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121.
Hans-Martin Krolzig Massimiliano Marcellino Grayham E. Mizon 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(2):233-254
There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this
paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid
1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the
phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component.
The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and
output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction
model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the
sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis
highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate
the advantages of generating regime dependent responses.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001 相似文献
122.
Herbert Dawid 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1996,6(4):361-373
We analyze the learning behaviour of a Simple Genetic Algorithm in an overlapping generations model with one consumption
good and fiat money. It is shown by simulations, that in cases where periodic equilibria exist the equilibrium of period two
is learned by a Genetic Algorithm and not the monetary steady state. We further show that proper coding leads to convergence
of the GA towards the sunspot equilibrium. If individuals who believe in the impact of sunspots are brought together with
individuals who ignore the sunspots, the sunspot believes will in most cases drive the other individuals out of the population. 相似文献
123.
物资管理可视化系统的研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
通过仓库物资管理综合信息平台设计,介绍了物资管理可视系统结构,功能和仓库基本业务信息平台结构框架模型。 相似文献
124.
Harley B. Messinger 《Socio》1977,11(6):323-330
Dimensional analysis has been defined variously as the synthesis of dimensionless variables and as a way of spatially representing data. While in sociometrics, one may not be able to devise models resembling those of the physical sciences because of the complexity of many social situations, one may in some cases successfully apply the techniques of classic dimensional analysis and get empirically valid results. More often we derive with analytic methods from the social sciences different kinds of dimensional frameworks in which to represent data. This paper will compare these approaches to the study of relationships and give examples of where each might be appropriate. Finally, a classification of the analytical methods will be presented. 相似文献
125.
Francesca Biagini 《Decisions in Economics and Finance》2002,25(1):1-17
The mean-variance hedging approach for pricing and hedging claims in incomplete markets was originally introduced for risky
assets. The aim of this paper is to apply this approach to interest rate models in the presence of stochastic volatility,
seen as a consequence of incomplete information. We fix a finite number of bonds such that the volatility matrix is invertible
and provide an explicit formula for the density of the variance-optimal measure which is independent of the chosen times of
maturity.
Finally, we compute the mean-variance hedging strategy for a caplet and compare it with the optimal stategy according to the
local risk minimizing approach.
Received: 14 July 2000 / Accepted: 10 April 2001 相似文献
126.
Alessandro Petretto 《Economics of Governance》2000,1(3):213-232
In this paper we analyse in formal terms the desirability of the regionalisation of a National Health Service. The policy
consists of a devolution process, i.e. the increase in the health services provision to be decided by a region and financed
by an increase in its revenues. The change is a marginal one, as it regards the part of supply of the health services exceeding
a minimum standard, which for purposes of equity is maintained uniform in the national territory. As the central government
is responsible for this component of the provision of health care (a federal “mandate”), the level of the said component is
chosen by this authority and financed by federal taxation. Moreover, the government also applies an equalisation scheme based
on the difference between a standard level of tax revenues and the revenues which the region is deemed able to raise for this
purpose. Within the theoretical context of welfare improving reforms with distortionary taxation, we derive two conditions
which focus on the regional, as well as the social, convenience of regionalisation.
Received: May 5, 1999 / Accepted: January 21, 2000 相似文献
127.
A theory of sequential reciprocity 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
Many experimental studies indicate that people are motivated by reciprocity. Rabin [Amer. Econ. Rev. 83 (1993) 1281] develops techniques for incorporating such concerns into game theory and economics. His theory is developed for normal form games, and he abstracts from information about the sequential structure of a strategic situation. We develop a theory of reciprocity for extensive games in which the sequential structure of a strategic situation is made explicit, and propose a new solution concept—sequential reciprocity equilibrium—for which we prove an equilibrium existence result. The model is applied in several examples, and it is shown that it captures very well the intuitive meaning of reciprocity as well as certain qualitative features of experimental evidence. 相似文献
128.
Summary. In this paper, we establish the most possilbe general formulation of the technology governing carbon-gas emission, giving
rise to global external diseconomies, and ty to explore into the strategic interactions,both domestic and international, when
an individual country decides on the environmental policies. Through the comparison among emission taxes, quotas, and standard
in the perfectly competitive private economies, we find that the first two policies are equivalent but they are different
in effects by virtue of what we may call the tax-exemption effect of emission standards. Such a difference in the policy effect
further affects the other country's welfare through the global externalities, amplified through whether the government can
precommit to either the emission tax or the emission standard.
Received: January 16, 2001; revised version: April 16, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" The authors thank the valuable comments by an anonymous referee. Ministry of Education and Science for its financial
support is also greatly acknowledged.
Correspondence to:K. Kiyono 相似文献
129.
Joïlle Noailly Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh Cees A. Withagen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2003,13(2):183-200
Abstract. Economic theories of managing renewable resources, such as fisheries and forestry, traditionally assume that individual harvesters
are perfectly rational and thus able to compute the harvesting strategy that maximizes their discounted profits. The current
paper presents an alternative approach based on bounded rationality and evolutionary mechanisms. It is assumed that individual
harvesters face a choice between two harvesting strategies. The evolution of the distribution of strategies in the population
is modeled through a replicator dynamics equation. The latter captures the idea that strategies yielding above average profits
are demanded more than strategies yielding below average profits, so that the first type ends up accounting for a larger part
in the population. From a mathematical perspective, the combination of resource and evolutionary processes leads to complex
dynamics. The paper presents the existence and stability conditions for each steady-state of the system and analyzes dynamic
paths to the equilibrium. In addition, effects of changes in prices are analyzed. A main result of the paper is that under
certain conditions both strategies can survive in the long-run.
Correspondence to: J. Noailly 相似文献
130.
Summary. We show, in the Choquet expected utility model, that preference for diversification, that is, convex preferences, is equivalent
to a concave utility index and a convex capacity. We then introduce a weaker notion of diversification, namely “sure diversification.”
We show that this implies that the core of the capacity is non-empty. The converse holds under concavity of the utility index,
which is itself equivalent to the notion of comonotone diversification, that we introduce. In an Anscombe-Aumann setting,
preference for diversification is equivalent to convexity of the capacity and preference for sure diversification is equivalent
to non-empty core. In the expected utility model, all these notions of diversification are equivalent and are represented
by the concavity of the utility index.
Received: July 27, 1999; revised version: November 7, 2000 相似文献