农业供应链金融视角的农户信贷约束缓解效应研究——来自湖南农户的经验证据

采用多元多值非条件Logistic回归方法,依据湖南省50个县(市、区)1059个农户样本数据,考察农业供应链金融对农户信贷约束的缓解效应。结果显示：农户参与农业供应链金融能够缓解供给型与需求型农户信贷约束,缓解效应随着农户收入增长、金融发展和农户社会资本提升而减弱,机制检验证实了信息对称、信用等级、交易成本、抵押替代在缓解农户信贷约束过程中起到部分中介效应。鉴于此,需要在创新模式、优化环境以及加强引导上着力发展农业供应链金融。     

Using technology to improve the management of development impacts on biodiversity

The mitigation hierarchy (MH) is a prominent tool to help businesses achieve no net loss or net gain outcomes for biodiversity. Technological innovations offer benefits for business biodiversity management, yet the range and continued evolution of technologies creates a complex landscape that can be difficult to navigate. Using literature review, online surveys, and semi-structured interviews, we assess technologies that can improve application of the MH. We identify six categories (mobile survey, fixed survey, remote sensing, blockchain, data analysis, and enabling technologies) with high feasibility and/or relevance to (i) aid direct implementation of mitigation measures and (ii) enhance biodiversity surveys and monitoring, which feed into the design of interventions including avoidance and minimization measures. At the interface between development and biodiversity impacts, opportunities lie in businesses investing in technologies, capitalizing on synergies between technology groups, collaborating with conservation organizations to enhance institutional capacity, and developing practical solutions suited for widespread use.     

Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

Use of biofuels diminishes fossil fuelcombustion thereby also reducing net greenhousegas emissions. However, subsidies are neededto make agricultural biofuel productioneconomically feasible. To explore the economicpotential of biofuels in a greenhouse gasmitigation market, we incorporate data onproduction and biofuel processing for thedesignated energy crops switchgrass, hybridpoplar, and willow in an U.S. AgriculturalSector Model along with data on traditionalcrop-livestock production and processing, andafforestation of cropland. Net emissioncoefficients on all included agriculturalpractices are estimated through crop growthsimulation models or taken from the literature. Potential emission mitigation policies ormarkets are simulated via hypothetical carbonprices. At each carbon price level, theAgricultural Sector Model computes the newmarket equilibrium, revealing agriculturalcommodity prices, regionally specificproduction, input use, and welfare levels,environmental impacts, and adoption ofalternative management practices such asbiofuel production. Results indicate no rolefor biofuels below carbon prices of $40 perton of carbon equivalent. At these incentivelevels, emission reductions via reduced soiltillage and afforestation are more costefficient. For carbon prices above $70,biofuels dominate all other agriculturalmitigation strategies.     

石灰岩地区小水库除险加固工程的经济社会效益分析

简要介绍石灰岩地区小水库的特点、存在问题以及综合采用灌浆、复合土工膜覆盖和坡面复合式防渗等技术集成的加固方案。以江苏省徐州市石灰岩地区的5座小水库为例,参照相关规范分析水库工程取得的社会效益和生态效益,从防洪、灌溉和多种经营效益等方面详细计算了病险水库除险加固工程的经济效益。根据工程的实际资料,采用国民经济评价方法,对5座小水库除险加固工程的经济内部收益率、经济效益费用比、经济净现值3项指标进行了分析。结果表明,该工程在经济上是合理的,具有显著的社会效益和环境生态效益。     

2000～2010年我国洪涝灾害损失综合评估及其成因分析

利用我国的洪涝灾害损失数据,分析了我国2000～2010年洪涝灾害受灾人口、农业受灾面积和直接受灾经济损失之间的关系,洪涝灾害损失的空间分布特征以及受灾损失与年平均降水量之间的关系。根据近10年来我国洪涝灾害的新特点,提出了我国洪水管理及防灾减灾的若干措施。     

