlighted the need for disaster planning by leaders in all types of organizations, civilian and military included. This article illustrates, from both academic and personal viewpoints, lessons learned during relief operations for the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. Having participated in this effort, I detail guidance for designing resilient and robust organizational structures that can deal with the uncertainties of a disaster environment. For example, organizations frequently form temporary command centers to improve information flow in a crisis. Consequently, managers are advised to create temporary organizational structures with a common cognitive map to improve sense-making for employees during turbulent times. Other lessons presented include the establishment of a nuanced priority system for assessing potential courses of action, and the need to eliminate bureaucratic barriers to action to improve the speed of response when lives are at stake. This article concludes by pointing out that proper organizational structures need to be considered prior to disaster in order for organizations to be effective and efficient during the course of a mitigation effort.     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国粮食安全的影响分析及稳定产量的建议

稳定粮食安全根基是应对各类黑天鹅、灰犀牛事件的有力保障。疫情期间,充足的粮食供给再次发挥了安天下、稳民心的作用。从目前调查的情况来看,疫情对粮食生产经营的影响是暂时的、局部的、有限的,疫情持续也带来农资价格上涨、物资到位迟缓等问题。但种粮效益低、农业气象偏差、传统病虫害与输入性虫害叠加、国际经贸形势日趋复杂等挑战交织,是确保全年粮食产量、供应稳定的主要挑战。要高度重视抗疫战线拉长带来的负面影响,积极疏通农资供应渠道、有序组织返田返工,更要稳住政策支持,完善设施装备配套,强化技术支撑,做好防灾减灾。     

灾害经济学的产生、特点与价值

自上世纪50年代开始灾害经济的讨论以来,灾害经济学越来越影响国家决策,从而,有关灾害经济学的学科特点及其价值的研究也越来越引起人们的重视。     

Return of the inoperability

There has been unrest in the research community investigating the inoperability of an economic system under disaster situations. The inoperability input–output model (IIM), which is very popular in the risk management field, has become a center of argument, particularly from the input–output researchers, that IIM is a straightforward application of the standard Leontief input–output model. This paper revisits the concept of inoperability, rather than IIM, and proposes its new role in disaster impact analysis using a conventional tool, i.e. the RAS method, for illustrating how the inoperability of an economic system in the aftermath of disaster can be evaluated. The proposed framework is employed to examine the inoperability of industries resulting from the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The findings of the analysis reveal the usefulness of inoperability concept that can even incorporate resilience (gained operability) using the proposed framework of this paper.