通货膨胀的各种成因及其在我国的实证分析

本文不仅总结了当前主要的实证研究文献提出的我国通货膨胀的种种成因,而且对每种原因给予了比较分析和新的实证分析,并在此基础上尝试进行了综合分析,以得出一些有益的结论。     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

网络教育浅谈

本通过对我国教育现状的分析和对网络教育特点的阐析，提出网络教育对现行教育体制的挑战，对我国高等教育由精英教育转向全民教育的深远影响，以及存在的差距和未来发展趋势。     

通用ATS实现技术研究

我国武器装备通用ATS(自动测试系统)经历了从引进、仿制到自行研制的过程，但是目前通用ATS总的局面是通用ATS不通用，这种局面主要是由于国内对通用ATS实现技术缺乏统一认识造成的。基于此，本文研究了与开发通用ATS密切相关的标准／规范、硬件配置技术、接口技术、集成测试软件开发环境技术。本文的研究结果适用于所有开发通用ATS的项目。     

应该用哪一个模型来描述中国货币市场利率的动态变化

本文论证了双曲模型是描述中国货币市场利率动态变化的最佳单因子利率模型。由极大似然估计可以得到单因子利率模型的边际密度函数。双曲模型的边际密度和非参数估计得到的边际密度函数拟合较好，其表现远远优于几个常见的利率模型（CIR、CKLS和AG模型）。与较一般的Ait-Sahalia模型相比差别很小，但参数形式得到简化，似然比检验也支持这一点。双曲模型在刻画利率的均值回复特征方面还克服了AG模型的不足。     

利率风险与债务期限结构的正反馈效应分析

本文在总结以前学者有关债务期限结构分析的基础上,提出了债务期限结构与利率波动之间可能存在正反馈机制。通过对经筛选的我国上市企业面板数据的实证分析,发现银行间同业拆借利率可以较好地反映企业债务期限结构的变化。而分行业的实证分析则表明,利率波动加剧会使绝大多数行业的短期债务比例降低,呈现显著负相关关系。但现阶段我国的利率形成受企业债务期限结构变化的影响不明显,长短期的面板Granger因果检验无法通过。最后,本文从利率风险及利率期限结构的角度对我国上市公司特殊的债务结构给出了新的解释。     

区域经济学主流化的新格局:迈向新综合的空间一般均衡理论

区域经济学的研究从1990年后，日趋活跃、争论纷呈，在某种意义上讲，发生了很大的转向。即由克鲁格曼发轫的新经济地理把该领域的某些问题带向经济学主流的一般均衡分析框架下来讨论，他们更加宏伟的蓝图是要实现具有新综合特征的空间一般均衡理论，为区域经济学的研究注入了新的活力。该文简述了这些新理论的基本模型、主要特征和模型的扩展及对经济体系空间特性研究的主要贡献，以及由之而引起的各方面的争论和共识。     

规范方法与实证方法整合的现代结构

现代西方经济学理论认为经济学主要是一门实证社会科学，实证方法应该是经济学方法论的核心，甚至是整个经济理论的基础所.在但是一直以来作为与实证方法相对应的规范方法在经济学研究中都未得到应有的肯定与重视。因此为了肃清存在于经济学研究中方法论上的错误认识，更加具体深入的理解经济学方法中的规范方法与实证方法，本将从二的理论界定、发展历史回顾及其整合的基点三个方面来作进一步的探讨。     

General equilibrium impact of an energy-saving policy in the public sector

We analyse a disregarded environmental policy instrument: a switch in government expenditure away from energy (or other natural resources) and toward a composite good which includes energy-saving expenditure. We first develop two variants of an analytical general equilibrium model. A composite good is produced with constant returns to scale, and energy is imported or produced domestically with diminishing returns, yielding a differential rent to its owners. The government purchases energy and composite goods from private firms. Such a policy unambiguously increases employment. It also raises private consumption and welfare under two conditions: (i) it is not too costly and (ii) the initial share of the resource is smaller in public spending than in private consumption, or the difference is small enough. We then run numerically a model featuring both importation and domestic production of energy (oil, gas and electricity), for the OECD as a whole. Simulations show that employment, welfare and private consumption rise. We provide magnitudes for different parameter values. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, International Society for Ecological Economics World Congress, CIRED seminar and EUREQua environmental economics seminar. We especially thank Michèle Sadoun and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy. Received June 7, 2001; revised version: January 7, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar and Thomas DiCiccio for helpful discussion and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions.