Dynamic response of bank-intermediated trade finance to a global liquidity shock

This paper investigates the bank-level responses of a bank-intermediated instrument of trade finance to a negative global liquidity shock in Korea. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregression approach, the results show that there exists significant heterogeneity in bank-level trade-finance responses to a global liquidity shock. In addition, we find that the source of the heterogeneity is the bank-level foreign currency liquidity condition; banks with a better foreign currency liquidity condition may dampen the negative impact of a global liquidity shock on trade-finance.     

Contracting and Reporting Conservatism around a Change in Fiduciary Duties*

We exploit an influential 1991 Delaware court ruling to examine simultaneously two types of conservatism that play important roles in resolving creditor–owner agency conflicts: contracting conservatism and reporting conservatism. The ruling expanded managerial fiduciary duties in favor of creditors for Delaware-incorporated firms in the vicinity of insolvency. In those firms, following the ruling, debt contracts are less likely to include conservative adjustments to accounting numbers used for covenant compliance (i.e., contracting conservatism decreases), while public financial reporting becomes more conservative (i.e., reporting conservatism increases). The decrease in contracting conservatism is concentrated in firms that exhibit a greater increase in reporting conservatism, suggesting that reporting conservatism is more cost-effective in resolving agency conflicts. In addition, the substitution effect is more pronounced in firms facing greater business uncertainty and firms with greater board independence.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Machine learning for financial transaction classification across companies using character-level word embeddings of text fields

An important initial step in accounting is mapping financial transfers to the corresponding accounts. We devised machine-learning-based systems that automate this process. They use word embeddings with character-level features to process transaction texts. When considering 473 companies independently, our approach achieved an average top-1 accuracy of 80.50%, outperforming baselines that exclude the transaction texts or rely on a lexical bag-of-words text representation. We extended the approach to generalizes across companies and even across different corporate sectors. After standardization of the account structures and careful feature engineering, a single classifier trained on 44 companies from 28 sectors achieved a test accuracy of more than 80%. When trained on 43 companies and tested on the remaining one, the system achieved an average performance of 64.62%. This rate increased to nearly 70% when considering only the largest sector.     

Some Potential Linkages for Input-Output Analysis with Flow-of-Funds

Three major, interrelated accounting statements, at the frontiers of quantitative economic analysis, are three interrelated systems, namely: (1) National income and product accounts (NIPA), (2) The input-output tableaux, (IO), and (3) flow-of- funds accounts (FF). The third-mentioned system is somewhat less available and used in only limited areas of macroeconomic analysis. This paper is mainly concerned with use of FF accounting systems. This system shows where financial resources originate, and where they go in support of real capital formation. In this respect, interest rates and other market-based financial rates are of key importance. While much macroeconomic analysis is based on the rates that fit the yield curve, showing the interest rate structure over various maturities of debt associated with a given degree of risk. In contrast, the FF accounts throw light on the whole spectrum of interest rates, across maturities and debt qualities. For example, in analysis of the real estate market and funding of capital formation there, it is important to have a full understanding of the course of mortgage rates of different maturities and qualities. In short, it is necessary to develop a full appreciation of supply and demand forces in the mortgage market, which often is not obviously related to movements of the operative rate for monetary policy, such as very short-term inter bank rates or call money rates. This paper attempts to provide material from the flow-of-funds accounts that would make it possible to analyze the movement of relevant mortgage rates or whatever other rates are needed to understand the financing of capital formation in real estate.     

试析中小型民营家族制企业财务管理问题及对策

近几年来,民营经济在我国经济中的地位越来越突出。该文在分析家族制管理模式的利弊及其对企业财务管理影响的基础上,对中小型民营家族制企业财务管理存在的问题及改善对策进行了探讨。     

我国国债的风险评估与防范

从国债的可持续性、国债的货币扩张效应、国债对经济增长的影响三个层面评估了我国当前的国债风险，并针对我国的国债特点，提出了防范国债风险的措施。     

对“村财乡管”管理方式的思考

农村税费改革之后,很多地区对村级财务实行了“村财乡管”。本文通过分析认为,“村财乡管”是乡镇一级政府对村级集体财产的越权管理;这种管理方式在对村级集体财务管理产生某些积极效应的同时,也带来了很多不利的影响;村级财务管理的关键还在于加强村民民主理财制度建设,加大财务监督力度。     

Regionalization, public spending and growth: a stylized model dealing with ‘predatory states’

In this paper, a micro-founded model analyzing the effects of ‘regionalization’ on economic activity is developed. It shows that the spatial division of public competencies can have an impact on the growth rate via the efficiency of governmental choices: initially advantageous for weak levels, decentralization (/reduction of regional size) becomes limited due to the risk of underestimation of the real profitability of public expenditure by local governments (non-internalized cross-border effects). In accordance with the theory, a transversal estimation for a sample of 51 countries for the 1990s establishes a ‘bell-shaped’ relation between indicators of regionalization and the quality of governance.     

国债规模的均衡数量及优化

笔者基于世代交叠模型,假定政府执行赤字预算体制,在市场结清的均衡状态下得到了确定国债规模与私人资本规模之比值的解析式。通过模拟发现税率、基本财政支出率、产出关于私人资本的弹性等是决定该比值大小的主要因素。