Forecasting Stock Index Futures Price Volatility: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock index futures volatility. The forecasting models that are employed range from naïve models to the relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock index futures volatility, the autoregressive model ranks first using the RMSE and MAPE criteria. We also examine three nonlinear models. These models are GARCH-M, EGARCH, and ESTAR. We find that nonlinear GARCH models dominate linear models utilizing the RMSE and the MAPE error statistics and EGARCH appears to be the best model for forecasting stock index futures price volatility.     

Are Securitizations in Substance Sales or Secured Borrowings? Capital‐Market Evidence*

Two standard‐setting approaches have emerged globally to guide the choice of accounting for securitizations: the control and components approach (SFAS No. 125 and SFAS No. 140) and the risks and rewards transfer approach (IAS No. 39). A lack of consensus about derecognition accounting is a major impediment to achieving convergence in global standards that must be resolved. Thus, both SFAS No. 140 and IAS No. 39 will be reexamined, and evidence pertinent to the debate is timely and important. In this study, we present evidence consistent with the view of credit‐rating analysts, who view many securitizations as, in substance, secured borrowings. Specifically, for a sample of originators applying sale accounting guidance in SFAS No. 125 / 140 during the period 1997‐2003, we show that off‐balance‐sheet debt related to securitizations has, on average, the same risk‐relevance for explaining market measures of risk (that is, CAPM beta) as on‐balance‐sheet debt. We also find that, in a returns and earnings association framework, the pricing multiple on securitization gains declines as the amount of off‐balance‐sheet debt increases, implying that investors take off‐balance‐sheet debt into account when assessing the valuation‐relevance of such gains. For those who advocate the control and components approach to securitization accounting, our results suggest that, at least for frequent securitizers, the put option arising from implicit recourse is a “missing piece” that is not currently accounted for when calculating securitization gains. Our results challenge the extant measurement standards in SFAS No. 140.     

金融发展和经济增长：文献述评

20世纪90年代以来，有关金融发展和经济增长问题的研究成为经济学领域一个热点，相关文献汗牛充栋。本文就金融发展和经济增长的理论研究和实证研究进行系统地分析和综述。     

金融公司行政托管法律制度的完善——从公司控制权的角度分析

行政托管是我国较有特色的一项处置高风险金融公司的制度,但目前该项制度存在法律依据不足、法律关系不明、法律责任不到位等弊端,从公司控制权的角度看托管人的权责应当匹配,建议将行政托管规定为一种行政处罚措施,分重组式托管与清算式托管进行不同规定,尤其要注意完善托管人义务与责任的相关法律规定,以保障金融市场的稳定与金融消费者的合法权益。     

中国金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态研究

为了揭示中国金融体系与宏观经济运行的系列结构性变化及其关联动态,文章分别基于货币流动性宽松程度、剩余收益模型以及银行资产负债表,对中国货币市场、股票市场与银行体系的风险进行了测度和评估;并在分析上述三个金融子市场风险变动规律及其传递机制的基础上,运用时变参数向量自回归模型实证检验了各金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态。研究发现:在金融危机爆发前后,不同金融市场风险之间的传递关系发生了重要转变,并且与宏观经济景气变动之间的交互影响也存在显著的阶段性差异,呈现出"良性循环"与"恶性螺旋"的非对称性切换。这些研究为中国新时期积极转变宏观经济调控政策决策机制、创新宏观经济调控与金融监管模式,实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定提供了有益的经验依据与政策启示。     

投资者法律保护与财务报告质量

企业财务报告的质量取决于资本市场上会计信息需求方和供给方之间的博弈,投资者法律保护通过影响资本市场的发展,进而影响需求方和供给方之间的力量对比,使作为会计信息载体的财务报告呈现出不同的质量特征。     

MICRO AND SMALL ENTERPRISE GROWTH IN TURKEY: UNDER THE SHADOW OF FINANCIAL CRISIS

The present study analyzes the impacts of selected factors on the growth of micro and small enterprises (MSE) in Turkey. Using unique national field survey data on urban MSE that engage 1–49 persons, we present the determinants of MSE growth for the period between the start‐up of enterprises and the year 2000. We evaluate the impact of the financial crisis experienced in Turkey in 2001 on MSE. Detrimental effects of the crisis on MSE are clearly detected in our estimations. Some of the factors contributing to the growth of MSE lose their influence almost immediately during the crisis; indeed, the impact of some factors is reversed. Overall results reveal that there is much scope to design supportive policies for MSE to enable them to withstand the negative impacts of future crises, especially in emerging economies.     

资本市场的实验经济学方法论研究

随着金融市场理论研究和实践检验的不断发展,资本市场的许多基础理论受到了极大的挑战,与现有理论相悖的异象不断涌现。新近兴起的实验经济学为人们研究资本市场提供了一条更为有效的途径。本文分析了实验方法在资本市场研究中的利与弊,介绍了部分资本市场实验的设计过程,并应用该方法分析了风险与收益、资本市场的效率、市场泡沫的产生和破灭、CAPM理论,以及交易制度等。文章指出,在资本市场中运用实验方法进行研究,具有可控性、可比性以及可重复性等优点,为我们对于资本市场诸多理论进行检验提供了可能。在资本市场实验的设计中,我们不但需要考虑实验的各种交易制度,还需要考虑到被试人员的选择、交易资产的确定以及市场信息的设计等很多问题,只有对这些问题进行全面地考虑,才能保证实验结果的可信度,进而为我们对于各种金融理论的检验提供可能。     

Financial capital and banks in Hilferding and Sraffa: lessons for today

Rudolf Hilferding’s Das Finanzkapital dealt with the increasing role of finance in the German economy and the resulting structural transformations. The young Sraffa shared with Hilferding an interest on the role played by the banks in the transformation of capitalism. The relationship among banking and industrial capital implied different business models of the German and UK banks and determined the resulting domination of financial capital on the economy. We deepen the methodological and practical similarities and differences of the two scholars, discussing the aspects that are still relevant today to understand financialisation and instability of capitalism.     

The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth

This paper explores the finance–growth nexus in 14 countries from Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe (CESEE) over the 1995–2015 period. It investigates whether including two ‘non-standard’ variables, i.e. a credit cycle dummy and foreign bank relevance, deepens our understanding of the role of a typical financial determinant of economic growth, i.e. bank credit. We find evidence of a negative impact of bank credit on economic growth and the significance of cyclical fluctuations of bank credit. In contrast, a higher market share of loans granted by foreign-owned banks in a cyclical upswing and stock market capitalisation are found to have a proactive effect on growth.