Payments for environmental services to promote “climate‐smart agriculture”? Potential and challenges

Payments for environmental services (PES) have gained wide popularity as approaches to promote environmentally friendly land use or agricultural production practices. Yet academics have also voiced concerns against seeing PES as a panacea. This article discusses whether PES is an appropriate and promising approach to promote so‐called “climate‐smart agriculture” (CSA) practices, which we define as agricultural production practices that contribute to CO₂ emission reductions and/or removals and provide benefits to farmers via increased productivity and profits and reduced vulnerability to climate change. PES appears most promising for the promotion of CSA practices in small‐scale farming contexts with low incomes. Effective design, however, requires solid estimates of cost and benefit flows from CSA adoption over time, accounting for differences in socioeconomic and ecological conditions, and addressing the risk of leakage. Funding for such PES will likely have to come from public sources, and seems most promising where synergies with other objectives such as agricultural development, food security, and climate adaptation or other environmental services exist. The potential of alternative approaches for CSA support such as taxation with rebates for CSA practices, CSA‐related investment support such as microcredits, and hybrid approaches such as conditional microcredit should be further investigated.     

Can tourism be part of the decarbonized global economy? The costs and risks of alternate carbon reduction policy pathways

Global leaders agree on the need to substantially decarbonize the global economy by 2050. This paper compares potential costs associated with different policy pathways to achieve tourism sector emission reduction ambitions (?50% by 2035) and transform the sector to be part of the mid-century decarbonized economy (?70% by 2050). Investment in emissions abatement within the tourism sector, combined with strategic external carbon offsets, was found to be approximately 5% more cost effective over the period 2015–2050 than exclusive reliance on offsetting. The cost to achieve the ?50% target through abatement and strategic offsetting, while significant, represents less than 0.1% of the estimated global tourism economy in 2020 and 3.6% in 2050. Distributed equally among all tourists (international and domestic), the cost of a low-carbon tourism sector is estimated at US$11 per trip, equivalent to many current travel fees or taxes. Exclusive reliance on offsetting would expose the sector to extensive and continued carbon liability costs beyond mid-century and could be perceived as climate inaction, increasing reputational risks and the potential for less efficient regulatory interventions that could hinder sustainable tourism development. Effective tourism sector leadership is needed to develop a strategic tourism policy framework and emission measurement and reporting system.     

我国刑罚轻缓化的经济分析——兼论罚金刑和自由刑的适用

刑罚轻缓化已经成为刑罚结构改革的总体趋势,通过对刑罚轻缓化的经济分析,我们可以挖掘出刑罚轻缓化背后深层次的原因,那就是＂高概率的惩罚与轻刑化＂的组合是预防和控制犯罪最为经济有效的方式,而轻刑化即我们所谓的刑罚轻缓化。在刑罚轻缓化的背景之下,透视罚金刑与自由刑的适用,我们可以发现罚金刑更符合刑罚轻缓化之意旨,应提升到主刑的地位,未来我国的刑罚结构改革也应以罚金刑为主导,而自由刑只起辅助的作用。     

Restoring Wetlands Through Wetlands Mitigation Banks

This paper offers the first economic analysis of wetlands mitigation banks. The banks are a new alternative for restoration of wetlands by developers before receiving regulatory approval for future development of wetlands in the same watershed. A stochastic optimal control model is developed which incorporates ecological uncertainty of wetlands restoration. The model helps in examining the decisions of how much to invest in a wetlands mitigation bank. The model is calibrated with data from California bioeconomic parameters. Numerical simulation of the model provides a sensitivity analysis of how model parameters of restoration costs, stochastic biological growth, interest rate, and the market value of credits affect the trajectory of investment and the optimal stopping state of wetlands quality when the investment ends. The analysis reveals that restoration of the whole site will occur when there is a reduction in restoration costs, an increase in biological uncertainty or an increase in the value of wetlands credits. Continued restoration is harder to justify with a higher interest rate.