Lottery mindset,mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the MAX effect regarding lottery mindset in the Chinese stock market. The MAX effect significantly affects stock returns through quintile portfolio and cross-sectional regression analyses. The most-overpriced stock groups, as categorized by mispricing index, show more support for the MAX effect. However, the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) effect continues regardless of consideration for the MAX effect, indicating that the MAX effect is not a source of the IVOL effect. Our results suggest that the MAX effect, which is highly relevant for overpriced stocks, might have information for determining stock price, and appears to be independent from information of the IVOL effect in the Chinese stock market.     

Sensitivity to investor sentiment and stock performance of open market share repurchases

This paper finds that stocks of repurchasers with high sensitivity to investor sentiment are more likely to be mispriced. Thus, such repurchases are followed by superior post-buyback stock performance. This abnormal return associated with sensitivity to sentiment cannot be explained by other undervaluation factors: book-to-market or prior return effects. My results are robust with factor model analysis and controls for contamination effects. I conclude that this sentiment-driven undervaluation may result from the difficulty to value and/or limits to arbitrage rather than investor overreaction.     

投资者情绪与中国上市公司实际投资

本文运用行为公司金融理论,针对中国股票市场特殊的市场环境、制度背景提出可检验假设,验证由投资者情绪导致的股票错误定价对我国上市公司实际投资的影响.通过划分样本区间在市场反转的框架下分析主导机制和迎合机制的作用,运用PVAR模型研究主动融资机制的作用,得出如下主要结论:(1)在中国股票市场反转时期迎合机制起着主导作用;(2)上市公司更多的出于操纵的目的迎合投资者强烈的情绪进行实际投资,对最大化流通股股东短期收益考虑的并不多;(3)中国股票市场仍然存在主动融资机制,对于高流通市值公司尤为突出.但现行投、融资行政审批制度的政策约束会造成股票定价偏高--低成本发行新股融资--实际投资上升的传导时滞.     

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

The risk–return relation in the corporate loan market

This paper analyzes the hypothesis that returns play a risk-compensating role in the market for corporate revolving lines of credit. Specifically, we test whether borrower risk and the expected return on these debt instruments are positively related. Our main findings support this prediction, in contrast to the only previous work that examined this problem two decades ago. Nevertheless, we find evidence of mispricing regarding the risk of deteriorating firms using their facilities more intensively and during the subprime crisis.     

R&D Reporting Biases and Their Consequences*

The immediate expensing of research and development (R&D) expenditures is often justified by the conservatism principle. However, no accounting procedure consistently applied can be conservative throughout the firm's life. We therefore ask the following questions: (1) When is the expensing of R&D conservative and when is it aggressive, relative to R&D capitaliza‐tion? (2) What are the capital‐market implications of these reporting biases? To address these questions we construct a model of profitability biases (differences between reported profitability under R&D expensing and capitalization) and show that the key drivers of the reporting biases are the differences between R&D growth and earnings growth (momentum), and between R&D growth and return on equity (ROE). Companies with a high R&D growth rate relative to their profitability (typically early life‐cycle companies) report conservatively, while firms with a low R&D growth rate (mature companies) tend to report aggressively under current generally accepted accounting principles. Our empirical analysis, covering the period 1972‐2003, generally supports the analytical predictions. In the valuation analysis we find evidence consistent with investor fixation on the reported profitability measures: we detect undervaluation of conservatively reporting firms and overvaluation of aggressively reporting firms. These misvaluations appear to be corrected when the reporting biases reverse from conservative to aggressive and vice versa. This evidence is consistent with behavioral finance arguments about investor cognitive biases.     

从股票错误定价看投资-现金流敏感性

在传统的投资-现金流敏感性研究基础上,本文运用中国上市公司2003-2008年面板数据,考察了盈余管理造成的股票错误定价对公司投资-现金流敏感性的影响.本文的实证结果表明:当股价处于上升通道中时(即投资者看好投资前景时),公司的投资-现金流敏感性较高,并且融资约束对公司的投资-现金流敏感性影响显著,但盈余操纵导致错误定价对公司投资-现金流敏感性影响不大;股指处于下降通道时,通过盈余操纵导致股价高估的公司,往往无法获得外部股权融资,只体现了更高的稳定股价和投资的意愿,因此,此类公司的投资-现金流敏感性较高.本文运用信息不对称理论,结合投资者情绪和管理者行为分析,对研究结果进行了解释并指出了后续研究的方向.     

Do investors misprice components of net periodic pension cost?

We examine whether and how investors misprice the components of net periodic pension cost under SFAS No. 87 and 158. We find that investors appear to have difficulty in understanding the transitory feature of other net periodic pension cost (PPOPCC) and thus overestimate its persistence, which in turn leads to the mispricing of PPOPCC in the pre‐158 period. We also find that SFAS No. 158 appears to reduce the mispricing of PPOPCC, suggesting a positive effect of SFAS No. 158 on investors' valuation of pension items in the income statement. Additional analysis suggests that investors also overestimate the persistence of, and thus misprice, pension‐related cash flows and accruals in the pre‐158 period and that SFAS No. 158 reduces the mispricing of pension‐related cash flows and accruals.     

How does the corporate bond market value capital investments and accruals?

This paper examines whether the mispricing of accruals documented in equity markets extends to bond markets. The paper finds that corporate bonds of firms with high operating accruals underperform corporate bonds of firms with low operating accruals. In the first year after portfolio formation, the underperformance is 115 basis points using an accrual measure that includes capital investments and 93 basis points using an accrual measure that is based only on working capital investments. The Sharpe ratios of the zero-investment bond accrual portfolios are comparable to those of the corresponding zero-investment stock accrual portfolios. The results are also robust to risk adjustments based on both a factor model consisting of the Fama and French (J. Financial Econ 33 (1993) 3) stock and bond market factors and a characteristics model based on bond ratings and duration. Cross-sectional Fama–MacBeth regressions that use individual bond data and control for stock and bond issuances in addition to ratings and duration also confirm the time-series portfolio findings. Overall, our results reveal an accrual anomaly among bonds similar to that observed among stocks.

媒体关注的治理效应及其治理机制研究

作为法律外的制度,媒体关注是否具有治理效应?其作用机制是什么?这些问题已成为当前财务学研究的热点问题。本文选择2004-2008年中国A股上市企业为研究样本,聚焦上市公司会计信息的披露问题,系统性分析了媒体关注、盈余操纵及应计误定价之间的关系。研究发现:(1)在控制内生性问题后,媒体关注和管理层盈余操纵存在显著负向关系,表明媒体关注度的提高有助于抑制管理层主观的盈余操纵行为;(2)通过"Mishkin检验"发现我国A股市场整体上存在应计误定价现象,并且这种应计误定价主要是由于操纵性应计误定价引起的,表明管理层的盈余操纵行为是应计误定价的重要成因;(3)通过多种方法联合检验发现媒体关注与应计误定价之间存在显著负向关系,表明媒体关注度的提高能够有效提高市场对会计盈余构成信息的定价效率,减少应计误定价情况的出现。总体来看,媒体关注具有深度治理效应,其作用机制是:媒体关注有效抑制了管理层盈余操纵行为,从而提高了会计信息质量并最终提升了市场对盈余构成信息的定价效率,减少了应计误定价情况的出现。