Why is credit-to-GDP a good measure for setting countercyclical capital buffers?

We examine banks’ loan losses in Europe in 1982–2012 using a nonlinear three-factor model that takes into account output growth, real interest rate, and the ratio of private credit to GDP relative to its trend (i.e., “excessive indebtedness”). We find that a drop in output has an intensified impact on loan losses if the private sector is excessively indebted. Because increased bank credit risk should be matched with higher bank capital, the result motivates the Basel III's countercyclical capital buffers as a function of private indebtedness relative to its trend. The result also helps to explain differences in the amount of loan losses in different recessions across time and across countries. The model also indicates that low interest rates during the recent recession have clearly mitigated loan losses.     

Understanding the impact of COVID-19 intervention policies on the hospitality labor market

Using new high-frequency data that covers a representative sample of small businesses in the United States, this study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting state policies on the hospitality industry. First, business closure policies are associated with a 20–30% reduction of non-salaried workers in the food/drink and leisure/entertainment sectors during March-April of 2020. Second, business reopening policies play a statistically significant role in slowly reviving the labor market. Third, considerable differences exist in the impact of policies on the labor market by state. Fourth, the rise of new COVID-19 cases on a daily basis is associated with the continued deterioration of the labor market. Lastly, managerial, practical, and economic implications are described.     

论政府对现代物流发展的干预

在指出我国现代物流发展中存在政府职能缺失问题的基础上,结合西方国家政府干预现代物流发展的经验,提出了我国现代物流的发展在建立中国特色的物流管理体制;制定现代物流总体发展规划;营造有利于物流业发展的环境;发挥物流协会等中介组织的作用;推动我国物流业的信息化和标准化等方面需要政府适度有效的干预。     

The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, considerable attention has been paid to the accumulation of non-performing loans in the balance sheet of European banks and to its potential negative effects on bank lending to the real economy. Using a dataset composed of bank-specific information and country aggregates, we study the impact of the stock and the flow of non-performing loans on the lending activities of a sample of 75 European banks between 2014 and 2018. In general, higher rates of non-performing loans, together with other variables, are associated with lower growth rates of performing loans. This effect persists across several econometric specifications and is more significant for those banks exhibiting lower growth rates of performing loans. Similarly, our econometric analysis suggests that banks with higher decreases in their rate of non-performing loans tend to lend more to the real economy, an effect which is particularly intense at the right tail of the distribution. The findings of our paper can be useful for policymakers when addressing the resolution of non-performing loans in banks.     

国企锦标赛激励效应与制约因素研究

本文尝试从锦标赛的角度为国企竞争理论提供信息经济学模型解释和实证支持。为了达到这一目的,本文从政府干预和共同代理的角度对经典的锦标赛模型进行细化和拓展,以揭示出国企锦标赛激励效应与制约因素,并收集2451家地方国有上市公司披露的薪酬差距数据对理论模型进行实证检验。理论模型表明,薪酬差距的扩大和国企经营者赢得经济锦标赛激励的强化会增加国企经营者的努力水平,因而有利于公司绩效的提升。不过,国企经营者赢得经济锦标赛的激励却受到政府行政干预和共同代理问题的制约。实证结果表明,我国地方国有上市公司薪酬差距与公司绩效显著正相关,而与地方政府行政干预和共同代理问题的严重程度显著负相关,从而支持了理论模型。     

公允价值变动损益与盈余质量相关性的实证研究

对2007年沪深A股上市公司公允价值变动损益与盈余质量的相关性的实证研究表明,公允价值变动损益的计算符合会计准则的规定;公允价值变动损益在总体上提高了盈余质量,可以给投资者提供及时的盈余信息。     

论共产党员的“吃亏观”

以辩证唯物主义世界观可以辨别出老实人与不老实人的特征。共产党员要正确对待吃亏还是占便宜。党和人民始终信任不怕吃亏的老实人。共产党员要牢记宗旨,无私奉献,当老实人、说老实话、做老实事。     

新会计准则下我国上市公司债务重组动因研究——基于A股上市公司2007年数据

在我国2007年实施新的《企业会计准则——债务重组》的背景下,结合盈余管理的理论,对我国A股上市公司债务重组动因进行的实证分析发现,财务状况改善、扭亏对上市公司债务重组幅度有显著影响,平滑利润对上市公司债务重组幅度影响不显著。     

水土保持研究综述

水土流失严重地威胁着人类的生存与发展,已引起全世界的关注。本文简要地介绍了水土流失及水土保持的概况,对发达国家和发展中国家的水土保持研究的基本情况、研究方向和重要成果进行了详细的阐述,并对今后我国水土保持的研究方向,提出了自己的见解。