Why are Small Firms Different? Managers’ Views

Do incentives differ between large and small organizations? Results from a representative survey of compensation managers are used to shed light on the issues. I find that (i) small establishments rely less on pecuniary incentives, and have a significantly more hostile attitude towards incentive schemes based on competition and relative rewards; (ii) large units are more vulnerable to mechanisms of efficiency wages, effects that remain even after controlling for differences in monitoring ability; (iii) large units are more prone to indicate that negative reciprocity is important, and that their employees care about relative pay. I argue that these findings fit with behavioral stories of incentives and motivation, in particular those stressing group interaction effects, inequity aversion and gift exchange.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

社会养老保险新政的运行效果分析——基于沈阳市国有大型企业的调查

利用调查数据重点考察了社会养老保险新政的实际运行效果,指出了目前存在职工参保意愿不强烈、政策有效性尚不明显、对制度长期建设缺乏信心等现实问题,以期对养老保险制度的改革完善提供理论和政策依据。     

Most-Favored Treatment Provisions as Nondiscrimination Guarantees

A firm employs suppliers who make specific investments. Because output demand is uncertain and the cost of enumerating contingencies high, the firm retains some unilateral control over the input quantities it purchases. To allay suppliers’ concerns over potential opportunism the firm must commit not to pit them against one another ex post by threatening to buy less from those who refuse to discount their prices. By extending most-favored treatment guarantees the firm commits not to discriminate. In some circumstances this generates efficient and opportunism-free outcomes. In others it is less effective but may remain attractive relative to other options. Evidence from field market contracts for natural gas corroborates this nondiscrimination hypothesis.     

Influence analysis for Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models based on the EM algorithm

For Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models, it is very complicated to obtain the influence measures based on the traditional method, because the associated likelihood function involves intractable expressions, such as the modified Bessel function. In this paper, the EM algorithm is employed as a basis to derive diagnostic measures for the models by treating them as a mixed Poisson regression with the weights from the inverse Gaussian distributions. Several diagnostic measures are obtained in both case-deletion model and local influence analysis, based on the conditional expectation of the complete-data log-likelihood function in the EM algorithm. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

中国股票市场非线性特征检验分析

本文突破了传统资本市场理论研究的线性框架,视股票市场为一非线性系统,运用R/S、BDS等非线性方法对沪深股票市场进行实证研究,得出了沪深两市的非线性特征,并探讨了这些实证结果对股票市场研究的理论与实践意义。     

地方政府公共投资与区域经济增长的差异性分析

文章采用全国31个省、自治区和直辖市1995~2008年的面板数据,构建动态面板数据模型,考察了地方政府公共投资对区域经济增长的影响。研究表明,1995年以来我国地方政府公共投资总体上推动了区域经济增长,但不同公共投资项目的拉动效应在区域间存在着较大差异。     

中国B股市场羊群效应检验

金融市场微观结构理论和行为金融学的兴起引起了人们对证券市场羊群效应的广泛关注。在收集中国深市和沪市B股数据的基础上,采用个股横截面收益率的绝对偏离度指标检验B股市场的羊群效应。结果发现,和A股市场一样,B股同样存在显著的羊群效应,而且深市B股羊群效应强于沪市B股。如果以2001年2月19日B股向国内个人投资者开放作为分界点,开放后的羊群效应比开放前更显著。     

农村公共产品多元合作供给效应实证研究

农村公共产品的多元合作供给有利于改善供给绩效。在理论研究的基础上,根据结构方程模型的相关原理构建了农村公共产品多元合作供给与供给绩效关系的假设模型。通过调查问卷的发放、分析和数据处理,获得了农村公共产品多元合作供给与供给绩效关系的相关数据。运用结构方程模型的研究方法,对假设模型进行了检验。结果表明:农村公共产品多元合作供给的各影响因素与供给绩效有显著的正相关关系,农村公共产品的多元合作供给对供给绩效有积极的正向影响作用。     

库区公路K243滑坡形成机制及治理措施

依托澜沧江黄登水电站库区沿江公路K243滑坡工程实例,对新生工程滑坡和古滑坡的成因机制、变形破坏模式及治理措施进行研究,分析滑坡多工况组合条件下的稳定状态和剩余下滑力;运用GEO5软件建立滑坡模型,分析抗滑桩内力及位移变化,以及不同治理施工过程中的滑坡稳定性变化规律。研究结果表明：K243滑坡采用双排刚架抗滑桩、锚索桩板墙、填土反压及截排水等措施进行治理,效果显著;新生工程滑坡后排桩剪力和弯矩均大于前排桩,后排桩桩顶位移大于前排桩,而古滑坡前排桩的剪力及位移均大于后排桩;新生工程滑坡在不同施工过程中的稳定系数提高比例约为古滑坡的一倍。实践证明,K243滑坡治理是成功的,可为库区公路滑坡分析与治理提供参考。