The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

独立董事制度实施效果分析——基于上市公司关联交易的证据

本文借助独立董事在监管大股东与上市公司之间的关联交易来研究独立董事制度实施的效果。我们的实证结果表明,我国独立董事在关联交易方面是起到了积极的作用。也就是说独立董事的实施起到了应有的效果。     

论创意产业成长的生态环境

创意产业的兴起是我国经济转型的一种必然选择。处于成长期的创意产业,存在产业链欠完整、资金制约突出、知识产权缺乏有效保护、抗风险水平低等问题。改善我国创意产业成长的生态环境,需要经营者提升自身素质,也需要行业组织在组织、协调、服务中为其排忧解难,需要政府在建立产业链、加强金融支持、健全法律法规、改善教育等方面,提供更多的政策和管理扶持。     

贯彻科学发展观 提高独立学院党建工作

由于学校自身发展和培养合格人才的需要,加剧了独立学院党建工作的紧迫性。目前独立学院党建工作的问题表现为党组织职责不清、党建工作机制不顺畅等,因此独立学院党组织必须要以科学发展观为指导,统一思想,不断探索和完善党建工作机制,加强广大党员的教育管理。     

论我国实施独立董事制度的主要障碍及相关建议

独立董事制度在公司治理中发挥着极其重要的作用,然而,它的具体实施存在着诸多障碍。首先,必须对法律、证券监管机构制定的行政法规等进行必要的修改,构建出合理的立法体系。其次,必须尽快完善对该制度作用发挥有较大影响的相关制度,使独立董事制度与其它公司机关及法律制度较好地协调起来,共同改善上市公司的治理。     

从以专家为主导到以农民为主导的实地研究

参与式理念已经成功地应用于许多农业发展项目,在农业研究项目中我们尝试应用以农民为主导的实地研究方法。在外来者的参与下,由农民讨论和制定研究计划,由农民实施和管理研究项目。实践证明,以农民为主导的实地研究,完全符合当地的自然和社会条件,产生了良好的社会经济效益。     

独立学院非英语专业学生英语自主学习能力的培养

根据《大学英语课程教学要求》,很多高校都在实施基于计算机和课堂的英语教学模式,将课堂教学与学生的自主学习结合起来。在传统的教学中,学生对于教师的依赖很大。因此学生自主学习能力的培养需要很长一段时间,尤其是在独立学院。自主学习首先要想学,然后才能学习如何来学。因此自主学习能力的培养需要先培养学生自主学习的愿望,然后再培养其自主学习的能力。独立学院侧重于应用型人才的培养,因此在自主学习能力培养的过程中,要因人制宜,结合其专业、未来择业、个人兴趣爱好、学习特点制定不同的计划,进行有侧重的培养,以最大程度的发挥学生的特长,满足未来工作的需要。     

Effects on the “self-organization- satisfaction” relationship of changes in the economic context

Noting increasingly independent traveling by tourists, as well as changes on the tourist activity worldwide due to the 2008 economic crisis, this study analyzes the relationships between an economic crisis, tourist’s self-organization in trip planning, and tourist’s trip satisfaction. Data from a panel (2006–2011) on how residents in Spain complete their accommodation and transport bookings are used, including data on their trip satisfaction. The study identifies a negative relationship between the 2008 economic crisis and trip satisfaction, a positive relationship between self-organization and satisfaction, as well as positive moderating effects of the crisis on the relationship between self-organization and satisfaction.     

证券交易信息系统与交易运行模式辨析

首先对证券交易信息系统的特性进行了阐述,介绍了证券公司交易系统的主要模式。现行的证券交易系统主要分为两类:以单营业部为基础的独立式交易系统和以中心营业部为基础的集中式交易系统。两种不同特性的交易系统又决定了不同的证券交易运行模式,文章的重点在于对不同的交易模式进行对比分析,并结合实际运行情况,找出能适应证券公司发展的、行之有效的交易模式。最终的结论是集中式交易模式是适应市场发展和公司经营的正确选择。     

Mixture of MLP-experts for trend forecasting of time series: A case study of the Tehran stock exchange

A new method for forecasting the trend of time series, based on mixture of MLP experts, is presented. In this paper, three neural network combining methods and an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) are applied to trend forecasting in the Tehran stock exchange. There are two experiments in this study. In experiment I, the time series data are the Kharg petrochemical company’s daily closing prices on the Tehran stock exchange. In this case study, which considers different schemes for forecasting the trend of the time series, the recognition rates are 75.97%, 77.13% and 81.64% for stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS, respectively. Using the mixture of MLP experts (ME) scheme, the recognition rate is strongly increased to 86.35%. A gain and loss analysis is also used, showing the relative forecasting success of the ME method with and without rejection criteria, compared to a simple buy and hold approach. In experiment II, the time series data are the daily closing prices of 37 companies on the Tehran stock exchange. This experiment is conducted to verify the results of experiment I and to show the efficiency of the ME method compared to stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS.